Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
434 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

All modes of severe weather and flooding are expected this evening
into tonight. A warm front has pushed into the southern portions
of the area this afternoon and is expected to make little
northward progress through this evening and early tonight. Along
and south of that front, storms will try to become surface based
with all modes of severe weather possible. Strongest storms will
be over southwest MO and extreme southeast KS where large hail to
2", damaging winds to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be
possible. This is very conditional on the evolution of upstream
convection, though, and will need to be watched closely. Flooding
will also be a significant concern over the southwester part of
the CWA as training convection and ample moisture coincide. A
Flash Flood Watch remains in effect.

A line of severe thunderstorms is then expected to move west to
east across the area on Tuesday, starting midday and going through
the evening. Strong winds and an isolated tornado will be the
primary threat with large hail also being possible. Additional
heavy rain, although brief given the speed of the line, will lead
to additional flooding where excessive rain falls into tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

No significant changes were made to the long term forecast.
Looking at above normal temperatures with highs in the 80s and
chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly NW of I-44.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the TAF
period, with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes
possible with each round. Initial storms this afternoon will
mainly have a large hail threat, transitioning to all threats
tonight. A line of severe thunderstorms will move west to east
across the area from mid day Tuesday through Tuesday evening, with
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes the primary severe weather
risks. Pilots flying in and out of airports in the area will have
to monitor these threats closely. Low level wind shear is expected
tonight with strong southerly low level flow.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for MOZ066-077>079-
     088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
313 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-212015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
313 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Extreme flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

 Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to impact areas
 mainly along and west of Highway 65 into this evening as an
 unstable airmass interacts with warm front moving northward
 across the region. The main threat will be large hail to the
 size of golf balls and damaging winds up to 70 mph.

 Late this evening, and tonight, severe weather is expected to
 continue with all modes of severe weather possible.

 Moderate to heavy rainfall will bring the potential for
 flooding, mainly along and west of Highway 65 this afternoon
 through tonight. Multiple rounds of storms are expected to occur
 with 1 to 4 inches of rain possible. Some localized rainfall
 amounts may exceed 5 inches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

 On Tuesday another round of strong to severe storms will be
 possible across the entire region as a strong storm system
 approaches the area. All modes of severe weather will be
 possible.

 The potential for flooding will continue Tuesday, as additional
 moderate to heavy rainfall is expected.

 Intermittent storm activity is expected through the end of next
 weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed in the next six hours for
  southwest Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Titus

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
208 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     HAIL             NEOSHO                  36.87N 94.37W
05/20/2019  E0.70 INCH       NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME SIZED HAIL IN NEOSHO.

&&

CKR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
218 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 PM     HAIL             2 SE GRANBY             36.90N 94.23W
05/20/2019  E1.00 INCH       NEWTON             MO   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED 2SE OF GRANBY
            MISSOURI. PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED VIA MEDIA.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
420 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST MINERAL            37.29N 94.92W
05/20/2019                   CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN. WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 MPH.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
425 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE ROSELAND          37.27N 94.84W
05/20/2019                   CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN. WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 MPH.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
436 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TORNADO          3 N CARONA              37.33N 94.87W
05/20/2019                   CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SPOTTER SAW TORNADO. TIME BASED ON RADAR.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
455 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     TORNADO          3 SSE CHICOPEE          37.34N 94.72W
05/20/2019                   CHEROKEE           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND.

&&

TEO