Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
308 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Another somewhat complex forecast scenario for tonight into
Saturday. Biggest question/concern is on MCS potential again
tonight into Saturday, with the question of where it will track.

Current MCS moving through the forecast area will exit the area by
early evening, with a continued threat for some severe wind gusts.
Once this complex exits it appears the evening will be quiet.

For tonight, models are showing slight height rises aloft as frontal
boundary extends from south central Kansas into northern Missouri.
18Z SGF special sounding shows quite a cap in place and models
suggest these warmer temperatures aloft remain in place across the
area through the overnight hours. Majority of CAMS support convection
developing along the Iowa/Missouri border and diving southeast.
Only the NAMNEST and NMMB being outliers showing MCS activity
through the heart of the forecast area, which appears to be a low
probability of occurrence. Will keep most areas dry tonight, with
probabilities late tonight across portions of central Missouri.

It will be a warm and muggy night tonight with lows just in the
lower to even mid 70s. Clouds maybe problematic with blow off from
today's convection and any overnight convection to our west and
north.

A continued hot and humid day is in store for Saturday. As it stands
now it looks to mainly dry. However, depending on any morning MCS
activity across the north and northeast will affect expected high
temperatures as well. For now will trends towards the drier and
warmer scenario with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat
index values in the mid and upper 90s and perhaps approaching 100.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

For Saturday night southwest upper flow establishes itself over the
area with an approaching trough. Convection over Kansas is expected
to congeal into an MCS and track into the forecast area Saturday
night with heavy rainfall and possible strong to severe
thunderstorms as well. The severe threat appears greatest over
southeast Kansas and far western Missouri.

This pattern remains in place all the way through early Monday with
very active weather continuing. Southwest upper flow remains in
place as the upper trough approaches the area. The gulf remains wide
open, with precipitable water values of 1.5 to 2 inches remaining in
place through the entire period. Expect several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms into Monday, with heavy rain likely and a renewed
threat of flooding and flash flooding. Certainly cannot rule out
some severer weather as well during the period.

The trough axis looks to finally push east of the area later Monday
night, with the summer time ridge across the southern conus
expanding northward through the end of the week. As a result, we can
expect a dry period along with warm and humid conditions, more
reminiscent of summer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

MCS currently tracking across the northern portions of the
forecast area at this time. Do not believe that the main
convective elements will make it into the terminal areas this
afternoon but there is a possibility that scattered convection
could develop along any outflow boundaries.

Winds will remain gusty through the afternoon into the evening and
there is a possibility of LLWS overnight. Convective models are
hinting at overnight activity but confidence is not high enough to
include at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Gaede

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
341 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-222045-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
341 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive heat risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

  A cluster of thunderstorms will continue tracking across south
  central Missouri through the mid to late afternoon hours. Damaging
  straight line winds to 60 mph along with one inch hail will be
  possible with these storms. There is also the potential for some
  localized flooding.

  Heat index values today will be near 100 in a few locations
  through the late afternoon hours. Southerly wind gusts of 25 to 35
  mph can also be expected across western Missouri and southeastern
  Kansas through the late afternoon hours.

  Another complex of thunderstorms may clip portions of central
  Missouri again late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

  Heat index values on Saturday afternoon will be around 100
  degrees.

  Additional showers and storms will again return to the area
  from Saturday night into Monday. Some strong to severe storms and
  heavy rainfall will be possible along with at least a limited
  risk for flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Raberding

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
253 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

MOZ092-095-096-103>105-212045-
Douglas MO-Wright MO-Ozark MO-Taney MO-Christian MO-Stone MO-
253 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OZARK...DOUGLAS...SOUTHERN
WRIGHT...CHRISTIAN...TANEY AND STONE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 250 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles south of Mountain Grove to near Crane.
Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.  Gusty
winds will proceed the parent thunderstorms and some locations may
experience the gusty winds but not receive rain.

Locations impacted include...
Nixa...                           Ozark...
Branson...                        Lake Taneycomo...
Table Rock Lake...                Bull Shoals Lake...
Table Rock State Park...          Norfork Lake...
Hollister...                      Silver Dollar City...
Ava...                            Kimberling City...
Forsyth...                        Clever...
Merriam Woods...                  Sparta...
Crane...                          Shell Knob...
Kissee Mills...                   Billings...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near Table Rock Lake, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CDT for
south central and southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3652 9357 3709 9359 3709 9296 3708 9290
      3707 9290 3707 9269 3709 9268 3708 9225
      3706 9224 3705 9209 3650 9214
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 325DEG 36KT 3703 9227 3692 9351

Wise

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 SSE WILLARD           37.23N 93.38W
06/21/2019  M40 MPH          GREENE             MO   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KSGF SPRINGFIELD ASOS.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
305 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSE WILLARD           37.24N 93.39W
06/21/2019  M40 MPH          GREENE             MO   ASOS

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND GST REPORT FROM 5
            SSE WILLARD TIME. ASOS MEASURED 35KT WINDS.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
313 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             STRAFFORD               37.27N 93.12W
06/21/2019  M1.00 INCH       GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM STRAFFORD
            FOR TIME. STRAFFORD IS REPORTING HEAVY,
            CONSISTENT QUARTER SIZED HAIL. TIME BASED ON
            RADAR.

&&

TEO