Tornado Warning 83, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
629 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 456 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019/

Tropical Storm Barry continues to slowly impact the forecast
area. Barry will continue to slowly move off to the northwest
through tonight. Heavy rainfall is still the main threat across
the area. An additional 6-10 inches of rain is expected with
locally higher amounts in excess of 15 inches are possible. Strong
gusty winds will continue through the night. Power outages are
still possible. Also the threat of tornadoes remain in place as
well. Short term models do depict additional tropical bands
setting up overnight over various portions of the forecast area.
It is still tough to nail down exactly where these bands will set
up. One thing to note is alot of times in tropical systems there
seems to be an nocturnal intensification with convection, and that
would also point to heavy rain being a real threat tonight and
into Sunday. Bermuda high will build in by Tuesday or Wednesday,
returning us to a more normal summer pattern into next weekend.
Area citizens may be contending with flood fight concerns, so
focus may shift to messaging heat stress issues should folks be
involved in recovery activities.

.AVIATION...

Lower ceilings and limited visibility will persist this evening
and into the overnight hours, as tropical bands of showers will
persist keeping flight categories generally MVFR, with periodic
IFR likely at times. More consistent issue will be wind at all
terminals and LLWS at BTR and KHUM through the forecast period.
Wind gusts of 25 to 40 knots not out of the question for many
terminals through tonight and early tomorrow morning. KLG

.MARINE...

Dangerous conditions will continue for at least the next 6-12
hours mainly west of the Mississippi River. Tropical Storm
Warnings have been cancelled east of the Mississippi River and
have been replaced with Small Craft Advisories. Once the other tropical
weather products are cancelled, they will likely be replaced with
Small Craft Advisories headlines as well through Monday. Onshore
flow will gradually weaken by midweek.

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Red.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Tropical operations/Moderate to High Risk excessive rainfall/
            Slight Risk severe weather/River flood warnings.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
         or excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
         HazMat or other large episodes.
Red =    Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or
         excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of
         National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  78  71  84 / 100 100  90  70
BTR  74  79  74  85 / 100  90  90  70
ASD  74  83  74  87 /  90  90  80  60
MSY  76  83  77  88 /  90  90  80  50
GPT  76  83  75  87 /  90  80  80  50
PQL  75  85  74  88 /  90  70  80  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ034>037-040-046>050-056>069-071-
     072.

     Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>072.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ039-070.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ050.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ530-550-552-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-555-557-575-577.

MS...Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ068-069.

     Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for MSZ070-071-077-080>082.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ082.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ550-552-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ534-536-538-
     555-557-575-577.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
438 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-140945-
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-
East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-St. Tammany-Iberville-
West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-
St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
438 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Tropical Storm Barry will continue to impact southeast Louisiana
and southern Mississippi through tonight.

Additional rainfall totals of 6-10 inches forecast along and west
of I-55. Some isolated higher amounts possible. These rainfall
totals are expected to result in flash flooding as well as
moderate to major flooding along area rivers.

A storm surge event is ongoing for coastal regions of southeast
Louisiana and Mississippi as far east as Biloxi. Inundation
ranging 4 to 6 feet along the open Louisiana coast to 3 to 5 feet
across Lake Borgne, the Mississippi coaast, and from the
southwest side of Lake Pontchartrain across the north shore, and
1 to 3 feet across the immediate south shore of Lake Pontchartrain
and all of Lake Maurepas.

Strong, damaging winds near the center of Barry's path, primarily
west of the MS river. Wind gusts 50-60 mph possible. Gusty winds
may still be possible well away from the center.

A few weak/brief tornadoes possible.

For more detailed information regarding the tropics and
associated local threats, please refer to specific local hazard
products.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Conditions will steadily improve on Sunday, but with lingering
rain bands likely producing areas of flash flooding, as well as
isolated tornadoes primarily along and west of I-55.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will continue through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
714 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

LAZ059-061>064-067>069-140115-
Orleans LA-Lower Plaquemines LA-Upper St. Bernard LA-
Lower Jefferson LA-Lower Lafourche LA-Upper Lafourche LA-
Upper Plaquemines LA-Upper Jefferson LA-
714 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING TO DEVELOP...

At 710 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a band of heavy rainfall
beginning to develop over portions of the New Orleans metropolitan
area.  Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are being observed
by radar in this rain band and these rain rates may lead to flooding
issues if the band of rain persists over the same area.  Further
advisories or warnings may be issued if this occurs.

Locations impacted include...
New Orleans, Chalmette, Marrero, Harvey, East New Orleans,
Timberlane, Belle Chasse, Metairie, Jefferson, Gretna, Westwego, Jean
Lafitte, Woodmere, Violet, Terrytown, Lafitte, Meraux, Poydras,
Myrtle Grove and Estelle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this band of rain, and may
lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2936 9019 3002 9015 3004 9000 3015 8988
      3010 8981 3017 8974 3016 8970 3003 8974
      3004 8982 3000 8985 2994 8984 2993 8978
      2980 8985 2948 8996 2943 8999 2944 9002
      2940 9003 2940 9000 2937 9005 2933 9002
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 194DEG 48KT 2990 9000

PG