Alert archive / Florida / River Flood Warnings in 2019

River Flood Warning 13, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

July 31, 2019Hillsborough County, Florida

NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this river flood warning at Jul 31, 2019, 9:47 AM EDT for Hillsborough County, Florida. It took effect at Aug 1, 2019, 6:48 PM EDT. It was in force for 35 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 31, 2019, 9:47 AM EDT (13:47 UTC)
In effect from: Aug 1, 2019, 6:48 PM EDT
Expired: Aug 3, 2019, 6:00 AM EDT
In force: 35 hr
Issued by: NWS Tampa Bay, FL
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

County Hillsborough County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 7 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Little Manatee River near Wimauma at US 301 (WIMF1). The gauge peaked at 10.05 ft at Aug 3, 2019, 9:00 AM EDT.

Action stage: 9.5 ft
Minor stage: 11 ft
Moderate stage: 14.5 ft
Major stage: 17 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02300500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

333 
WGUS42 KTBW 311347
FLWTBW
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
947 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

...The National Weather Service in Tampa Fl has issued a Flood 
Warning for the following rivers...

  Alafia River At Lithia 
  Little Manatee River At Wimauma 

.Due to recent heavy rainfall, the Alafia River At Lithia and the 
Little Manatee River at Wimauma have begun to rise. With additional 
rainfall expected, these rivers are forecast to continue to rise and 
should be in flood stage by tomorrow night. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The 
latest forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can 
follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

&&

FLC057-010247-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FL.W.0012.190802T0336Z-190804T0000Z/
/LITF1.1.ER.190802T0336Z.190802T1800Z.190803T1800Z.NO/
947 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

The National Weather Service in Tampa Fl has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Alafia River At Lithia
* From Thursday evening until Saturday evening.
* At 09 AM Wednesday the stage was...9.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow late 
  evening and continue to rise to near 14.3 feet by Friday 
  evening.the river is expected to fall below flood stage by Saturday
  early afternoon.
* Impact...at 15.0 feet...Additional residences downstream of County
  Road 640 bridge begin flooding.
* Impact...at 13.0 feet...River Drive and Squirrel Run Way 
  downstream of County Road 640 are completely covered by water. One 
  home begins to flood.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...Water begins to affect River Drive and 
  Squirrel Run Way downstream of County Road 640.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 14.3 feet 
  on Oct 20 1944.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon

Alafia
 Lithia       13.0   9.9  Wed 09 AM  10.5   14.0   13.6   11.4   10.1


&&


LAT...LON 2787 8218 2784 8228 2789 8228 2792 8218




$$

FLC057-010247-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FL.W.0013.190801T2248Z-190803T1000Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.190801T2248Z.190802T1200Z.190803T0400Z.NO/
947 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

The National Weather Service in Tampa Fl has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Little Manatee River At Wimauma
* From Thursday evening until Saturday morning.
* At 09 AM Wednesday the stage was...8.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow evening
  and continue to rise to near 11.6 feet by Friday morning.the river 
  is expected to fall below flood stage by early Saturday morning.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...The river overflows its banks.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 11.6 feet 
  on Sep 2 1959.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon

Little Manatee
 Wimauma      11.0   8.7  Wed 09 AM  10.2   11.6   10.5    8.5    6.8


&&


LAT...LON 2763 8231 2764 8243 2770 8243 2770 8231




$$

2 follow-up statements

842 
WGUS82 KTBW 311353
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
953 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...

  Alafia River At Lithia 
  Little Manatee River At Wimauma 
  Peace River At Bartow 

.Due to recent heavy rainfall, the Alafia River At Lithia, the 
Little Manatee River At Wimauma, and the Peace River at Bartow are 
forecast to be in flood stage by tomorrow. While these rivers are 
forecast to begin receding by this weekend, additional heavy 
rainfall could cause the rivers to rise further.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The 
latest forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can 
follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

&&

FLC057-011353-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0012.190802T0336Z-190804T0000Z/
/LITF1.1.ER.190802T0336Z.190802T1800Z.190803T1800Z.NO/
953 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Alafia River At Lithia
* From tomorrow late evening through Saturday evening.
* At 09 AM Wednesday the stage was 9.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow late 
  evening and continue to rise to near 14.3 feet by Friday evening. 
  The river is expected to fall below flood stage by Saturday early 
  afternoon.
* Impact...at 15.0 feet...Additional residences downstream of County
  Road 640 bridge begin flooding.
* Impact...at 13.0 feet...River Drive and Squirrel Run Way 
  downstream of County Road 640 are completely covered by water. One 
  home begins to flood.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...Water begins to affect River Drive and 
  Squirrel Run Way downstream of County Road 640.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 14.3 feet 
  on Oct 20 1944.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon

Alafia
 Lithia       13.0   9.9  Wed 09 AM  10.5   14.0   13.6   11.4   10.1


&&


LAT...LON 2787 8218 2784 8228 2789 8228 2792 8218




$$

FLC057-011353-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0013.190801T2248Z-190803T1000Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.190801T2248Z.190802T1200Z.190803T0400Z.NO/
953 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Little Manatee River At Wimauma
* From tomorrow evening through Saturday morning.
* At 09 AM Wednesday the stage was 8.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow evening
  and continue to rise to near 11.6 feet by Friday morning. The river
  is expected to fall below flood stage by early Saturday morning.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...The river overflows its banks.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 11.6 feet 
  on Sep 2 1959.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon

Little Manatee
 Wimauma      11.0   8.7  Wed 09 AM  10.2   11.6   10.5    8.5    6.8


&&


LAT...LON 2763 8231 2764 8243 2770 8243 2770 8231




$$

FLC105-011353-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BARF1.3.ER.190730T0530Z.190731T0045Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
953 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Peace River At Bartow
* From tomorrow early afternoon through further notice.
* At 09 AM Wednesday the stage was 7.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 8.2 feet by early Sunday morning. 
  Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...at 8.0 feet...Private roads downstream flood.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 8.2 feet 
  on Sep 29 1948.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon

Peace
 Bartow        8.0   7.8  Wed 09 AM   7.9    8.0    8.1    8.2    8.2


&&


LAT...LON 2791 8178 2762 8176 2762 8184 2791 8186




$$

641 
WGUS82 KTBW 011310
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
910 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...The Flood Warning is canceled for the following rivers in 
Florida... 

  Cypress Creek At Worthington Gardens 
  Alafia River At Lithia 
  Little Manatee River At Wimauma 


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...

  Peace River At Bartow 

.With the exception of the Peace River at Bartow, rivers previously 
in flood stage have fallen below flood stage overnight, prompting 
the cancellation of warnings. Due to recent heavy rainfall, the 
Peace River At Bartow will remain in flood stage for the next 
several days. Additional heavy rainfall could cause rivers to rise 
once again. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The 
latest forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can 
follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

&&

FLC105-021309-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BARF1.3.ER.190730T0530Z.190731T0045Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
910 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Peace River At Bartow
* From after midnight tomorrow through further notice.
* At 08 AM Thursday the stage was 7.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by after midnight tomorrow and 
  continue to rise to near 8.3 feet by Monday evening. Additional 
  rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...at 8.0 feet...Private roads downstream flood.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 8.3 feet 
  on Sep 14 2002.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue

Peace
 Bartow        8.0   7.9  Thu 08 AM   8.0    8.1    8.2    8.2    8.3


&&


LAT...LON 2791 8178 2762 8176 2762 8184 2791 8186




$$

FLC101-011340-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-190803T1800Z/
/WRGF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
910 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Cypress Creek At Worthington Gardens
* Until Saturday afternoon.
* At 08 AM Thursday the stage was 7.7 feet.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Impact...at 8.0 feet...Flooding begins at the recreation area on 
  State Road 54.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 8.1 feet 
  on Jul 27 2013.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue

Cypress Creek
 Worthington   8.0   7.7  Thu 08 AM   7.7    7.6    7.5    7.3    7.1


&&


LAT...LON 2819 8234 2814 8234 2814 8240 2819 8240




$$

FLC057-011340-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-190804T0000Z/
/LITF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
910 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Alafia River At Lithia
* Until Saturday evening.
* At 08 AM Thursday the stage was 11.6 feet.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Impact...at 13.0 feet...River Drive and Squirrel Run Way 
  downstream of County Road 640 are completely covered by water. One 
  home begins to flood.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...Water begins to affect River Drive and 
  Squirrel Run Way downstream of County Road 640.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 13.0 feet 
  on Jul 21 1959.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue

Alafia
 Lithia       13.0  11.6  Thu 08 AM  12.0   12.5   11.4    9.8    8.8


&&


LAT...LON 2787 8218 2784 8228 2789 8228 2792 8218




$$

FLC057-011340-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190803T1000Z/
/WIMF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
910 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Little Manatee River At Wimauma
* Until Saturday morning.
* At 08 AM Thursday the stage was 8.2 feet.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...The river overflows its banks.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 11.0 feet 
  on Oct 11 1971.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue

Little Manatee
 Wimauma      11.0   8.2  Thu 08 AM   9.3   10.1   10.5    9.3    7.6


&&


LAT...LON 2763 8231 2764 8243 2770 8243 2770 8231




$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jul 31, 9:32 AM EDT, 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 9:32 AM EDT, 15 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
932 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

.UPDATE...
A mid and upper level trough over the central Gulf combined with
high pressure from the Atlantic extending west across the north
central peninsula and into the eastern Gulf is supporting a light
southeast to southerly wind flow across the forecast area early
this morning. Morning raob data here at TBW and at the XMR shows
a moist airmass across the central peninsula with PW's in the 1.7
to 2 inch range. This moisture combined with daytime heating will
support scattered to numerous showers and storms developing along
the sea breeze boundaries during the afternoon, with the best
convective coverage setting up down the spine of the peninsula
along the east/west coast sea breeze merger during the late
afternoon and evening hours. The weak steering flow will favor
slow moving storms with locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding
possible. In addition frequent lightning strikes and strong gusty
winds will accompany the storms. The current forecast has a good
handle on all of this, so no changes are required at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Developing SHRA/TSRA will bring some brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys to
the terminals between 19-03Z and have handled with VCTS for now,
otherwise VFR is expected. Light east to southeast winds around 5
knots will prevail except becoming west to northwest at 7 to 9
knots at the coastal sites after 18Z as the sea breeze develops,
with higher gusts in the vicinity of TSRA. Light and variable
winds will return after 03Z tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
East-southeast winds in the 5 to 10 knot range with seas of 2
feet or less will continue over the Gulf waters the remainder of
today as high pressure remains in control. Wind and seas will be
higher near thunderstorms, otherwise no headlines are expected.
Ongoing forecast is on track with no changes expected in the next
forecast update around 10 AM.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/McMichael
UPPER AIR...Flannery
DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 31, 9:47 AM EDT	River Flood Warning	TBW	Hillsborough	3 days
Jul 31, 5:01 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Pasco	29 min
Jul 31, 5:23 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TBW		52 min
Jul 31, 6:25 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TBW		50 min
Jul 31, 6:48 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TBW		42 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Florida, 2019 Every river flood warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.