Flash Flood Warning 58, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
608 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

A weak upper level disturbance is currently tracking east into
the area early this afternoon. Instability has increased with the
heat of the day. The cap that was in place is starting to weaken
and we should start seeing scattered storms develop for the mid
and late afternoon hours, mainly east of Highway 65.

The storms should be scattered in nature and not all locations
will be effected. Deep layer shear will not be overly strong,
with effective bulk shear values around 20 to 25kts. Vertical
theta-e differences are not overly strong, but will be a little
stronger across central MO where the deep layer shear will also be
strongest. Given this a few strong to severe storms will be
possible this afternoon and evening mainly north of Hwy 60 and
east of Hwy 65. The risk will be hail up to quarter size and
damaging wind gusts up to 60mph. These storms will have high
rainfall rates but given the scattered nature and this activity
being fairly progressive wide spread flooding is not expected.
Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible under the strongest
storms.

Highs today will increase into the middle 80s this afternoon.
Low level moisture has also increased across the area which will
allow heat index values to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s
this afternoon.

Highs will warm into the middle to upper 80s on Wednesday with
heat index values in the low to middle 90s. There will be the
potential for additional scattered storms on Wednesday.
Instability will  be stronger on Wednesday than today, but mid
level moisture will be drier through much of the afternoon hours.
This should limit storm strength but as we getting into late
afternoon and the evening hours, the mid level moisture should
begin to increase which may help lead to a strong to severe risk.
The main risk will be damaging winds risk as deep layer shear
will be weaker than today limiting the hail risk.  Locally heavy
rain will once again occur as heavy down pours occur with any
storm.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

An upper level low will track into and across the southern Plains
Thursday and Friday then into and through the area this weekend.
The low will bring periods of showers and storms to the area at
times from Thursday into the weekend. Medium range models are
coming in better agreement setting up the wider spread heavy rain
axis south of the area through Friday. Pwats will be high so
efficient/heavy rainfall will occur with any storms and there
will be the potential for flooding late this week, mainly across
southern Missouri. Rainfall amounts should decrease to the north
across the area, but locally heavy rainfall will still be possible
as any storm/shower will be proficient rainfall producers given
the moisture in place. Not expecting widespread severe storms, but
there is the potential for a few strong storms as the system
moves into and through the region Thursday and Friday.

Surface high pressure and a dry period is then expected early
next week behind the system.

Highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s are expected each
afternoon from Thursday through the weekend with lows in the
lower to middle 60s each night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

An upper level wave is currently moving through the area setting
off convection in the vicinity of a surface warm front over
south-central Missouri. Convection has moved east of the KJLN and
KSGF terminal areas but may still affect the KBBG area through
01z. Expect MVFR ceilings and visibilities with occasional IFR
visibilities in the vicinity of the stronger convective cells.

As the convection exits the area by mid evening...expect mid to
high level clouds through the overnight periods. Diurnal cumulus
will begin forming from late morning through the afternoon. While
there will be no discernible front in the area...residual outflow
boundaries will provide a focus for widely scattered afternoon
convection on Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gaede

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
303 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-052015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
303 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
into this evening. A few of the strongest storms will be capable
of hail up to the size of quarters and damaging wind gusts to 60
mph mostly east of Highway 65. Cloud to ground lightning and
heavy downpours will also occur with any storm. A limited flooding
risk exists but it will be localized in nature.

In addition, heat index index values will reach into the lower
90s across southeast Kansas and western Missouri this afternoon
into early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heat index values will warm into the lower to middle 90s on
Wednesday.

Scattered storms will be possible again Wednesday afternoon and
evening. A few strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall
will be possible again. Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and hail to
the size of quarters will be the main risk mainly late Wednesday
afternoon and evening.

An upper level low will track towards and then through the area
late this week into the weekend. Periodic thunderstorms are
expected across the outlook area late this week into the weekend.
Some chances for strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible.
While it is too early to tell precisely where thunderstorms will
track, a renewed risk for flooding may materialize over parts of
the outlook area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed in the next three hours for
areas mostly east of Highway 65 in central and southern Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

DSA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
528 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

MOZ095-096-104-042300-
Douglas MO-Taney MO-Christian MO-
528 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS...
SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN AND NORTHEASTERN TANEY COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

At 528 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Taneyville, or 7 miles northeast of Forsyth, moving northeast at 35
mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Taneyville...                     Garrison...
Rome...                           Brownbranch...
Bradleyville...                   Goodhope...
Keltner...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3679 9312 3703 9290 3683 9268 3670 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 237DEG 30KT 3678 9304

Rothstein

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
532 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

MOZ081-091-092-096-042315-
Douglas MO-Wright MO-Laclede MO-Webster MO-
532 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WEBSTER...NORTHEASTERN
DOUGLAS...WRIGHT AND SOUTHERN LACLEDE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 532 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles east of Conway to near Seymour.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain Grove...                 Seymour...
Morgan...                         Mansfield...
Dawson...                         Norwood...
Hartville...                      Duncan...
Twin Bridges...                   Competition...
Manes...                          Lynchburg...
Graff...                          Grovespring...
Falcon...                         Rader...
Odin...

This includes Interstate 44 near mile marker 120.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
central, south central and southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3705 9281 3759 9273 3765 9226 3764 9225
      3711 9224 3699 9226
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 268DEG 24KT 3752 9267 3709 9274

Rothstein

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
547 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W OZARK               37.02N 93.25W
06/04/2019                   CHRISTIAN          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OF FLOODING OVER PARTS OF THE ROADWAY
            ON HIGHWAY JJ, JUST SOUTH OF OF 125.

&&

KP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
547 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W OZARK               37.02N 93.25W
06/04/2019                   CHRISTIAN          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OF FLOODING OVER PARTS OF THE ROADWAY
            ON HIGHWAY JJ, JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 125.

&&

KP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
602 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

MOZ083-042330-
Dent MO-
602 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DENT COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

At 602 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Bunker, or 14 miles southeast of Salem, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bunker...                         Turtle...
Boss...                           Howes Mill...
Stone Hill...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
south central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3759 9131 3751 9131 3750 9121 3741 9122
      3742 9134 3752 9143 3770 9130 3769 9116
      3759 9116
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 224DEG 26KT 3750 9134

Rothstein

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W OLIVE               37.45N 93.16W
06/04/2019                   DALLAS             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORT OF TWO POWER POLES DOWN ON HIGHWAY
            215 BETWEEN POTTERS ROAD AND RED TOP ROAD.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

KP