Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
704 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms across area terminals along I-20
including Lufkin to continue through 07/04Z. Ceilings to become
MVFR through the evening with showers and thunderstorms returning
by daybreak on Sunday. -TSRA conditions expected through much of
the day Sunday. Otherwise, southeast winds around 5 to 10 knots
expected through the overnight hours, decreasing to 5 knots after
07/12Z. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 703 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019/

UPDATE...

A new Tornado Watch was issued for portions of East Texas, North
Louisiana, and Central Louisiana until 10 pm this evening, as the
severe weather threat continues of the region. There has been
several reports of large hail and wall clouds over the past
several hours, and this threat will continue through the late
evening hours as steep lapse rates remain along with sufficient
shear. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 443 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday Night/

A diffuse warm front is still located roughly from near Lufkin TX,
to Mansfield LA, and eastward. North of the front, convection is
elevated and could at times pose a marginal threat for severe
hail and damaging winds. Farther south, in the vicinity of the
front and in the warm sector, conditions are much different.
Storms are surface-based and low-level shear is maximized along
the frontal boundary. This has lead to the storms becoming more
supercellular in nature, and thus, and increased severe weather
threat. The earlier round of showers and storms combined with the
farther south position of the warm front has yielded a very tight
instability gradient near the warm, but CAPE values between
1000-1500 J/kg can still be found across Deep East Texas and
Central Louisiana. The greatest risk for severe weather should
continue to be over East Texas south of Interstate 20.

The severe weather threat should quickly diminish this evening as
instability wanes and a lead upper shortwave trough lifts
northeast from Nebraska towards the Upper Mississippi River
Valley. However, another round of strong to severe convection is
expected to develop during the overnight and early morning hours
of Sunday as an upper trough over Southwest New Mexico moves east
towards the Big Bend Region and along the Interstate 10 corridor.
Convection will likely become widespread after sunrise Sunday
morning and will persist for much of the day.

Unlike today, the entire forecast area should be within the warm
sector on Sunday, so a severe weather threat will once again be in
play for the entire area. Damaging winds, large hail, and isolated
tornadoes will be possible. The storm mode and development should
be fairly similar to today. In fact, the tornado threat may
actually be a bit higher Sunday afternoon south of Interstate 20,
as the models suggest surface winds may strongly back as a surface
low strengthens northwest of Houston. The severe weather threat
should once again diminish Sunday night. However, convection will
likely persist as the upper trough and associated surface low will
be moving eastward very slowly.

CN

LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday Night/

Slow moving upper trough will close off and become partially cut off
from the mean flow directly over the heart of the cwa Monday
morning. Have raised pops Monday and have added low pops Monday
night on account of this slowing trend and associated expected
lift underneath the tight upper low. Pops will remain high with
saturated airmass underneath the low, with a gradual drying in the
mid lvls as the low drifts east of the MS River late Monday
night. A slow movg low amplitude ridge will then remain ovhd thru
mid week. A large upper low to remain diverted north into midwest
with trailing frontal boundary movg across area Thursday.
Confidence too low on any measurable rain that could be squeezed
out of this frontal boundary absent of upper support. A deep upper
low movg across four corners will be better positioned to pump
moisture in deep sw flow and will gradually increase pops into
next weekend as a result. Warm air and spring pattern dictate to
expect tstms but too early to gauge svr threat attm.

/07/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 107 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019/

AVIATION...
For the 06/18z TAFs, widespread strong to severe convection will
affect the entire area throughout the period. The first round of
storms that is ongoing and extends back to the west into Central
Texas should move across the area during the first half of the TAF
period, and will likely end by 06/03z. Another round of strong to
severe convection will begin to develop near or just after 07/06z,
which will persist through the end of the period. KMLU may not be
impacted by the second round of storms until after sunrise Sunday
morning. Otherwise, IFR/LIFR flight conditions can be expected
with the storms. Ceilings may lift into the VFR range in locations
not experiencing convection, but patchy fog and low ceilings may
develop in some locations after sunset due to the heavy rain.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  76  62  75 /  70  70  80  40
MLU  67  78  62  77 /  60  80  80  60
DEQ  62  75  59  77 /  60  60  60  30
TXK  64  74  60  74 /  70  60  70  40
ELD  65  76  61  73 /  70  70  80  60
TYR  66  72  60  76 /  40  60  70  30
GGG  66  74  61  76 /  60  70  70  30
LFK  69  75  62  76 /  60  80  80  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

05/20/07/09

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1216 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-071100-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-Sabine-
1216 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east Texas and
northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 6 PM CDT this afternoon.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely today ahead of a strong
upper level trough. The storms are expected to intensify as a warm
front moves northward and instability increases. The severe
weather threat should gradually diminish this evening. However,
strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to redevelop late
tonight and into the early morning hours of Sunday over portions
of East Texas.

During both rounds of severe weather, the primary threats will be
isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Locally heavy
rainfall may also lead to isolated flash flooding, especially
where storms repeatedly move over the same locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday and should become
widespread by Sunday afternoon. Isolated tornadoes, damaging
winds, and large hail will be the primary threats. Locally heavy
rainfall may also lead to isolated flash flooding. The threat for
severe weather and heavy rainfall should diminish from southwest
to northeast Sunday night, but a few isolated thunderstorms may
persist until late Monday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and again
late tonight and into Sunday.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-071100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-
1216 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely today ahead of a strong
upper level trough. The storms are expected to intensify as a warm
front moves northward and instability increases. The severe
weather threat should gradually diminish this evening. However,
strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to redevelop late
tonight and into the early morning hours of Sunday over portions
of East Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and Northwest Louisiana.

During both rounds of severe weather, the primary threats will be
isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Locally heavy
rainfall may also lead to isolated flash flooding, especially
where storms repeatedly move over the same locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday and should become
widespread by Sunday afternoon. Isolated tornadoes, damaging
winds, and large hail will be the primary threats. Locally heavy
rainfall may also lead to isolated flash flooding. The threat for
severe weather and heavy rainfall should diminish from southwest
to northeast Sunday night, but a few isolated thunderstorms may
persist until late Monday afternoon.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon and
evening over portions of Southern Arkansas and North Central
Louisiana as a cold front moves across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and again
late tonight and into Sunday.

09

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>