Severe Thunderstorm Warning 276, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1117 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

.AVIATION...

As expected, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
continue developing across SW AR and extreme NE LA late this
evening with these storms expected to continue pushing south and
west overnight towards the MLU and SHV terminals. Expecting MVFR
ceilings with these storms along with wind gusts at or near 30kts
outside any severe thunderstorms that could develop as well as a
quick reduction in visibility. Latest HRRR supports these storms
moving into our NE TX terminals after sunrise so have delayed VCTS
and TEMPO TSRA groups until that time. Could see some recovery
across N LA into S AR by late morning into the afternoon hours on
Sat so have continued the VCTS wording through these periods as
well.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 931 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019/

UPDATE...

Challenging overnight forecast as several parameters coming into
play which suggests an increase in storm coverage overnight into
the day Saturday.

Latest watervapor imagery, IR imagery and radar mosaic showing an
inverted trough axis in the mid levels of the atmosphere, spinning
across eastern Arkansas with upper ridging centered across the
Great Plains. While we have lost evening convection across N LA
attm in the wake of a north to south outflow boundary which pushed
into SW AR and NW LA earlier this evening, new convection has
fired underneath the inverted trough across SE AR and extreme NE
LA. The last couple nights have shown renewed convective nocturnal
storm development underneath this inverted trough axis and we are
already seeing this with some isolated new development noted
across portions of SW AR. This inverted trough is forecast to
drift ESE into N LA overnight and there is good support from both
the HRRR, HREF and 00z NAM output of storm coverage increasing as
we go through the overnight hours across SW AR into N LA through
sunrise. Current forecast has a pretty good handle on this as well
as pop coverage into Saturday but given the timing and lack of
storm coverage late this evening, have repositioned highest pops
through Midnight across our far NE zones, spreading this higher
coverage westward into SW AR and N LA after midnight.

Hourly fcst temps this evening are pretty much in the ballpark as
are overnight low temps and for this reason, have left fcst temps
unchanged. Other changes include a massage of sky and dewpoint
grids, otherwise the forecast for the remainder of the night is in
pretty good shape.

Update out shortly...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  86  71  88 /  40  60  40  40
MLU  72  88  71  90 /  60  40  30  40
DEQ  71  88  70  87 /  20  40  20  40
TXK  72  85  70  87 /  40  50  30  40
ELD  70  86  70  89 /  60  50  30  40
TYR  72  85  70  87 /  10  50  40  40
GGG  72  86  70  87 /  20  60  40  40
LFK  71  86  70  88 /  20  60  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

13/13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
941 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-291200-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
941 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Look for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to
increase in storm coverage and intensity overnight, mainly across
Southwest Arkansas and Northern Louisiana. These storms will have
the capability to produce locally heavy downpours, strong wind
gusts and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible
through Thursday, mainly during peak daytime heating. The stronger
storms may produce gusty winds and brief, locally heavy rainfall.
Localized flash flooding could occur with any slow moving storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1233 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

ARZ071-072-LAZ001>004-290615-
Lafayette AR-Columbia AR-Bossier LA-Claiborne LA-Caddo LA-Webster LA-
1233 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAFAYETTE AND
SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES...WEBSTER...NORTHWESTERN CADDO...
NORTHWESTERN CLAIBORNE AND NORTHERN BOSSIER PARISHES UNTIL 115 AM
CDT...

At 1232 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shongaloo, or 10 miles east of Springhill, moving southwest at 35
mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Minden, Springhill, Vivian, Haynesville, Cullen, Plain Dealing,
Cotton Valley, Sarepta, Doyline, Taylor, Hosston, Shongaloo, Gilliam,
Bussey, Welcome, Evergreen, Alden Bridge, Leton, Gilark and State
Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3253 9341 3288 9398 3320 9339 3295 9299
TIME...MOT...LOC 0532Z 045DEG 29KT 3301 9329

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
134 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

LAZ001>003-010>012-290715-
De Soto LA-Bossier LA-Bienville LA-Red River LA-Caddo LA-Webster LA-
134 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WEBSTER...NORTHERN DE
SOTO...NORTHWESTERN RED RIVER...SOUTHEASTERN CADDO...WESTERN
BIENVILLE AND SOUTHEASTERN BOSSIER PARISHES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

At 134 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Doyline, or 8 miles southwest of Minden, moving southwest at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Shreveport, Bossier City, Haughton, Stonewall, Ringgold, Sibley,
Doyline, Dubberly, Heflin, Eastwood, Hall Summit, Jamestown, Carmel,
Curtis, Grand Bayou, Fillmore, Kingston, Plum Orchard Landing, Loggy
Bayou and Koran.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3263 9345 3248 9309 3197 9345 3224 9392
TIME...MOT...LOC 0634Z 029DEG 30KT 3252 9336

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
214 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

ARZ070-TXZ112-290800-
Miller AR-Cass TX-
214 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MILLER AND EASTERN
CASS COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

At 214 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brightstar, or 11 miles northeast of Atlanta, moving southwest at 15
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Atlanta, Queen City, Bivins, Ravanna, McLeod, Brightstar, Bloomburg,
Douglassville, Domino, Pleasant Hill, Fort Lynn and Red Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 9438 3330 9408 3329 9409 3330 9406
      3329 9405 3327 9404 3332 9404 3334 9400
      3316 9385 3302 9400 3302 9404 3298 9404
      3288 9415
TIME...MOT...LOC 0714Z 051DEG 12KT 3319 9399

05

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
219 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

ARZ070-071-LAZ001-002-290800-
Lafayette AR-Miller AR-Bossier LA-Caddo LA-
219 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MILLER AND
SOUTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTIES...NORTHWESTERN CADDO AND NORTHWESTERN
BOSSIER PARISHES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

At 218 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bradley, or 12 miles west of Springhill, moving southwest at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Vivian, Plain Dealing, Bradley, Hosston, Rodessa, Belcher, Ida,
Gilliam, Dixie, Gin City, Cavett, Canale and Bolinger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3299 9352 3298 9353 3297 9352 3269 9383
      3294 9404 3297 9404 3316 9368
TIME...MOT...LOC 0718Z 049DEG 11KT 3302 9368

05

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