River Flood Warning 69, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
732 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

.AVIATION...

For the 13/12Z TAF period, a very active terminal forecast is
expected as convection is already ongoing this morning at most
sites. The threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will increase
through the remainder of this morning and especially through the
afternoon hours with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes
possible with storms developing across much of east Texas, north
Louisiana, and south Arkansas. All terminal sites are included in
this threat area but especially those across east Texas and north
Louisiana. Convection will gradually begin to wind down through
the evening and overnight hours with MVFR cigs lingering through
the end of the period as a cold front sweeps across the region.
Gusty E/SE winds today will range from 10-20 kts with higher
gusts near 25-30 kts, likely even higher within areas of stronger
convection. Winds will shift W/NW with frontal passage as speeds
remain strong and gusty through Sunday morning.

/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Sunday/

..Significant Severe Weather Threat Increasing Later Today...

Our much advertised severe weather event is beginning to unfold
early this morning as elevated convection has already prompted
several severe thunderstorm warnings across portions of deep east
Texas and adjacent areas in north Louisiana. The primary threat
thus far has been large hail and that should continue through much
of the morning hours. Due to this early morning convection, some
uncertainty exists on how quickly the atmosphere can promote the
greater instability which is expected to occur with a warm front
shifting back northward toward to the I-20 corridor by late this
morning. Thus far, it appears that should indeed occur with a
notable break in convection already occuring to our SW over deep
east Texas as the warm front approaches our far southern zones.

Approaching the noon hour, the warm front should be nearing the
I-20 corridor with the expanding warm sector taking in nearly all
of north Louisiana and much of lower east Texas by early to mid
afternoon. By this time, deep layer shear and low-level shear
will be peaking over these areas such that supercell development
will become increasingly likely with strong rotating updrafts and
the threat of potentially strong tornadoes across deep east Texas
and much of north Louisiana where a Moderate Risk is included in
the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. Farther north and west, the
threat lessens to an Enhanced or Slight Risk for nearly all of our
remaining CWA except for areas north of I-30 with a Marginal Risk.
Thus, the primary area of attention in terms of the tornado threat
will reside within the Moderate Risk area throughout the afternoon
and possibly extending into early evening across the eastern half
of north Louisiana where instability and shear values will remain
noticeably high. These increasingly favorable conditions could
easily promote a few significant and potentially long-tracked
tornadoes especially across north Louisiana. Convection should
eventually transition to a primary damaging wind threat the later
we get into the afternoon and evening as the sfc low moves across
the region and the trailing cold front begins advancing into our
western zones around sunset. The severe threat should diminish by
mid to late evening as the cold front begins to clear the region
after midnight through early Sunday morning.

The threat of heavy rainfall will also be a concern throughout
this event, especially over areas where previous heavy rainfall
has recently occurred. Therefore, a Flash Flood Watch has been
issued through late tonight for all of our Arkansas counties in
addition to Bowie County in northeast Texas where 2-3 inches of
rainfall are expected with isolated higher amounts possible. The
remainder of the region should average between 1-2 inches of rain
through early Sunday. Additional but lesser concerns include the
strong southerly winds leading up to frontal passage which has
warranted a Lake Wind Advisory areawide through 8 PM this evening.

Noticeably cooler air will quickly filter in behind the cold front
overnight and into Sunday morning with temperatures only reaching
into the 60s for highs on Sunday afternoon. Some lingering showers
will still be possible through Sunday morning, mainly across our
northern and eastern sections as the upper level trough gradually
pivots NE out of the region.

LONG TERM.../Sunday Night through Friday Night/

A strong upper trough will be moving into the SE CONUS, while a
rather flat, transient upper ridge moves into the Central CONUS. A
surface ridge will gradually move east of the area Sunday
night/Monday morning. As another surface trough develops lee of the
Rockies, southerly surface winds and warm air advection will return.
This will allow temperatures to quickly rebound back to near normal
as most locations warm well into the 70s during the daytime.

Another warm day is expected on Tuesday with high temperatures
expected to be near 80 degrees F across much of the area.
Southwesterly flow aloft will strengthen through the day as another
strong upper trough deepens and digs southeast into Colorado.
Showers and thunderstorms should develop overnight Tuesday/Wednesday
morning before becoming widespread during the day Wednesday as a
broad area of large scale ascent develops from the Gulf coast
northward towards the Central Plains ahead of another Pacific cold
front/dryline. The storms should gradually taper off from west to
east by late Thursday afternoon.

There certainly appears to be the potential for another round of
strong to possibly severe storms during the middle of next week.
There is still considerable model disagreement with this system.
However, both models suggest sufficient deep layer shear and
instability will be present to support at least a few severe storms.
In addition, both models also suggest multiple rounds of storms,
including the possibility of locally heavy rainfall, will occur.

After a strong cold front moves across the region late Thursday and
the rain exits the area, dry weather is anticipated for Friday and
heading into the following weekend.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  48  65  45 / 100  60  10   0
MLU  73  53  63  42 / 100  90  20   0
DEQ  60  42  65  42 / 100  80  20   0
TXK  61  47  63  43 / 100  80  20   0
ELD  64  49  63  43 / 100  90  30   0
TYR  70  45  66  46 / 100  30   0   0
GGG  71  46  66  45 / 100  40   0   0
LFK  79  48  69  46 /  90  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

     Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ097.

&&

19/09

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
631 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-TXZ097-141100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Bowie-
631 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 1 AM CDT Sunday morning.

Severe thunderstorms are likely today through this evening,
especially along and south of Interstate 30. The greatest severe
weather threat is expected to be during peak daytime heating this
afternoon through this evening south of a line from Fouke to
Smackover. Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are possible.
Locally heavy rainfall may result in two to three inches of
rainfall with isolated higher amounts. This may lead to flash
flooding.

The severe weather threat should diminish by late this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Thunderstorms will be possible late Tuesday through late Thursday
afternoon. Some of these storms may be strong to severe Wednesday
and Wednesday night. In addition, heavy rainfall may lead to a
renewed threat for flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed today and into this
evening.

LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-108>112-124>126-136>138-
149>153-165>167-141100-
Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-Union-De Soto-Red River-
Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-
Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
631 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Louisiana, northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas
and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Severe thunderstorms are likely today through this evening,
especially along and south of Interstate 30. The greatest severe
weather threat is expected to be during peak daytime heating this
afternoon through this evening, mainly southeast of a line from
Tyler Texas to Camden Arkansas. Tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging winds are possible. Locally heavy rainfall may also lead
to isolated flooding.

The severe weather threat should diminish by late this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Thunderstorms will be possible late Tuesday through late Thursday
afternoon. Some of these storms may be strong to severe Wednesday
and Wednesday night. In addition, heavy rainfall may lead to a
renewed threat for flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed today and into this
evening.

09

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
543 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 AM     HAIL             SWARTZ                  32.57N 91.99W
04/13/2019  E1.00 INCH       OUACHITA           LA   COCORAHS

            1/2 TO 1 HAIL IN LAKESHORE SWARTZ AREA
            NEARLY COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
604 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 AM     HAIL             1 ENE BROWNSVILLE-BAWCO 32.49N 92.15W
04/13/2019  E1.25 INCH       OUACHITA           LA   PUBLIC

            DIME, QUARTER, EVEN SILVER DOLLAR SIZE HAIL
            AT 5:22 AM WEST MONROE, SOUTH OF THE
            INTERSTATE.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
656 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE SCOTTSVILLE       32.59N 94.21W
04/13/2019                   HARRISON           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE REPORTED FROM SCOTTSVILLE TO KARNACK
            MULTIPLE TREES ON THE ROADWAY, 10 UTILITY
            POLES DOWN, AEP ON SCENE, HWY 80 HAS BEEN
            CLEARED CREWS WORKING ON 1998, NO DAMAGE
            REPORTED TO HOMES AS OF YET.

&&

25

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