Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
238 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Update: 18z KSGF sounding indicated a weak cap, but radar and
satellite imagery increasing shows evidence of weakening
inhibition with a small uptick in convective towers and isolated
radar returns. This is in line with recent HRRR guidance. In
general HRRR trends have been indicating a slightly later onset
time of more widespread convection versus runs from this morning,
however, the eastern cwfa should see scattered convection.
Shear/instability profiles (nearly 1000 j/kg mlcape and 50kts
0-6km bulk shear) are supportive of supercells with large hail the
main concern. A localized wind risk is also possible. A veered
low level wind profile should limit the overall tornado threat

The front is expected to shift east of the area this evening, so
expecting a a brief window for severe storms in our area.

After some brief clearing, low clouds should moves south on the
backside of the system with some drizzle expected late tonight and
Monday morning, especially in the northeast quarter of the cwfa.
Cloud will likely hold on into Monday night as well

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Tuesday: A ridge of high pressure will nose south form the Midwest
with finally some clearing expected Tuesday with seasonable
temperatures.

Wednesday: South winds will become gusty with warm weather as the
sfc high moves off and a large upper ridge builds over the central
CONUS.

Thursday-Friday-Saturday: The upper ridge flattens out and shifts
east as the southern branch of an upper level split flow pattern
becomes the main player in our weather. Moisture will spread north
in the persistent strong south low level flow on Thursday. By late
in the weak the surface pattern becomes more active with a wave of
low pressure likely to move through supported by a shortwave
moving through the central Rockies into the Plains. Decent
agreement with ECMWF and GFS in moving a sfc low through eastern
KS and MO with a trailing cold front Fri night.

Sunday: Guidance differs by this time on how far south the front
will get. The GFS is more active with another sfc wave moving
through the southern CONUS while the ECMWF is dry. Forecast
reflects a blend of guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A cold front will move through the taf sites
region early in the period. A mix of ceiling heights is occurring
ahead of the front which is now about 50 miles west of KJLN.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over
the next couple of hours affecting KSGF and KBBG. A brief period
of VFR conditions is expected immediately behind the front before
lower clouds (MVFR/IFR ceilings) move south into the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1246 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-251800-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1246 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

A cold front will move across the outlook area this afternoon and
this evening. Thunderstorm activity along the front is expected
to increase between 1 and 3 pm along a Versailles to Springfield
to Cassville line before shifting east through eastern portions of
the outlook area. The front is expected to pass south and east of
the area by 10 pm.

Shear and instability is expected to be supportive of supercells
capable of large hail up the size of ping pong balls. Wind gusts
of 60 mph will also be possible with some storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gusty south winds will be possible Wednesday and Thursday ahead
of developing low pressure across the Plains. A dry air mass will
be in place and when combined with the gusty winds could lead to
an elevated fire weather risk during the afternoon hours
Wednesday.

There will also be the potential for some thunderstorms from
Wednesday night into Saturday with the best coverage expected
Friday and Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today and this evening for
areas east of a Versailles to Springfield to Cassville line.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

DSA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
334 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

MOZ080-081-242115-
Dallas MO-Laclede MO-
334 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS AND LACLEDE
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 334 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Conway, or 13 miles southwest of Lebanon, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon...                        Bennett Spring State Park...
Morgan...                         Conway...
Phillipsburg...                   Twin Bridges...
Competition...                    Long Lane...
Dry Knob...                       Falcon...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 110 and 143.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central and southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3780 9241 3772 9241 3771 9239 3748 9234
      3749 9295 3766 9295
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 263DEG 22KT 3757 9286

Burchfield

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
356 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

MOZ082-097-098-242130-
Howell MO-Shannon MO-Texas MO-
356 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHANNON...
NORTHEASTERN HOWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
CDT...

At 355 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was reported near Willow
Springs, moving east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain View...                  Willow Springs...
Birch Tree...                     Summersville...
Montier...                        Alley Spring...
Teresita...                       Clear Springs...
Arroll...                         Pine Crest...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3692 9199 3709 9206 3729 9149 3698 9137
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 257DEG 39KT 3703 9191

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
407 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

MOZ082-092-242130-
Wright MO-Texas MO-
407 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WRIGHT AND CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 406 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cabool, or 9 miles northeast of Mountain Grove, moving east at 45
mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain Grove...                 Cabool...
Houston...                        Dawson...
Norwood...                        Raymondville...
Huggins...                        Bucyrus...
Graff...                          Elk Creek...
Success...                        Eunice...
Yukon...                          Solo...
Simmons...                        Prescott...
Bendavis...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central and southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3708 9242 3723 9247 3750 9203 3738 9177
      3716 9170
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 257DEG 38KT 3720 9212

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
415 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

MOZ070-081-082-242145-
Laclede MO-Pulaski MO-Texas MO-
415 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LACLEDE...SOUTHERN
PULASKI AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 415 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Fort Leonard Wood, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Leonard Wood...              Lebanon...
Morgan...                         Plato...
Twin Bridges...                   Roby...
Hazelton...                       Dry Knob...
Falcon...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 118 and 124.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central, south central, southwestern and east central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3751 9192 3749 9273 3761 9278 3782 9205
      3776 9202 3761 9203 3760 9196
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 263DEG 30KT 3757 9223

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