Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
426 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Sunday/

...Significant Severe Weather Threat Increasing Later Today...

Our much advertised severe weather event is beginning to unfold
early this morning as elevated convection has already prompted
several severe thunderstorm warnings across portions of deep east
Texas and adjacent areas in north Louisiana. The primary threat
thus far has been large hail and that should continue through much
of the morning hours. Due to this early morning convection, some
uncertainty exists on how quickly the atmosphere can promote the
greater instability which is expected to occur with a warm front
shifting back northward toward to the I-20 corridor by late this
morning. Thus far, it appears that should indeed occur with a
notable break in convection already occuring to our SW over deep
east Texas as the warm front approaches our far southern zones.

Approaching the noon hour, the warm front should be nearing the
I-20 corridor with the expanding warm sector taking in nearly all
of north Louisiana and much of lower east Texas by early to mid
afternoon. By this time, deep layer shear and low-level shear
will be peaking over these areas such that supercell development
will become increasingly likely with strong rotating updrafts and
the threat of potentially strong tornadoes across deep east Texas
and much of north Louisiana where a Moderate Risk is included in
the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. Farther north and west, the
threat lessens to an Enhanced or Slight Risk for nearly all of our
remaining CWA except for areas north of I-30 with a Marginal Risk.
Thus, the primary area of attention in terms of the tornado threat
will reside within the Moderate Risk area throughout the afternoon
and possibly extending into early evening across the eastern half
of north Louisiana where instability and shear values will remain
noticeably high. These increasingly favorable conditions could
easily promote a few significant and potentially long-tracked
tornadoes especially across north Louisiana. Convection should
eventually transition to a primary damaging wind threat the later
we get into the afternoon and evening as the sfc low moves across
the region and the trailing cold front begins advancing into our
western zones around sunset. The severe threat should diminish by
mid to late evening as the cold front begins to clear the region
after midnight through early Sunday morning.

The threat of heavy rainfall will also be a concern throughout
this event, especially over areas where previous heavy rainfall
has recently occurred. Therefore, a Flash Flood Watch has been
issued through late tonight for all of our Arkansas counties in
addition to Bowie County in northeast Texas where 2-3 inches of
rainfall are expected with isolated higher amounts possible. The
remainder of the region should average between 1-2 inches of rain
through early Sunday. Additional but lesser concerns include the
strong southerly winds leading up to frontal passage which has
warranted a Lake Wind Advisory areawide through 8 PM this evening.

Noticeably cooler air will quickly filter in behind the cold front
overnight and into Sunday morning with temperatures only reaching
into the 60s for highs on Sunday afternoon. Some lingering showers
will still be possible through Sunday morning, mainly across our
northern and eastern sections as the upper level trough gradually
pivots NE out of the region.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday Night through Friday Night/

A strong upper trough will be moving into the SE CONUS, while a
rather flat, transient upper ridge moves into the Central CONUS. A
surface ridge will gradually move east of the area Sunday
night/Monday morning. As another surface trough develops lee of the
Rockies, southerly surface winds and warm air advection will return.
This will allow temperatures to quickly rebound back to near normal
as most locations warm well into the 70s during the daytime.

Another warm day is expected on Tuesday with high temperatures
expected to be near 80 degrees F across much of the area.
Southwesterly flow aloft will strengthen through the day as another
strong upper trough deepens and digs southeast into Colorado.
Showers and thunderstorms should develop overnight Tuesday/Wednesday
morning before becoming widespread during the day Wednesday as a
broad area of large scale ascent develops from the Gulf coast
northward towards the Central Plains ahead of another Pacific cold
front/dryline. The storms should gradually taper off from west to
east by late Thursday afternoon.

There certainly appears to be the potential for another round of
strong to possibly severe storms during the middle of next week.
There is still considerable model disagreement with this system.
However, both models suggest sufficient deep layer shear and
instability will be present to support at least a few severe storms.
In addition, both models also suggest multiple rounds of storms,
including the possibility of locally heavy rainfall, will occur.

After a strong cold front moves across the region late Thursday and
the rain exits the area, dry weather is anticipated for Friday and
heading into the following weekend.

CN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1153 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019/

AVIATION...
Still dealing with VFR ceilings across all but our LFK terminal
even with scattered convection continuing to develop across our
airspace. As thunderstorm activity coverage increases through the
predawn hours, should see MVFR ceilings spreading northward
towards our I-20 terminal locations and eventually into the TXK
and ELD terminals near or shortly after sunrise. Given the current
storm coverage and expected coverage during the day Saturday,
started the 06z TAF package our with VCTS across all terminal
locations with several 4 hour TEMPO TSRA groups as the ceilings
come down to MVFR categories.

Went with prevailing TSRA across most terminals through the day
Saturday with Northeast to east winds speeds increasing as the
winds quickly veer around to a south and southwest direction
during the afternoon, mainly across our NE TX terminals. Winds
with convection will obviously be much stronger. Timing
discrepancies with the 00z progs concerning the true frontal
movement into our terminal airspace has resulted in not including
this wind shift with this TAF package. Look for gradient winds
sustained at times near 20kts with winds gusting upwards of 30kts
at times.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  48  65  45 / 100  60  10   0
MLU  73  53  63  42 / 100  90  20   0
DEQ  60  42  65  42 / 100  80  20   0
TXK  61  47  63  43 / 100  80  20   0
ELD  64  49  63  43 / 100  90  30   0
TYR  70  45  66  46 / 100  30   0   0
GGG  71  46  66  45 / 100  40   0   0
LFK  79  48  69  46 /  90  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-
     165>167.

&&

19/09/13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-131715-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage late tonight. A
few storms could be severe, especially along and north of Interstate
20 in east Texas, extreme Northwest Louisiana, extreme southwest
Arkansas, and southeast Oklahoma. Large hail will be the biggest
threat. Locally heavy rain may also lead to isolated flash
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

A low pressure system will move from central Texas across the
ArkLaTex and into Arkansas Saturday into Saturday night, bringing
a potential tornado outbreak to the area with severe thunderstorms
likely. Initially on Saturday morning, large hail and damaging
winds will be the primary threats during the morning hours, mainly
north of Interstate 20, ahead of a northward moving warm front.
By late Saturday morning into the afternoon, most of the Four
State Region will be within the warm sector. Multiple rounds of
severe thunderstorms are expected. Tornadoes, damaging winds,
large hail, and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. In far
east Texas, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana, a few of
the tornadoes may be strong, long-tracked tornadoes. Rainfall
amounts of one to three inches are likely, which may lead to
isolated flooding. The severe weather threat should quickly end
shortly after midnight Sunday morning.

More thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday through early Thursday.
Some of these storms may be strong to severe Wednesday and
Wednesday night. In addition, heavy rainfall may lead to a renewed
threat for flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected tonight, but will be needed on
Saturday.

04-Woodrum

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
510 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 AM     HAIL             8 S MONTGOMERY          31.55N 92.92W
04/13/2019  E1.75 INCH       NATCHITOCHES       LA   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL HAIL REPORTED IN CLOUTIERVILLE.
            REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

CN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
532 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

LAZ002>004-131115-
Bossier LA-Claiborne LA-Webster LA-
532 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WEBSTER...WESTERN
CLAIBORNE AND NORTHERN BOSSIER PARISHES UNTIL 615 AM CDT...

At 532 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Plain Dealing to 9 miles east of Belcher
to 6 miles northeast of Benton to 8 miles northwest of Eastwood to 6
miles north of Fosters. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Minden, Homer, Haynesville, Benton, Plain Dealing, Cotton Valley,
Sarepta, Shongaloo, Evergreen, Alden Bridge, Rocky Mount, Leton,
Linton, Holly Springs, Bellevue, Spring Lake, Ivan, Couchwood, Gilark
and Red Chute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3266 9307 3258 9374 3259 9374 3259 9377
      3260 9374 3261 9376 3272 9373 3278 9375
      3290 9370 3302 9301 3285 9299
TIME...MOT...LOC 1032Z 254DEG 36KT 3286 9362 3280 9367 3275 9366 3268
9363 3262 9367

09

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
537 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 AM     HAIL             5 ESE GILLIAM           32.80N 93.76W
04/13/2019  E1.00 INCH       BOSSIER            LA   PUBLIC

&&

CN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
543 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 AM     HAIL             SWARTZ                  32.57N 91.99W
04/13/2019  E1.00 INCH       OUACHITA           LA   COCORAHS

            1/2 TO 1 HAIL IN LAKESHORE SWARTZ AREA
            NEARLY COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
604 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 AM     HAIL             1 ENE BROWNSVILLE-BAWCO 32.49N 92.15W
04/13/2019  E1.25 INCH       OUACHITA           LA   PUBLIC

            DIME, QUARTER, EVEN SILVER DOLLAR SIZE HAIL
            AT 5:22 AM WEST MONROE, SOUTH OF THE
            INTERSTATE.

&&

25