Alert archive / Missouri / Special Weather Statements in 2019

Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

July 21, 2019Barton County, Missouri; Crawford County, Kansas

NWS Springfield, MO issued this special weather statement at Jul 21, 2019, 8:44 PM CDT for Barton County, Missouri; Crawford County, Kansas. It was in force for 46 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 21, 2019, 8:44 PM CDT (01:44 UTC)
Expired: Jul 21, 2019, 9:30 PM CDT
In force: 46 min
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO

Counties Crawford County, KS, Barton County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 1.7 hours before the alert went out and 97 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1339 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -5 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1553 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 33 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 92 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 21, 6:14 PM CDT, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 6:14 PM CDT, 2 hours 30 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
614 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Most of the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas are
experiencing one final day of heat and humidity. All locations
are in the upper 80s and lower 90s. There is some variance to dew
points due to an outflow boundary which is moving southwest across
the area. South of a Nevada to Bolivar to Willow Springs line,
dew points are in the lower to even middle 70s. This is resulting
in heat indices between 95 and 108 degrees. North of that
boundary, dew points are around 70 degrees with heat indices
between 93 and 102 degrees.

As we get into late this afternoon and early this evening, widely
scattered thunderstorms will be possible along that boundary.
Coverage will remain limited due to the presence of a dry air mass
in the middle and upper portions of the atmosphere. Locally gusty
winds will be possible if any of these storms do develop.

Much better chances for storms will spread southeast across the
area later tonight as a much welcome cold front approaches. We are
generally looking at these storms pushing into southeastern
Kansas and west-central Missouri sometime in the 9 to 11 PM time
frame. These storms will then spread southeast across the
remainder of the area overnight.

Damaging wind gusts will be possible with these storms, mainly
across southeastern Kansas and west-central Missouri in the
vicinity of an SPC Slight Risk for severe storms. We will also
have to monitor the potential for flash flooding given a rather
moist air mass in place. HREF ensembles do indicate some potential
for localized 2 to 4" amounts. We will have to closely watch
locations where convection trains. One prospect for training
could be that outflow boundary.

Rain showers and a few thunderstorms will then persist into
Monday morning as that front pushes southeast across southern
Missouri. We could even see some pockets of drizzle behind the
front with a low cloud deck. We went slightly below the model mean
for high temperatures Monday due to cool air advection and
morning/early afternoon cloud cover. Highs should only warm into
the upper 70s and lower 80s with much drier dew points also
beginning to advect into the region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Surface high pressure will slowly build southeast towards the
region before finally settling over the Missouri Ozarks by
Wednesday. Dry weather and below normal temperatures can be
expected with highs ranging from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
Lows will range from the upper 50s to middle 60s.

We will see a slight warming trend towards the end of the week as
weak height rises overspread the area. Highs are expected to
creep back up into the middle and upper 80s by Saturday. We are
seeing no signals for precipitation through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to monitor radar trends for thunderstorm impacts tonight and
into Monday morning.

An upper level disturbance has already forced thunderstorms to
develop across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. This activity
will become more numerous as the disturbance spreads across the
Ozarks this evening and through the overnight hours.

There is a damaging wind risk with some of the more intense storms
tonight, along with excessive rainfall.

Otherwise, if storms are not directly impacting an airfield, VFR
conditions are expected. Flight conditions will drop if storms and
precipitation does impact an airfield.

Safe travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Cramer

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 21, 7:26 PM CDT, 1 hour 18 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
726 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-230030-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
726 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across portions
of southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. A few storms may
become severe with wind gusts to 60 mph. Other hazards with the
storms tonight include frequent cloud to ground lightning, small
hail and heavy rainfall. Localized flash flooding will be possible
where thunderstorms train over the same locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms will linger across the area into Monday morning. No
severe storms are expected with cloud to ground lightning being
the main potential hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for areas of southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Cramer

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 21, 8:44 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
844 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

KSZ073-097-MOZ066-077-220230-
Bourbon KS-Crawford KS-Vernon MO-Barton MO-
844 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BOURBON...
SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...BARTON AND SOUTHERN VERNON COUNTIES UNTIL 930
PM CDT...

At 844 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles west of Nevada to near Mulberry to 6
miles northeast of Mccune. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsburg...                      Prairie State Park...
Nevada...                         Lamar...
Frontenac...                      Girard...
Arma...                           Liberal...
Sheldon...                        Mulberry...
Nashville...                      Mindenmines...
Franklin...                       Arcadia...
Bronaugh...                       Lamar Heights...
Moundville...                     Richards...
Milo...                           Deerfield...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 57 and 87.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Kansas...and southwestern and west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3763 9473 3794 9462 3770 9407 3749 9415
      3735 9429 3736 9452 3736 9462 3747 9501
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 299DEG 33KT 3787 9452 3760 9465 3744 9496

Perez

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 21, 8:02 PM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	SGF	Barry, Barton, Christian, Dade, Dallas, Dent and 19 more	11 hr
Jul 21, 9:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barton, Jasper, Newton	67 min
Jul 21, 10:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	McDonald	41 min
Jul 21, 11:51 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Hickory	39 min
Jul 22, 12:46 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Camden, Laclede	59 min
Jul 22, 1:23 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Camden, Dallas, Hickory, Laclede	6 hr
Jul 22, 1:58 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Dent, Phelps, Pulaski, Shannon, Texas	6 hr
Jul 22, 2:04 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Phelps, Pulaski	56 min
Jul 22, 4:39 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SGF	Maries, Phelps	6 hr
Jul 22, 6:11 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	SGF	Camden, Dallas, Dent, Hickory, Laclede, Phelps and 4 more	10 hr
Jul 21, 7:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Bourbon	40 min
Jul 21, 7:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Bourbon, Crawford	62 min
Jul 21, 9:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Cherokee, Crawford	59 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Missouri, 2019 Special Weather Statements in Kansas, 2019 Every special weather statement in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.