Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
618 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

Another tricky forecast with overall convective scenario through the
period being driven by mesoscale features.

At mid afternoon, a surface boundary lies from south central Kansas
into central Missouri. A cluster of thunderstorms had developed over
south central Kansas just west and north of Wichita.

SPC mesoscale analysis shows a slow atmospheric recovery this
afternoon and evening with modest MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 j/kg
expected late this afternoon and evening, along with 25 to 35 knots
of deep layer shear. Several of the CAMs (HRRR and NAMNest) are
showing some development this afternoon over the far northwest
counties and others showing some development further south along
outflow boundaries. Will have to watch the above mentioned cluster
of storms near Wichita as they move towards southeast Kansas.

Examination of CAPE and shear profiles indicate the potential for
supercell structures late this afternoon and this evening with
storms that develop from east-central Kansas into southwestern
Missouri. We will therefore raise the potential hail size to ping
pong balls. Low level shear profiles look too weak at this time to
carry any kind of tornado threat.

Attention then turns to convective activity that should be well
underway across the highs Plains of western Kansas all the way into
Texas. Confidence is growing that a squall line will develop and then
track east, arriving in southeast Kansas and western Missouri after
midnight and then tracking through the forecast area through the
morning hours. The CAMs are showing the most intense part of this
line staying south of the area, but still could get some damaging
winds as it moves into the area and perhaps some large hail.

How quickly this complex of storms dissipates on Wednesday will be
the main factor for additional severe thunderstorm potential. The
main upper level shortwave will lift northeast into Nebraska,
with the main cold front hanging back across Kansas and really
doesn't arrive into our area until Wednesday night. So, convective
activity may be delayed until the boundary nears the area. So
still lots of uncertainty for the Wednesday and Wednesday night
time frame.

Given the saturated ground, ongoing flood advisories over
southeast Kansas and additional convection expected, will keep
the Flash Flood Watch as is for now. Cannot rule out the need for
a southward extension at some point, but that will rest with near
term expected convective trends for later shifts.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

The aforementioned front moves through the region Thursday. Models
would suggest that given timing, main severe weather threat would be
east and south of the area, with only the far south central areas
seeing a narrow window of stronger storms during the afternoon.
Otherwise, cooler and drier air then moves in for Thursday night and
continues through Friday, with lows Thursday night in the 40s and
highs Friday just in the 60s.

For the weekend, a rather vigorous upper level low tracks through
the northern Great Lakes, pushing a cold front through Missouri by
Saturday night. Cannot rule out a few light showers, but it looks
like most areas will remain dry, but temperatures will be on the
cool side with highs again in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

High pressure settles back into the area to begin the week on
Monday, with quiet conditions along with warming temperatures back
into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports this
evening will need to monitor radar trends. A few showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop across southwest Missouri,
and shift north through the evening. A few of these storms could
become severe, with large hail being the primary risk.

Additional thunderstorms will organize across Kansas overnight,
and move into the Missouri Ozarks during the early morning hours.
There will also be a risk for severe weather with this cluster of
storms as well.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected if storms are not directly
impacting an airfield.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>081-088-089.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding/Schaumann
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Cramer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
323 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-082030-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
323 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening
  over portions of southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.
  A few of these storms will be capable of producing hail up
  to the size of ping pong balls and locally damaging winds.
  Frequent lightning and brief heavy rainfall can also be
  expected with these storms.

  Additional thunderstorms will develop west of the area this
  evening and congeal into a line of storms. This line of
  storms will then push into southeastern Kansas and western
  Missouri late tonight. Cloud to ground lightning along with
  locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be the main
  potential hazards with these storms. Damaging wind gusts and
  perhaps some hail up to the size of quarters will also be
  possible, especially near and west of the I-49 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

  Thunderstorms and heavy rain will continue into Wednesday with
  a chance of severe storms. Large hail and damaging wind would
  be the main severe weather risk. In addition, very heavy
  rainfall would likely again lead to more flash flooding.

  Thunderstorms should come to an end on Thursday as a cold front
  moves through the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Schaumann