Alert archive / Missouri / River Flood Warnings in 2019

River Flood Warning 67, NWS Springfield, MO

June 21, 2019Cedar County, Missouri

NWS Springfield, MO issued this river flood warning at Jun 21, 2019, 8:59 AM CDT for Cedar County, Missouri. It was in force for 41 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jun 21, 2019, 8:59 AM CDT (13:59 UTC)
Expired: Jun 23, 2019, 2:03 AM CDT
In force: 41 hr
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

County Cedar County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Sac River near Caplinger Mills (CMZM7). The gauge peaked at 16.29 ft at Jun 21, 2019, 1:00 AM CDT.

Action stage: 14 ft
Minor stage: 16 ft
Moderate stage: 19 ft
Major stage: 28 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 06919900, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jun 21, 6:02 AM CDT, 2 hours 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 21, 6:02 AM CDT, 2 hours 57 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
602 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Another very difficult forecast with significant model
disagreement with the evolution of several MCSs moving through the
region.

A couple MCSs are rolling across southern NE and northern KS early
this morning. The southern end of this activity may clip the
northeastern CWA this morning or early afternoon as the complex
turns southeast. There remains considerable model variability
with the progression of this convection. Attention then turns to
this to this afternoon and evening as any outflow from the earlier
MCS may trigger some isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the
northeastern CWA. The strongly capped environment will limit
development, but if any convection can get going it will tap into
a highly unstable environment. Therefore, large hail and damaging
winds are a threat that will have to be watched based on evolution
of the morning MCS.

Expecting highs around 90 today, with some low 90s (92-93).
Greatest potential for an upset to this expectation is the unknown
of convection over the northeast. Dew points will top out at 72-77
degrees, greatest west of Highway 65. Resulting heat indices range
from around 100 to 105. May need at heat advisory over portions of
the western CWA if higher than expected heat indices occur.
Southerly winds will gust to 20-35 mph today, strongest over the
west.

The forecast for tonight is, unfortunately, no easier. Wide spread
in model guidance showing evolution of another series of MCSs
makes for limited confidence. A couple CAMs (NAM-Nest and WRF-NMM) have
an MCS diving south across the CWA late tonight into Sat morning
while others show storms brushing the north and east CWA, and even
others keeping convection well north. Thinking the solutions
bringing the MCS across the area not the way to go, so weighted
the forecast on the dry side.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Saturday looks dry for the most part (as long as the Fri night MCS
activity stays out of the area). It will again be a hot day with
highs around 90 and heat indices around 100.

The shifting of the upper trough to the east later this weekend
into early next work week will result in greater shower and
thunderstorm chances and coverage Sat night into Sun and another
round Sun night into Mon morning. Flooding will be a concern
depending on how convection lines up, especially given recent
rainfall and elevated river levels across portions of the area.
Temps will be cooler with the precip across the area.

A building upper ridge more typical of summer builds in mid to
late next week. Could see some isolated afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, but no widespread rain is expected. Highs will
generally be in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Main concerns this period is gusty southerly winds today and LLWS
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 21, 5:53 AM CDT, 3 hours 6 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 21, 9:41 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Benton, Morgan	49 min
Jun 21, 11:05 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	St. Clair, Vernon	55 min
Jun 21, 11:23 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Benton, Camden, Morgan	67 min
Jun 21, 11:56 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barton, Cedar, Hickory, Polk, St. Clair, Vernon	64 min
Jun 21, 12:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Benton, Camden, Miller, Morgan	45 min
Jun 21, 12:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Cedar, Hickory, Polk, St. Clair, Vernon	61 min
Jun 21, 1:12 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Camden, Pulaski	48 min
Jun 21, 1:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Camden, Miller, Pulaski	24 min
Jun 21, 1:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Christian, Dade, Dallas, Greene, Laclede, Lawrence and 3 more	64 min
Jun 21, 1:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Dent, Maries, Phelps, Pulaski	62 min
Jun 21, 1:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dallas, Greene, Polk	49 min
Jun 21, 2:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dent, Phelps, Texas	25 min
Jun 21, 2:24 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Shannon, Texas	66 min
Jun 21, 2:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dallas, Greene, Polk, Webster	67 min
Jun 21, 2:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Christian, Douglas, Ozark, Stone, Taney	52 min
Jun 21, 3:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Texas	44 min
Jun 21, 3:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Howell, Shannon, Texas	39 min
Jun 21, 3:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Douglas, Wright	33 min
Jun 21, 4:07 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Douglas, Howell, Oregon, Ozark	53 min
Jun 21, 4:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Oregon	53 min
Jun 21, 10:44 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Bourbon	46 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2019 Every river flood warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.