Severe Thunderstorm Warning 369, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
205 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

...High Wind Warning in Effect...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)

A 140 knot speed max was approaching from the west and will force
a round of thunderstorms late this afternoon and through the
evening hours. A few of these storms could become severe, with
damaging wind gusts being the primary risk. A few of the most
intense storms could produce quarter size hail and some brief
tornadoes.

Rainfall amounts do not look excessive, therefore we
kept flooding out of tonight's Hazardous Weather Outlook. As a
side note, a 21Z special sounding has been scheduled to better
assess how unstable our lower atmosphere has become and to see if
any inhibition layers exist.

A High Wind Warning has been issued for areas along and north of
Interstate 44. Environmental wind gusts up to 60 mph can not be
ruled out, which will likely cause pockets of damage to sensitive
infrastructure. Timing of the strongest wind gusts is expected to
occur after 9pm this evening, and could continue into the early
morning hours of Wednesday.

For Wednesday, skies will quickly become sunny with high temps in
the mid to upper 40s. West to northwest winds will still be
breezy ranging from 10 to 20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

Rain is expected to move back into the region on Thursday as
moisture quickly returns. Some thunderstorms will also be
possible as to what will be the beginning of an active period.

A deep long wave trough will evolve across the western conus
while ridging unfolds to the east. Southwest flow across the
nations midsection will offer warmer than usual conditions with
plenty of Gulf moisture return. This pattern will set the stage
for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms from Thursday
through Saturday. Due to the potential for 1 to 3 inches of storm
total rainfall from Thursday through Saturday, we will continue to
mention a limited flood risk.

Dry and blustery weather is expected from Saturday evening through
the rest of the weekend.

Upper ridging unfolds once again early next work week leading to
temperatures in the 40s and 50s Monday and Tuesday afternoons.
Little to no chances for rain is expected early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

A strong storm system is approaching the area from the west today.
Gusty southerly winds will occur ahead of the system this
afternoon. MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible this afternoon
ahead of a front across portions of southern Missouri into
portions of central Missouri.

Showers and storms will develop across northern Arkansas and will
move northeast across south and central Missouri later this
afternoon into early this evening. The front will then sweep
across the area later this evening, with additional showers and
storms possible.

Behind the front a dry air mass will move into the area brining
VFR conditions to the area. Winds will switch to the northwest
behind the the front and increase and become quite gusty later
this evening into early Wednesday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Wednesday for
     MOZ082-083-092-095>098-103>106.

     High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday
     for MOZ066-067-077-078-088-089-094.

     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday for
     MOZ093-101-102.

     High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday
     for MOZ055>058-068>071-079>081-090-091.

KS...High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday
     for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1255 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-271900-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1255 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Limited hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Significant non thunderstorm wind risk.
  Significant fire weather risk.

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon through
this evening. A few of these storms will become severe, with
damaging wind gusts the primary risk. A few of the most intense
storms could produce large hail to the size of quarters along
with some brief tornadoes.

Strong surface winds are expected tonight through Wednesday
morning. The strongest winds will occur along and north of
Interstate 44 tonight with gusts of 45 to 60 mph expected. These
strong winds will also produce a localized significant fire
weather risk as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible from Thursday
to Saturday as a series of weather systems move through. Rainfall
totals from Thursday through Saturday may exceed three inches in
some areas. Rainfall of this magnitude is capable of producing
creek and river flooding along with low water crossings.

A few snow flakes may fall across portions of central missouri
Thanksgiving morning. Little or no accumulation is expected at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed later today and tonight for
 locations east of Highway 13.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Cramer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
252 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

MOZ104-105-262115-
Ozark MO-Taney MO-
252 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OZARK AND
SOUTHEASTERN TANEY COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CST...

At 250 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Diamond City, or 15 miles west of Bull Shoals, moving northeast at 50
mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bull Shoals Lake...               Theodosia...
Pontiac...                        Sundown...
Protem...                         Isabella...

LAT...LON 3650 9292 3664 9270 3665 9263 3664 9256
      3650 9237 3649 9238
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 241DEG 42KT 3644 9285

Titus