Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
333 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Shower and thunderstorms will continue to persist several hours
after sunset over land, with the main threats being gusty winds
and heavy rainfall. With PWATs approaching 2" across the region
and weak steering flow in place, localized flooding will be an
issue this afternoon as storms yield rainfall rates of up to
2"/hour at times. As storms wane inland overnight, convection
offshore will pick up. Mostly cloudy skies overnight will preclude
widespread fog, but patchy fog will be possible in areas where
soils are saturated from rains this afternoon. Temperatures
overnight will cool into the low to mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

The weak upper level low that brought widespread showers and
thunderstorms will slowly traverse west across the Gulf coast
through the weekend. In its wake a slightly drier airmass moving
in from the southeast will keep thunderstorm coverage a little
lower through the weekend. Expect shower coverage to be greatest
west of Tallahassee/Albany on Saturday with coverage further
reducing on Sunday where only 30 to 40 POPs are anticipated across
the forecast area and most focused along the seabreeze.

Temperatures will remain in the lower 90s with a potential cool
down (albeit slight) on the horizon for next week as a weak front
pushes southeast.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

The region will be situated between two upper level ridges on
Monday with isolated to scattered showers expected in the
afternoon. Through next week, the upper level ridge to our east
will begin to break down as a large central US trough amplifies
and digs southeast. This trough will bring a weak cold front into
the region on Tuesday but indications are that it will stall
somewhere near the coast or over inland portions of southeast AL
or southern GA. Depending where it stalls, expect locations along
and ahead of the front to remain in a much wetter pattern than
normal. This front should stick around through the middle of next
week and possibly towards the end of the week, though its length
of stay will depend how quickly the Bermuda high rebuilds in from
the east.

With the increased cloud cover with the front, temperatures will
trend cooler and fall into the upper 80s and near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

Scattered SHRA/TSRA continue across parts of the tri-state region at
this hour, with the most likely terminal to see impacts in the next
few hours being VLD. Will have to monitor DHN and TLH for potential
storms moving in later this afternoon. Reductions in CIGS/vsby as
well as gusty and erratic winds will be possible with these storms.
Backed off on fog overnight from the inherited TAFs, but patchy fog
will be possible, especially near terminals that see a lot of
rainfall this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will remain on the lighter side through the next week and
generally at or below 10 knots through the period. Seas will also
remain on the lower side and only around 1 to 3 feet through the
next 7 days. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be greatest in
the overnight and morning hours with lesser coverage expected in
the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

KBDI values have been creeping up, but there's a wet pattern
on tap for the weekend. 20 ft winds will be light and RH
values will be mostly above 50%, so no red flag conditions
are forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Local rivers are below action stage. Rainfall chances return to
normal over the weekend, but looking ahead into next week a cold
front will likely stall somewhere over the southeast bringing the
possibility for well above normal rainfall chances beginning
in the middle of next week.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  92  72  93  73 /  20  50  10  40  10
Panama City   76  87  75  88  76 /  40  40  20  30  20
Dothan        74  91  72  92  73 /  40  60  20  40  10
Albany        74  92  74  93  75 /  40  50  20  30  10
Valdosta      72  91  72  92  73 /  20  40  10  40  10
Cross City    74  92  74  91  74 /  20  30  10  40  10
Apalachicola  76  88  75  88  76 /  40  40  10  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM...Dobbs
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Nguyen
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs

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