Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2019

Mesoscale Discussion 521

May 3, 201922 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 3, 2019, 6:48 PM CDT for 22 counties in Texas. It was in force for 57 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 3, 2019, 6:48 PM CDT (23:48 UTC)
Expired
May 3, 2019, 7:45 PM CDT
In force
57 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 22 counties

Atascosa County, TX, Bandera County, TX, Bastrop County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Comal County, TX, DeWitt County, TX, Fayette County, TX, Frio County, TX, Gonzales County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Hays County, TX, Karnes County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Lavaca County, TX, Lee County, TX, Medina County, TX, Travis County, TX, Uvalde County, TX, Wilson County, TX, Zavala County, TX

The radar

The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Del Rio, TX (KDLF), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 211 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2019-05-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 478 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2019-05-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 137 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
478 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-186 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
536 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
137 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
134 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

895 
ACUS11 KWNS 032348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032348 
TXZ000-040045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0521
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 PM CDT Fri May 03 2019

Areas affected...south central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127...

Valid 032348Z - 040045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms will remain capable of producing damaging wind and
large hail over south central Texas through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Early this evening numerous storms persist over south
central Texas from Austin to near Del Rio. Storms remain within an
environment characterized by moderate instability and effective bulk
shear from 35-45 kt, but low-level hodographs are small. This
environment will continue to support some supercell structures, but
numerous storm mergers are occurring and an upscale linear growth
appears to be in progress. The cap is relatively weak in the
downstream warm sector, and storms will continue to forward
propagate as the cold pools consolidate. Both damaging wind and
large hail remain likely, but damaging wind may become the dominant
threat as storms evolve into a linear mode.

..Dial.. 05/03/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29640043 30089893 30569775 30369685 29439678 28619797
            28830030 29640043

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 2, 10:26 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrewster, Dimmit, Kinney, Maverick, Terrell, Val Verde and 2 more2 hr
May 3, 5:45 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooks, Cameron, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Kenedy, Kleberg and 3 more60 min
May 3, 6:13 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrooks, Cameron, Duval, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells and 8 more5 hr
May 3, 7:39 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColorado, DeWitt, Fayette, Lavaca66 min
May 3, 9:59 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooks, Cameron, Duval, Hidalgo, Jim Wells, Kenedy and 4 more16 min
May 3, 12:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFort Bend, Harris, Waller2 hr
May 3, 1:26 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Bailey, Brewster, Cochran, Crane, Dawson and 15 more3 hr
May 3, 3:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAndrews, Bailey, Borden, Brewster, Castro, Cochran and 25 more6 hr
May 3, 4:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Blanco, Comal, Dimmit and 16 more67 min
May 3, 4:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Burnet and 31 more6 hr
May 3, 5:58 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Bailey, Cochran, Crane, Dawson, Ector and 10 more92 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2019Every mesoscale discussion in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.