Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
215 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

A weak upper level disturbance is currently tracking east into
the area early this afternoon. Instability has increased with the
heat of the day. The cap that was in place is starting to weaken
and we should start seeing scattered storms develop for the mid
and late afternoon hours, mainly east of Highway 65.

The storms should be scattered in nature and not all locations
will be effected. Deep layer shear will not be overly strong,
with effective bulk shear values around 20 to 25kts. Vertical
theta-e differences are not overly strong, but will be a little
stronger across central MO where the deep layer shear will also be
strongest. Given this a few strong to severe storms will be
possible this afternoon and evening mainly north of Hwy 60 and
east of Hwy 65. The risk will be hail up to quarter size and
damaging wind gusts up to 60mph. These storms will have high
rainfall rates but given the scattered nature and this activity
being fairly progressive wide spread flooding is not expected.
Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible under the strongest
storms.

Highs today will increase into the middle 80s this afternoon.
Low level moisture has also increased across the area which will
allow heat index values to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s
this afternoon.

Highs will warm into the middle to upper 80s on Wednesday with
heat index values in the low to middle 90s. There will be the
potential for additional scattered storms on Wednesday.
Instability will  be stronger on Wednesday than today, but mid
level moisture will be drier through much of the afternoon hours.
This should limit storm strength but as we getting into late
afternoon and the evening hours, the mid level moisture should
begin to increase which may help lead to a strong to severe risk.
The main risk will be damaging winds risk as deep layer shear
will be weaker than today limiting the hail risk.  Locally heavy
rain will once again occur as heavy down pours occur with any
storm.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

An upper level low will track into and across the southern Plains
Thursday and Friday then into and through the area this weekend.
The low will bring periods of showers and storms to the area at
times from Thursday into the weekend. Medium range models are
coming in better agreement setting up the wider spread heavy rain
axis south of the area through Friday. Pwats will be high so
efficient/heavy rainfall will occur with any storms and there
will be the potential for flooding late this week, mainly across
southern Missouri. Rainfall amounts should decrease to the north
across the area, but locally heavy rainfall will still be possible
as any storm/shower will be proficient rainfall producers given
the moisture in place. Not expecting widespread severe storms, but
there is the potential for a few strong storms as the system
moves into and through the region Thursday and Friday.

Surface high pressure and a dry period is then expected early
next week behind the system.

Highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s are expected each
afternoon from Thursday through the weekend with lows in the
lower to middle 60s each night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

An upper level disturbance will track across the region this
afternoon and evening. Scattered storms are expected to develop,
but not all locations will be effect given the scattered nature.
Brief heavy rainfall and lower flight conditions will occur with
any storm. Some strong storms will be possible, especially across
central MO. Winds will be out of the south to southwest through
the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise

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