Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
238 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Update: 18z KSGF sounding indicated a weak cap, but radar and
satellite imagery increasing shows evidence of weakening
inhibition with a small uptick in convective towers and isolated
radar returns. This is in line with recent HRRR guidance. In
general HRRR trends have been indicating a slightly later onset
time of more widespread convection versus runs from this morning,
however, the eastern cwfa should see scattered convection.
Shear/instability profiles (nearly 1000 j/kg mlcape and 50kts
0-6km bulk shear) are supportive of supercells with large hail the
main concern. A localized wind risk is also possible. A veered
low level wind profile should limit the overall tornado threat

The front is expected to shift east of the area this evening, so
expecting a a brief window for severe storms in our area.

After some brief clearing, low clouds should moves south on the
backside of the system with some drizzle expected late tonight and
Monday morning, especially in the northeast quarter of the cwfa.
Cloud will likely hold on into Monday night as well

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Tuesday: A ridge of high pressure will nose south form the Midwest
with finally some clearing expected Tuesday with seasonable
temperatures.

Wednesday: South winds will become gusty with warm weather as the
sfc high moves off and a large upper ridge builds over the central
CONUS.

Thursday-Friday-Saturday: The upper ridge flattens out and shifts
east as the southern branch of an upper level split flow pattern
becomes the main player in our weather. Moisture will spread north
in the persistent strong south low level flow on Thursday. By late
in the weak the surface pattern becomes more active with a wave of
low pressure likely to move through supported by a shortwave
moving through the central Rockies into the Plains. Decent
agreement with ECMWF and GFS in moving a sfc low through eastern
KS and MO with a trailing cold front Fri night.

Sunday: Guidance differs by this time on how far south the front
will get. The GFS is more active with another sfc wave moving
through the southern CONUS while the ECMWF is dry. Forecast
reflects a blend of guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A cold front will move through the taf sites
region early in the period. A mix of ceiling heights is occurring
ahead of the front which is now about 50 miles west of KJLN.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over
the next couple of hours affecting KSGF and KBBG. A brief period
of VFR conditions is expected immediately behind the front before
lower clouds (MVFR/IFR ceilings) move south into the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1246 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-251800-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1246 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

A cold front will move across the outlook area this afternoon and
this evening. Thunderstorm activity along the front is expected
to increase between 1 and 3 pm along a Versailles to Springfield
to Cassville line before shifting east through eastern portions of
the outlook area. The front is expected to pass south and east of
the area by 10 pm.

Shear and instability is expected to be supportive of supercells
capable of large hail up the size of ping pong balls. Wind gusts
of 60 mph will also be possible with some storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gusty south winds will be possible Wednesday and Thursday ahead
of developing low pressure across the Plains. A dry air mass will
be in place and when combined with the gusty winds could lead to
an elevated fire weather risk during the afternoon hours
Wednesday.

There will also be the potential for some thunderstorms from
Wednesday night into Saturday with the best coverage expected
Friday and Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today and this evening for
areas east of a Versailles to Springfield to Cassville line.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

DSA

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
515 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             ROBY                    37.52N 92.14W
03/24/2019  E1.75 INCH       TEXAS              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT FROM FIRE DEPT. RELAYED BY MEDIA
            PARTNER.

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
526 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             3 E GROVESPRING         37.41N 92.55W
03/24/2019  E1.00 INCH       WRIGHT             MO   STORM CHASER

            REPORT OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL EAST OF
            GROVESPRING, MO.

&&

KP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
534 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             3 S ROBY                37.47N 92.14W
03/24/2019  E2.00 INCH       TEXAS              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RELAYED FROM PUBLIC.

&&

DSA