Severe Thunderstorm Warning 315, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
655 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

Very complex and challenging forecast given the current storms
moving through southern Missouri at this time with model guidance
remaining very poor today. An outflow boundary currently resides
from Chanute, KS to Joplin to Cassville, MO with a stabilized
airmass occuring north of that line. The atmosphere along and
southwest of that line was very unstable with ML capes around 4000
j/kg. Satellite imagery showed that the outflow boundary was
slowing down its southwest extent and beginning to intersect with
a frontal boundary west of Chanute.

Thunderstorms will continue for the next few hours across southern
Missouri before exiting the south and east. The big question for
the remainder of the evening and night is with the activity that
will get going later on (after 7pm) across southeast Kansas and
northeast Oklahoma as shortwave energy moves in. This activity
will likely develop and move east, likely remaining the strongest
near and south of the outflow boundary/recovering airmass region.
Large hail to the size of golf balls will still be possible,
however this looks to be confined to extreme southeast Kansas and
far southwest Missouri, locations further northeast will likely
see smaller hail sizes. As far as winds go, damaging winds in
excess of 60-70mph will be possible even a little further north of
the outflow boundary. Cant rule out an isolated tornado,
especially if any cells have boundary interaction.

Timing/Locations: Storms will likely regenerate to our west after
7pm and move into southeast Kansas by 7-9pm with storms moving
through southern Missouri, mainly along and south of a Ft Scott
Kansas, to Bolivar, Mo to Eminence, Mo line. in the 9pm-1am
timeframe. Locations further north of this line may see very
little additional convection or severe potential.

Conditions on Tuesday look much calmer and quieter with highs in
the upper 70s to near 80 with northerly flow at 850mb.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

Surface high pressure will slide over head mid week, providing
cooler and drier conditions across the area. Zonal flow returns
by the end of the week into the weekend with precip chances
increasing across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

The Ozarks had a storm system move through earlier today. Behind
the earlier system flight conditions improved to VFR with only
some high cirrus clouds over the area. A cold front will move
through the region this evening and into the early morning hours.
Along the front showers and storms will bring MVFR to IFR
ceilings and visibilities with heavy rainfall. Winds will s=shift
from southerly to northerly behind the front with low IFR stratus
lingering across the region through early Tuesday afternoon. Skies
will then clear from west to east by the afternoon and into
Tuesday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Hatch

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
908 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 ENE VERSAILLES        38.45N 92.74W
08/26/2019                   MORGAN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            24 INCHES OF WATER OVER ROAD AT HWY C AND
            HWY E.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
911 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNW VERSAILLES        38.46N 92.86W
08/26/2019                   MORGAN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WILLOWCREEK RD NEAR HWY D HAS 10 FEET OF
            ROAD WASHED OUT DUE TO CULVERT LIFTING; ROAD
            CLOSED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
912 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     FLOOD            1 NNE VERSAILLES        38.44N 92.84W
08/26/2019                   MORGAN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PONDING OF ROADWAY ON JEFFERSON ST IN
            VERSAILLES.

&&