River Flood Warning 12, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
932 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

.UPDATE...
A mid and upper level trough over the central Gulf combined with
high pressure from the Atlantic extending west across the north
central peninsula and into the eastern Gulf is supporting a light
southeast to southerly wind flow across the forecast area early
this morning. Morning raob data here at TBW and at the XMR shows
a moist airmass across the central peninsula with PW's in the 1.7
to 2 inch range. This moisture combined with daytime heating will
support scattered to numerous showers and storms developing along
the sea breeze boundaries during the afternoon, with the best
convective coverage setting up down the spine of the peninsula
along the east/west coast sea breeze merger during the late
afternoon and evening hours. The weak steering flow will favor
slow moving storms with locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding
possible. In addition frequent lightning strikes and strong gusty
winds will accompany the storms. The current forecast has a good
handle on all of this, so no changes are required at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Developing SHRA/TSRA will bring some brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys to
the terminals between 19-03Z and have handled with VCTS for now,
otherwise VFR is expected. Light east to southeast winds around 5
knots will prevail except becoming west to northwest at 7 to 9
knots at the coastal sites after 18Z as the sea breeze develops,
with higher gusts in the vicinity of TSRA. Light and variable
winds will return after 03Z tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
East-southeast winds in the 5 to 10 knot range with seas of 2
feet or less will continue over the Gulf waters the remainder of
today as high pressure remains in control. Wind and seas will be
higher near thunderstorms, otherwise no headlines are expected.
Ongoing forecast is on track with no changes expected in the next
forecast update around 10 AM.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/McMichael
UPPER AIR...Flannery
DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn