Alert archive / Mississippi / Tornado Watches in 2019

Tornado Watch 507

July 14, 201912 parishes in Louisiana; 17 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jul 14, 2019, 9:45 AM CDT for 12 parishes in Louisiana; 17 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 14, 2019, 9:45 AM CDT (14:45 UTC)
Expired: Jul 14, 2019, 7:00 PM CDT
In force: 9 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 0.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 29 counties

Ascension Parish, LA, East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, East Feliciana Parish, LA, Livingston Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Saint Helena Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, West Baton Rouge Parish, LA, West Feliciana Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Amite County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Marion County, MS, Pike County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Walthall County, MS, Warren County, MS, Wilkinson County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 10%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 5%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 5%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 20%

Warnings issued inside it

19 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 14, 9:45 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LIX	Livingston, Saint Helena, Tangipahoa	30 min
Jul 14, 9:58 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LIX	Saint Helena, Tangipahoa	47 min
Jul 14, 10:07 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	LIX	Ascension, East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Livingston	23 min
Jul 14, 10:12 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LIX	East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, West Baton Rouge	48 min
Jul 14, 10:17 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	LIX	East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana	13 min
Jul 14, 10:27 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	LIX	Ascension, East Baton Rouge, Livingston	33 min
Jul 14, 10:29 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	LIX	Tangipahoa, Washington	16 min
Jul 14, 10:53 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	LIX	East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Livingston, Saint Helena	37 min
Jul 14, 11:04 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	LIX	East Baton Rouge, Livingston	26 min
Jul 14, 11:21 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LIX	East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Livingston, Saint Helena	39 min
Jul 14, 11:35 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LIX	East Feliciana, Saint Helena	40 min
Jul 14, 12:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Franklin, Jefferson, Lincoln	48 min
Jul 14, 12:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LIX	East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Livingston, Saint Helena	32 min
Jul 14, 12:32 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LIX	Saint Helena	13 min
Jul 14, 12:35 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LIX	Ascension, East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Livingston, Saint Helena	3 hr
Jul 14, 12:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Copiah, Jefferson Davis, Lawrence, Marion, Simpson	31 min
Jul 14, 12:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Lincoln	50 min
Jul 14, 1:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LIX	Saint Helena, Tangipahoa	41 min
Jul 14, 3:32 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LIX	Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Livingston, Saint Helena and 1 more	3 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 12:00Z, 2.8 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2565 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -1 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 547 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 8 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 55 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 79 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 2.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 13, 8:22 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Jefferson, Orleans, Saint Tammany, Washington	113 min
Jul 14, 9:20 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Livingston, Saint Helena and 6 more	2 hr
Jul 14, 2:29 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Livingston, Pointe Coupee, Saint Helena, Tangipahoa and 3 more	2 hr
Jul 14, 6:23 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ascension, Assumption, Jefferson, Lafourche, Livingston, Orleans and 10 more	37 min
Jul 13, 11:20 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Covington, Forrest, Jasper, Jones, Lamar, Pearl River and 1 more	115 min
Jul 14, 5:24 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Covington, Forrest, Jasper, Jones, Lamar, Perry and 2 more	66 min
Jul 14, 12:23 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clarke, George, Greene, Itawamba, Kemper, Lauderdale and 8 more	3 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Mississippi, 2019 Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2019 Every tornado watch in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.