River Flood Warning 55, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
808 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

.AVIATION...

For the ArkLaTex, IFR/MVFR and we will bounce around that for
another day or two as the upper low is crossing over the Rio
Grande now and is headed right for the ArkLaTex. Southerly winds
will becoming Northerly on Monday as the system swings overhead
with a weak surface reflection shifting winds. SFC winds will be
gusty in and around downpours with some large hail possible in the
stronger storms. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 525 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019/

SHORT TERM.../Sunday through Monday/

A huge range of 60s this morning with light and variable winds.
Skies are cloudy and less than half sites at this time are seeing
any patchy fog issue, mainly in E TX where rains have just lifted
across I-20 and continue Northward. We had some decent totals
yesterday with another 1 to 3 inches possible today and tonight.

The SPC continues a large slight risk area for today and hail
continues to be primary threat today and this evening. Tomorrow
their marginal area will lie over the Eastern edge of our cwa.
The models show the upper low flying right overhead with a weak
surface reflection focusing all the activity on the Eastern half.
Pollen continues to just give up. We will continue with near
average temps through Monday. /24/

LONG TERM.../Monday Night through Sunday/

Despite the semi-closed nature of the upper trough by tonight and
Monday, the majority of the progs have trended with a faster
movement of the low/trough into the Lower MS Valley Monday evening,
with the exception of the NAM, which is considerably slower with
the low over Wrn LA early Monday evening. Have trended more with a
blend of the models but a bit faster than the NAM (considering
consistency in the models for the past couple of days), with some
isolated -SHRA possibly lingering in the evening near the trough/low
center over Scntrl AR/Ern sections of Ncntrl LA. Thus, have re-
inserted slight chance pops for these areas Monday evening, before
drying/subsidence just behind the departing system should end any
residual -SHRA by 06Z Tuesday. Otherwise, a dry NW flow aloft will
commence late Monday night in wake of the departing trough, allowing
for drier air to spill SE into the region. Weak sfc ridging will
build into the region as well, with enhanced subsidence within the
dry air mass in place expected to result in above normal temps as
readings climb into the lower to mid 80s.

This sfc ridge should shift E of the region Tuesday night, with the
pressure gradient tightening across the Srn Plains and much of our
region Wednesday in response to deepening sfc cyclogenesis that will
occur over portions of Wrn and Cntrl KS ahead of an amplifying upper
trough that will cross the Rockies. Despite the increasing Srly low
level flow, moisture will be hard to come by, which should result in
much above normal temps by afternoon as they climb into the mid and
possibly upper 80s. The SWrly LLJ will persist Wednesday night which
should maintain sfc winds overnight and thus milder min temps, with
the low level moisture field finally beginning to deepen somewhat
after 12Z Thursday ahead of an associated cold front that will enter
extreme SE Ok/SW AR/NE TX after daybreak. The GFS/Canadian continue
to suggest that the potential for isolated convection developing by
afternoon just ahead of the cold front over Scntrl AR/much of N LA,
with the ECMWF finally on board with isolated convection developing
as well. Have maintained slight chance pops over these areas through
Thursday evening, with the front still expected to exit the region
by 06Z Friday. Cooler (more seasonal temps) and drier air will spill
SE in wake of the fropa, with sfc ridging expected to build S to the
coast Friday. SW flow aloft will persist in wake of the fropa
though, ahead of an amplifying longwave trough that will dig through
the Desert SW Saturday and into the Srn Rockies and eventually Srn
Plains Saturday night/Sunday. This should result in increasing
overrunning convection as it spreads NE across the region Saturday
through Sunday. For now, have carried mid chance pops areawide with
the potential for pops to be increased in subsequent forecasts.
/15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1147 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019/

AVIATION...
Ceilings to become MVFR overnight with showers and thunderstorms
returning shortly after daybreak across area terminals. -TSRA
conditions expected through much of the day Sunday. Otherwise,
southeast winds around 5 to 10 knots expected through the
overnight hours, decreasing to 5 knots after 07/12Z. Winds to
become light and variable after 08/00Z with MVFR conditions
and patchy light rain possible through Sunday evening. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  61  77  57 /  80  80  40  10
MLU  79  63  76  57 /  80  80  60  20
DEQ  74  59  78  51 /  50  60  30   0
TXK  73  60  77  55 /  60  70  40  10
ELD  76  60  75  54 /  70  80  60  20
TYR  73  60  78  56 /  60  70  30   0
GGG  74  60  79  55 /  80  70  30   0
LFK  74  61  79  57 /  80  80  30   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

24/15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
632 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

ARZ060-061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ097-110>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-071800-
Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-
Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-
Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Bowie-
Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-
Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
632 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible this
morning across much of East Texas, Northwest Louisiana, and
Southwest Arkansas, but coverage and intensity is expected to
increase this afternoon as the parent upper level storm system
begins to lift east northeast into Eastcentral Texas. While
isolated severe thunderstorms containing large hail will be
possible this morning across portions of these areas, the
potential for severe thunderstorms will increase this afternoon
across East Texas, North Louisiana, and Southern Arkansas, with
damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes, and locally heavy
rainfall possible. Where the heavier rain falls repeatedly over
the same areas, localized flash flooding will also be possible.
The severe weather threat will gradually diminish from southwest
to northeast later this evening, although the threat for locally
heavy rainfall will linger overnight across portions of East
Texas, Northwest Louisiana, and Southwest Arkansas near the
center of this storm system.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin to diminish from
west to east Monday, as the parent storm system continues to shift
east out of the area. While much warmer and drier conditions are
expected for much of this week, showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms will increase across the region Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, spotter networks, and amateur
radio operators, will be needed today and tonight.

ARZ050-051-059-OKZ077-TXZ096-108-109-071800-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-McCurtain-Red River-Franklin-Titus-
632 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

While isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible this morning, showers and thunderstorms will increase
this afternoon from the southwest, as the parent upper level storm
system begins to lift east northeast into Eastcentral Texas. There
will be a threat for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening across Southeast Oklahoma and portions of
extreme Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas, with damaging
winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall possible. Where the
heavier rains move repeatedly over the same areas, localized flash
flooding will be possible. The severe weather threat will diminish
later this evening, but the threat for locally heavy rainfall will
persist through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin to diminish from
west to east Monday, as the parent storm system continues to shift
east out of the area. While much warmer and drier conditions are
expected for much of this week, showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms will increase across the region Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, spotter networks, and amateur
radio operators, may be needed this afternoon and tonight.

15

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
945 AM CDT SUN APR 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 AM     HAIL             7 SSE MARIETTA          33.08N 94.50W
04/07/2019  E1.00 INCH       CASS               TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL ABOUT 10 MILES
            NORTHEAST OF HUGHES SPRINGS. REPORT VIA
            FACEBOOK.

&&

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
953 AM CDT SUN APR 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 AM     HAIL             BERNICE                 32.82N 92.66W
04/07/2019  E0.75 INCH       UNION              LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PENNY SIZE HAIL FELL IN BERNICE.

&&

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1007 AM CDT SUN APR 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 AM     FLASH FLOOD      EL DORADO               33.22N 92.66W
04/07/2019                   UNION              AR   PUBLIC

            VIDEO OF FLASH FLOODING ON SOCIAL MEDIA.
            REPORTS OF MULTIPLE ROADS FLOODED.

&&

CN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1030 AM CDT SUN APR 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     FLASH FLOOD      EL DORADO               33.22N 92.66W
04/07/2019                   UNION              AR   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD REPORT FROM EL
            DORADO. VIDEO OF FLASH FLOODING ON SOCIAL
            MEDIA. REPORTS OF MULTIPLE ROADS FLOODED.

&&

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1043 AM CDT SUN APR 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSE MAGNOLIA          33.20N 93.21W
04/07/2019                   COLUMBIA           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 79 SOUTH OF MAGNOLIA ARE
            UNDERWATER. SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS ARE
            UNDERWATER. MAIN STREET AND DUDNEY STREET,
            AS WELL AS OTHER CITY STREETS IN MAGNOLA ARE
            FLOODED.

&&

15