Flash Flood Warning 106, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1233 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

Very complex and challenging forecast given the current storms
moving through southern Missouri at this time with model guidance
remaining very poor today. An outflow boundary currently resides
from Chanute, KS to Joplin to Cassville, MO with a stabilized
airmass occuring north of that line. The atmosphere along and
southwest of that line was very unstable with ML capes around 4000
j/kg. Satellite imagery showed that the outflow boundary was
slowing down its southwest extent and beginning to intersect with
a frontal boundary west of Chanute.

Thunderstorms will continue for the next few hours across southern
Missouri before exiting the south and east. The big question for
the remainder of the evening and night is with the activity that
will get going later on (after 7pm) across southeast Kansas and
northeast Oklahoma as shortwave energy moves in. This activity
will likely develop and move east, likely remaining the strongest
near and south of the outflow boundary/recovering airmass region.
Large hail to the size of golf balls will still be possible,
however this looks to be confined to extreme southeast Kansas and
far southwest Missouri, locations further northeast will likely
see smaller hail sizes. As far as winds go, damaging winds in
excess of 60-70mph will be possible even a little further north of
the outflow boundary. Cant rule out an isolated tornado,
especially if any cells have boundary interaction.

Timing/Locations: Storms will likely regenerate to our west after
7pm and move into southeast Kansas by 7-9pm with storms moving
through southern Missouri, mainly along and south of a Ft Scott
Kansas, to Bolivar, Mo to Eminence, Mo line. in the 9pm-1am
timeframe. Locations further north of this line may see very
little additional convection or severe potential.

Conditions on Tuesday look much calmer and quieter with highs in
the upper 70s to near 80 with northerly flow at 850mb.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

Surface high pressure will slide over head mid week, providing
cooler and drier conditions across the area. Zonal flow returns
by the end of the week into the weekend with precip chances
increasing across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

A cold front was moving through the region early this morning.
Showers lingered at the Branson terminal with slowly improving
conditions behind the front.

Cooler air will move across the area behind the front brining low
IFR stratus to the area for a few hours around sunrise. Improving
conditions are then expected with clearing skies by the late
afternoon and evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Hatch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1107 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-280415-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1107 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Strong to severe storms will continue move southeast across the
Missouri Ozarks ahead of a cold front as it moves east overnight.
Large hail to the size of quarters, damaging winds in excess of
60 mph, and an isolated tornado are possible as these storms
move across the area.

The greatest risk for severe weather will occur southeast of
Interstate 44. Although storms will move through quickly, very
heavy rainfall rates are possible that may lead to localized flash
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return towards the end of the
week and into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation will be needed over the next six hours for
areas southeast of Interstate 44.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Hatch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1051 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

MOZ090-091-095-103-104-270430-
Greene MO-Taney MO-Webster MO-Christian MO-Stone MO-
1051 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WEBSTER...CHRISTIAN...
NORTHWESTERN TANEY...NORTHERN STONE AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES
UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

At 1051 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Springfield to near Crane. Movement was
southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Springfield...       Nixa...
Ozark...                          Battlefield...
Rogersville...                    Clever...
Seymour...                        Sparta...
Crane...                          Reeds Spring...
Highlandville...                  Fremont Hills...
Fordland...                       Branson West...
Galena...                         Diggins...
Mccord Bend...                    Hurley...
Spokane...                        Oldfield...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3687 9362 3694 9361 3722 9324 3721 9271
      3707 9288 3707 9291 3704 9291 3668 9333
TIME...MOT...LOC 0351Z 315DEG 19KT 3716 9325 3693 9353

Rothstein

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1106 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

MOZ102-270430-
Barry MO-
1106 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BARRY COUNTY UNTIL 1130
PM CDT...

At 1106 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Seligman, or 12 miles southwest of Cassville, moving east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Roaring River State Park...       Table Rock Lake...
Cassville...                      Shell Knob...
Seligman...                       Exeter...
Washburn...                       Golden...
Emerald Beach...                  Eagle Rock...
Chain-O-Lakes...                  Arrow Point...
Wayne...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southwestern Missouri. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in
effect until 600 AM CDT for southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3650 9407 3657 9408 3667 9406 3665 9358
      3650 9358
TIME...MOT...LOC 0406Z 278DEG 40KT 3652 9399

Rothstein

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1138 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

MOZ083-098-270545-
Dent MO-Shannon MO-
1138 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SHANNON AND DENT
COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

At 1138 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 16 miles east of Fort Leonard Wood to Licking
to near Raymondville to near Houston. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Current River State Park...       Ozark National Scenic Riverways...
Echo Bluff State Park...          Montauk State Park...
Salem...                          Bunker...
Lenox...                          Montauk...
Turtle...                         Jadwin...
Howes Mill...                     Midridge...
Darien...                         Gladden...
Boss...                           Round Spring...
Akers...                          Stone Hill...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
south central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3720 9165 3742 9164 3743 9175 3760 9176
      3760 9181 3767 9181 3769 9116 3759 9115
      3759 9131 3751 9131 3750 9121 3742 9121
      3741 9117 3726 9116 3725 9112 3720 9112
      3720 9109 3715 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 0438Z 277DEG 40KT 3765 9186 3750 9182 3736 9187 3727
9199

Titus

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1142 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

MOZ095-096-104-105-270530-
Douglas MO-Ozark MO-Taney MO-Christian MO-
1142 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OZARK...SOUTHWESTERN
DOUGLAS...SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN AND NORTHERN TANEY COUNTIES UNTIL
1230 AM CDT...

At 1142 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles southeast of Sparta to near Taneyville
to near Merriam Woods. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Taneycomo...                 Forsyth...
Merriam Woods...                  Kissee Mills...
Rockaway Beach...                 Taneyville...
Brownbranch...                    Thornfield...
Rome...                           Garrison...
Bradleyville...                   Long Run...
Walnut Shade...                   Powersite...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3673 9255 3665 9270 3663 9309 3681 9330
      3686 9311 3692 9293
TIME...MOT...LOC 0442Z 301DEG 27KT 3687 9291 3681 9303 3679 9321

Titus

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1225 AM CDT TUE AUG 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1156 PM     TSTM WND GST     CABOOL                  37.12N 92.10W
08/26/2019  M72 MPH          TEXAS              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RADIO STATION IN CABOOL MEASURED 72 MPH. THERE ARE ALSO
            TREES DAMAGED IN TOWN.

&&

DCRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1232 AM CDT TUE AUG 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1132 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE MANSFIELD         37.15N 92.56W
08/26/2019                   WRIGHT             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS DOWNED A TREE ACROSS
            HIGHWAY 5 BETWEEN MANSFIELD AND HARTVILLE.

&&

DCRAMER