Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
333 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Shower and thunderstorms will continue to persist several hours
after sunset over land, with the main threats being gusty winds
and heavy rainfall. With PWATs approaching 2" across the region
and weak steering flow in place, localized flooding will be an
issue this afternoon as storms yield rainfall rates of up to
2"/hour at times. As storms wane inland overnight, convection
offshore will pick up. Mostly cloudy skies overnight will preclude
widespread fog, but patchy fog will be possible in areas where
soils are saturated from rains this afternoon. Temperatures
overnight will cool into the low to mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

The weak upper level low that brought widespread showers and
thunderstorms will slowly traverse west across the Gulf coast
through the weekend. In its wake a slightly drier airmass moving
in from the southeast will keep thunderstorm coverage a little
lower through the weekend. Expect shower coverage to be greatest
west of Tallahassee/Albany on Saturday with coverage further
reducing on Sunday where only 30 to 40 POPs are anticipated across
the forecast area and most focused along the seabreeze.

Temperatures will remain in the lower 90s with a potential cool
down (albeit slight) on the horizon for next week as a weak front
pushes southeast.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

The region will be situated between two upper level ridges on
Monday with isolated to scattered showers expected in the
afternoon. Through next week, the upper level ridge to our east
will begin to break down as a large central US trough amplifies
and digs southeast. This trough will bring a weak cold front into
the region on Tuesday but indications are that it will stall
somewhere near the coast or over inland portions of southeast AL
or southern GA. Depending where it stalls, expect locations along
and ahead of the front to remain in a much wetter pattern than
normal. This front should stick around through the middle of next
week and possibly towards the end of the week, though its length
of stay will depend how quickly the Bermuda high rebuilds in from
the east.

With the increased cloud cover with the front, temperatures will
trend cooler and fall into the upper 80s and near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

Scattered SHRA/TSRA continue across parts of the tri-state region at
this hour, with the most likely terminal to see impacts in the next
few hours being VLD. Will have to monitor DHN and TLH for potential
storms moving in later this afternoon. Reductions in CIGS/vsby as
well as gusty and erratic winds will be possible with these storms.
Backed off on fog overnight from the inherited TAFs, but patchy fog
will be possible, especially near terminals that see a lot of
rainfall this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will remain on the lighter side through the next week and
generally at or below 10 knots through the period. Seas will also
remain on the lower side and only around 1 to 3 feet through the
next 7 days. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be greatest in
the overnight and morning hours with lesser coverage expected in
the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

KBDI values have been creeping up, but there's a wet pattern
on tap for the weekend. 20 ft winds will be light and RH
values will be mostly above 50%, so no red flag conditions
are forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Local rivers are below action stage. Rainfall chances return to
normal over the weekend, but looking ahead into next week a cold
front will likely stall somewhere over the southeast bringing the
possibility for well above normal rainfall chances beginning
in the middle of next week.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  92  72  93  73 /  20  50  10  40  10
Panama City   76  87  75  88  76 /  40  40  20  30  20
Dothan        74  91  72  92  73 /  40  60  20  40  10
Albany        74  92  74  93  75 /  40  50  20  30  10
Valdosta      72  91  72  92  73 /  20  40  10  40  10
Cross City    74  92  74  91  74 /  20  30  10  40  10
Apalachicola  76  88  75  88  76 /  40  40  10  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM...Dobbs
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Nguyen
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
403 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     TSTM WND GST     TALLAHASSEE INTERNATION 30.40N 84.35W
07/19/2019  M44 MPH          LEON               FL   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KTLH TALLAHASSEE INTERNATIONAL
            AIRPORT.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
412 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

GAZ145-146-158-192045-
Colquitt GA-Mitchell GA-Thomas GA-
412 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL...
NORTHWESTERN THOMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN COLQUITT COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
EDT...

At 412 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ochlocknee, or 11 miles southeast of Pelham, moving northeast at 10
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Moultrie, Coolidge, Riverside, Funston, Center Hill, South Moultrie,
Chastain, Moultrie Municipal A/P, Quality, Hartsfield, Bay, Hinsonton
and Murphy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3093 8393 3103 8411 3126 8400 3114 8371
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 212DEG 8KT 3105 8398

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
419 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

ALZ069-GAZ142-192045-
Houston AL-Early GA-
419 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN EARLY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT/345 PM CDT/...

At 418 PM EDT/318 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Columbia, or 13 miles southeast of Headland. This
storm was nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ashford, Columbia, Gordon, Howards Mill, Sigma, Pearce, Rock Hill,
Barber, Pleasant Plains, Farley Nuclear Plant, Cedar Springs, Hilton
and Sawhatchee.

LAT...LON 3114 8498 3118 8524 3131 8523 3131 8509
      3133 8508 3134 8509 3135 8499
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 267DEG 4KT 3124 8515

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
422 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W PLEASANT PLAINS     31.31N 85.28W
07/19/2019                   HOUSTON            AL   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN CR 22 NEAR HOUSTON-HENRY
            COUNTY LINE IN AL.

&&

NGUYEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
436 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

GAZ142-143-192100-
Miller GA-Early GA-
436 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MILLER AND SOUTHERN EARLY
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 436 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Columbia, or 12 miles southwest of Blakely, moving east at 5 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Colquitt, Centerville, Gordon, Damascus, Saffold, Howards Mill,
Mayhaw, Rock Hill, Cuba, Killarney, Enterprise, Harmony Church Rd/hwy
45, Cedar Springs, Old Damascus, Jeterville, Hentown, Hilton and
Sawhatchee.

LAT...LON 3131 8469 3118 8470 3107 8472 3111 8504
      3112 8506 3116 8508 3116 8509 3119 8511
      3123 8510 3126 8511 3128 8511 3129 8509
      3133 8508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 269DEG 6KT 3124 8508

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
448 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

GAZ123>131-144-145-192145-
Tift GA-Worth GA-Dougherty GA-Lee GA-Baker GA-Terrell GA-Irwin GA-
Mitchell GA-Calhoun GA-Turner GA-Ben Hill GA-
448 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR IRWIN AND TURNER COUNTIES IN
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...DOUGHERTY...NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL...
SOUTHWESTERN LEE...NORTHERN BAKER AND EASTERN CALHOUN COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...TIFT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
SOUTHEASTERN TERRELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...BEN HILL AND
WORTH COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 447 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Leary to Ocilla. Movement was east at 10
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Tifton, Albany, Ashburn, Ocilla, Fitzgerald, Sylvester, Putney,
Baconton, Poulan, Ty Ty, Leary, Phillipsburg, Mystic, Unionville,
East Albany, Marine Corps Logistics Base, Turner City, Walker, Worth
and Terrell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3164 8301 3161 8306 3156 8306 3148 8311
      3148 8334 3146 8337 3139 8338 3133 8459
      3162 8459 3164 8458 3162 8458 3162 8455
      3168 8453 3180 8307 3177 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 282DEG 9KT 3147 8456 3160 8325

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