Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Springfield, MO

837 
WGUS73 KSGF 080234
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
934 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2019

MOC203-081200-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-190508T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Shannon MO-
934 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN SHANNON COUNTY...

At 932 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. 3 to 4 inches of rain has occurred in a 
short amount of time within the Sinking Creek Basin and other areas 
of Shannon County. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

Rapid rises in water levels along Sinking Creek at Echo Bluff State 
Park will be possible over the next several hours. 

Rapid rises along the Current River below Akers is also expected. 

Creeks, streams, and low water crossings will be especially
susceptible to the dangers of flash flooding.
Locations in the warning include...
Current River State Park...       Round Spring...
Akers...                          Midridge...
Echo Bluff State Park...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3714 9120 3722 9141 3722 9148 3715 9155
      3711 9166 3717 9165 3722 9158 3735 9159
      3742 9150 3741 9117 3738 9117 3731 9125
      3727 9126 3721 9124 3721 9117 3717 9116

$$

Cramer

417 
WGUS73 KSGF 081152
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
652 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2019

MOC203-081202-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-190508T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Shannon MO-
652 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN SHANNON COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
700 AM CDT...

The heavy rain ended late yesterday evening. Flash flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat to life or property. Please 
continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3714 9120 3722 9141 3722 9148 3715 9155
      3711 9166 3717 9165 3722 9158 3735 9159
      3742 9150 3741 9117 3738 9117 3731 9125
      3727 9126 3721 9124 3721 9117 3717 9116

$$

Lindenberg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
618 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

Another tricky forecast with overall convective scenario through the
period being driven by mesoscale features.

At mid afternoon, a surface boundary lies from south central Kansas
into central Missouri. A cluster of thunderstorms had developed over
south central Kansas just west and north of Wichita.

SPC mesoscale analysis shows a slow atmospheric recovery this
afternoon and evening with modest MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 j/kg
expected late this afternoon and evening, along with 25 to 35 knots
of deep layer shear. Several of the CAMs (HRRR and NAMNest) are
showing some development this afternoon over the far northwest
counties and others showing some development further south along
outflow boundaries. Will have to watch the above mentioned cluster
of storms near Wichita as they move towards southeast Kansas.

Examination of CAPE and shear profiles indicate the potential for
supercell structures late this afternoon and this evening with
storms that develop from east-central Kansas into southwestern
Missouri. We will therefore raise the potential hail size to ping
pong balls. Low level shear profiles look too weak at this time to
carry any kind of tornado threat.

Attention then turns to convective activity that should be well
underway across the highs Plains of western Kansas all the way into
Texas. Confidence is growing that a squall line will develop and then
track east, arriving in southeast Kansas and western Missouri after
midnight and then tracking through the forecast area through the
morning hours. The CAMs are showing the most intense part of this
line staying south of the area, but still could get some damaging
winds as it moves into the area and perhaps some large hail.

How quickly this complex of storms dissipates on Wednesday will be
the main factor for additional severe thunderstorm potential. The
main upper level shortwave will lift northeast into Nebraska,
with the main cold front hanging back across Kansas and really
doesn't arrive into our area until Wednesday night. So, convective
activity may be delayed until the boundary nears the area. So
still lots of uncertainty for the Wednesday and Wednesday night
time frame.

Given the saturated ground, ongoing flood advisories over
southeast Kansas and additional convection expected, will keep
the Flash Flood Watch as is for now. Cannot rule out the need for
a southward extension at some point, but that will rest with near
term expected convective trends for later shifts.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

The aforementioned front moves through the region Thursday. Models
would suggest that given timing, main severe weather threat would be
east and south of the area, with only the far south central areas
seeing a narrow window of stronger storms during the afternoon.
Otherwise, cooler and drier air then moves in for Thursday night and
continues through Friday, with lows Thursday night in the 40s and
highs Friday just in the 60s.

For the weekend, a rather vigorous upper level low tracks through
the northern Great Lakes, pushing a cold front through Missouri by
Saturday night. Cannot rule out a few light showers, but it looks
like most areas will remain dry, but temperatures will be on the
cool side with highs again in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

High pressure settles back into the area to begin the week on
Monday, with quiet conditions along with warming temperatures back
into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports this
evening will need to monitor radar trends. A few showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop across southwest Missouri,
and shift north through the evening. A few of these storms could
become severe, with large hail being the primary risk.

Additional thunderstorms will organize across Kansas overnight,
and move into the Missouri Ozarks during the early morning hours.
There will also be a risk for severe weather with this cluster of
storms as well.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected if storms are not directly
impacting an airfield.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>081-088-089.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding/Schaumann
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Cramer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
903 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-090215-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
903 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Scattered thunderstorms will move across portions of
  southeastern Kansas the Missouri Ozarks this evening. A few of
  these storms will be capable of producing hail up to the size
  of ping pong balls and locally damaging winds. Frequent
  lightning and brief heavy rainfall can also be expected with
  these storms.

  Additional thunderstorms will develop west of the area late
  tonight and congeal into a line of storms. This line of storms
  will then push into southeastern Kansas and western Missouri
  overnight. Cloud to ground lightning along with locally heavy
  rainfall and flooding will be the main potential hazards with
  these storms. Damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail up to
  the size of quarters will also be possible, especially near
  and west of the I-49 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

  Thunderstorms and heavy rain will continue into Wednesday with
  a chance of severe storms. Large hail and damaging wind would
  be the main severe weather risk. In addition, very heavy
  rainfall would likely again lead to more flash flooding.

  Thunderstorms should come to an end on Thursday as a cold front
  moves through the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Hatch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
820 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     HAIL             2 N ROUND SPRING        37.31N 91.41W
05/07/2019  E1.75 INCH       SHANNON            MO   PUBLIC

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED.

&&

FEH