Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
416 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Latest surface analysis showed Barry 1005mb low over west central
Louisiana with a 7mb difference from southwest Mississippi to
Mobile Bay. Southeast winds of 10 to 20 knots were common over
the forecast land area and 20 to 25 knots sustained over the
coastal waters this early Sunday morning. Radar continue to show
a large band of rain with embedded storms from central Mississippi
to Lake Pontchartrain to Terrebonne Bay and another from
Lafayette to upper Texas coastal waters. Upper air low associated
with Barry was located over central Louisiana. In addition, a high
was located over the Rockies and another Florida peninsula.
Precipitable water values plots showed 2.2 to 2.4 inches from
upper Texas coast to Mississippi. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Associated surface low and upper level low are expected to slowly
track north over the Mid Mississippi Valley today through
Tuesday. Moisture axis will remain across the forecast area today
through Monday and becoming diffuse going into the Tuesday. Will
maintain elevated rain chances and maintain Flash Flood Watch in
place for all of the forecast area today. An extension of the
watch is possible beyond this afternoon and possibly into Monday.
Hopefully the deep low will open lift northeast on Wednesday.
Moisture axis will become diffuse but moisture will remain in play
Wednesday and Thursday with rain chances remaining slightly
elevated. More breaks equate to high temps back to normal by
Wednesday. Broad upper level high will become more established
from the Plains through the Southeast States and weather regime
becoming more normal later this week and into the weekend. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
Steady moderate south winds on the feeder side of broad circulation
of Tropical Storm Barry will be gusty at times today with daytime
heating and convective gusts from bands of tropical showers and
thunderstorms. General VFR conditions expected outside of
convection, but torrential rain in bands to lower conditions to IFR.
Convection is expected to taper after sunset to maintain VFR CAVOK
conditions tonight, except some better chances of banded convection
at KBTR and KMCB beyond 00Z. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
Gradient onshore flow feeding into the inland circulation of T.S.
Barry to maintain moderate levels today and a continuation of rough
sea state until gradient relaxes later tonight. All tropical storm
warnings have been discontinued for the coastal waters east of the
Atchafalaya River and replaced with Small Craft Advisories this
morning. Residual surge issues should improve steadily throughout
the day but less than the 3 foot criteria. A coastal flood advisory
is in place to run through the next high tide this afternoon, then
tides should fall more in line heading into the evening. Beyond
today, gradient flow becomes replaced by westward extension of
Bermuda ridge into the central Gulf, allowing winds and seas to
settle to lighter levels Monday onward. 24/RR

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code:   Orange.
Deployed:   None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Flash Flood Watch, Coastal Flood Advisory

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
         or excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or
         excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of
         National Significance.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  73  83  73 / 100  90  70  30
BTR  80  74  84  75 /  90  90  70  30
ASD  83  74  87  75 /  90  80  60  30
MSY  83  77  88  78 /  90  80  50  30
GPT  83  75  87  75 /  80  80  50  30
PQL  85  74  88  75 /  70  80  50  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>072.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ040-
     050-058-060>062-064-066>070-072.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT today for GMZ530-532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT today for GMZ532-534-536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
259 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-142000-
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-
East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-St. Tammany-Iberville-
West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-
St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
259 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire outlook area
through this evening, and may be extended in time for portions of
the area into tonight. Bands of tropical showers and storms
at times will be capable of producing torrential rainfall, gusty
winds 35 to 50 mph and occasional lightning. Flash flooding may
result under these bands.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today and
tonight. The primary concern will be brief, weak tornadoes within
the bands of rain. Waterspouts in the near shore waters may move
ashore in the coastal areas before dissipating.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor and slowly
improving coastal flooding along the Louisiana coast and tidal
lakes today. Abnormally high tides 1 to less than 3 feet above
normal will be common this morning, but improving after high tide
this afternoon.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the coastal waters and
tidal lakes through 7 am CDT this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There will still be a threat of heavy rainfall from lingering
rain bands Monday. The outlook area should transition to a more
typical summer pattern of daily scattered afternoon thunderstorms
Tuesday through Saturday.

Depending on short-term rainfall trends, several area rivers and
streams may be in flood. Refer to the latest river flood
statements for more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is still requested for flash flood monitoring
today.

24/RR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
840 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 AM     TORNADO          4 NNE WATSON            30.63N 90.93W
07/14/2019                   LIVINGSTON         LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LIKELY TORNADO DAMAGE ALONG SIMS ROAD NORTH OF WATSON.

&&

CBANNAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
850 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 AM     TORNADO          1 NNE WATSON            30.59N 90.95W
07/14/2019                   LIVINGSTON         LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LIKELY TORNADO DAMAGE ALONG FORE RD...LA HWY 1022...POWER
            LINES DOWN AND LAW ENFORCEMENT ON SITE.

&&

CBANNAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1113 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1033 AM     TORNADO          8 ESE BATON ROUGE       30.40N 91.00W
07/14/2019                   EAST BATON ROUGE   LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF DAMAGE AROUND ANTIOCH AND TIGER BEND
            ROADS. EYEWITNESS REPORTS OF ROTATION AS WELL. LIKELY
            TORNADO.

&&

CBANNAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1138 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 AM     TORNADO          1 W WATSON              30.58N 90.97W
07/14/2019                   LIVINGSTON         LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A FEW TREES DOWN ALONG BEND ROAD IN WATSON. LIKELY
            TORNADO.

&&

CBANNAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1211 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ZACHARY                 30.66N 91.15W
07/14/2019                   EAST BATON ROUGE   LA   PUBLIC

            A FEW TREES DOWN IN ZACHARY.

&&

CBANNAN