Special Weather Statement, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1117 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

.AVIATION...

As expected, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
continue developing across SW AR and extreme NE LA late this
evening with these storms expected to continue pushing south and
west overnight towards the MLU and SHV terminals. Expecting MVFR
ceilings with these storms along with wind gusts at or near 30kts
outside any severe thunderstorms that could develop as well as a
quick reduction in visibility. Latest HRRR supports these storms
moving into our NE TX terminals after sunrise so have delayed VCTS
and TEMPO TSRA groups until that time. Could see some recovery
across N LA into S AR by late morning into the afternoon hours on
Sat so have continued the VCTS wording through these periods as
well.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 931 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019/

UPDATE...

Challenging overnight forecast as several parameters coming into
play which suggests an increase in storm coverage overnight into
the day Saturday.

Latest watervapor imagery, IR imagery and radar mosaic showing an
inverted trough axis in the mid levels of the atmosphere, spinning
across eastern Arkansas with upper ridging centered across the
Great Plains. While we have lost evening convection across N LA
attm in the wake of a north to south outflow boundary which pushed
into SW AR and NW LA earlier this evening, new convection has
fired underneath the inverted trough across SE AR and extreme NE
LA. The last couple nights have shown renewed convective nocturnal
storm development underneath this inverted trough axis and we are
already seeing this with some isolated new development noted
across portions of SW AR. This inverted trough is forecast to
drift ESE into N LA overnight and there is good support from both
the HRRR, HREF and 00z NAM output of storm coverage increasing as
we go through the overnight hours across SW AR into N LA through
sunrise. Current forecast has a pretty good handle on this as well
as pop coverage into Saturday but given the timing and lack of
storm coverage late this evening, have repositioned highest pops
through Midnight across our far NE zones, spreading this higher
coverage westward into SW AR and N LA after midnight.

Hourly fcst temps this evening are pretty much in the ballpark as
are overnight low temps and for this reason, have left fcst temps
unchanged. Other changes include a massage of sky and dewpoint
grids, otherwise the forecast for the remainder of the night is in
pretty good shape.

Update out shortly...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  86  71  88 /  40  60  40  40
MLU  72  88  71  90 /  60  40  30  40
DEQ  71  88  70  87 /  20  40  20  40
TXK  72  85  70  87 /  40  50  30  40
ELD  70  86  70  89 /  60  50  30  40
TYR  72  85  70  87 /  10  50  40  40
GGG  72  86  70  87 /  20  60  40  40
LFK  71  86  70  88 /  20  60  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

13/13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
941 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-291200-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
941 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Look for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to
increase in storm coverage and intensity overnight, mainly across
Southwest Arkansas and Northern Louisiana. These storms will have
the capability to produce locally heavy downpours, strong wind
gusts and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible
through Thursday, mainly during peak daytime heating. The stronger
storms may produce gusty winds and brief, locally heavy rainfall.
Localized flash flooding could occur with any slow moving storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

13

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