Alert archive / Missouri / River Flood Warnings in 2019

River Flood Warning 47, NWS Springfield, MO

May 20, 2019Bates County, Vernon County, Missouri

NWS Springfield, MO issued this river flood warning at May 20, 2019, 2:07 PM CDT for Bates County, Vernon County, Missouri. It took effect at May 21, 2019, 3:30 AM CDT. It was in force for 60 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 20, 2019, 2:07 PM CDT (19:07 UTC)
In effect from: May 21, 2019, 3:30 AM CDT
Expired: Jul 20, 2019, 6:43 AM CDT
In force: 60 days
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

Counties Bates County, MO, Vernon County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Osage River near Schell City (SCZM7). The gauge peaked at 44.59 ft at May 29, 2019, 6:00 AM CDT.

Action stage: 28 ft
Minor stage: 30 ft
Moderate stage: 35 ft
Major stage: 45 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 06918070, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at May 20, 12:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 20, 12:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1256 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Surface high pressure currently over the region will push
northeast of the region through this morning by a strong storm
system currently developing across the plains.

Deep southwest flow aloft will bring a vigorous upper level short
wave into the Ozarks as an upper level jet noses into the area.
Additionally, a low level jet will begin to move into the area
through today and into tonight.

With southerly flow, moisture and instability will increase
rapidly late this afternoon and into the evening. Models spread
between 800-1500 j/kg of ML CAPE and from 1.8 to 2 inches of
precipitable water into the southwestern Missouri by 00z.

These ingredients will provide the fuel for severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and through tonight. This will also provide the
moisture for areas of heavy rainfall. Where these occur will be
determined by where a northward moving warm front becomes
positioned.

This front will provide a significant focus for where severe
storms and flooding rains occur. There are some differences in
short term/CAMS models and global models in where the heaviest
rains falls. Have leaned towards the short term/Cams and
ECMWF/UKMET precipitation outputs since the GFS/NAM are currently
outliers and farther north with the axis of heavy rainfall.

With such a dynamic system, all modes of severe weather will be
possible this afternoon and into tonight. Large hail to golf
balls, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected this afternoon
and through tonight. Areas along and west of I-49 will have the
best potential for the most significant storms.

A Flash Flood Watch has been expanded eastward to along the
Highway 65 corridor and will now start at 1 pm today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Showers and storms will be ongoing into Tuesday morning as the
storm system moves across the plains. The system will begin to
lift north and swing a cold front through the Ozarks during the
day Tuesday. This is expected to be a strongly forced squall line
or possible QLCS with continuing chances for severe weather and
heavy rainfall. The cold front is expected to move east of the
area by Tuesday evening.

A brief rain free period is then expected through Wednesday
evening. However, as todays storm continues to lift north, another
warm front will lift into the area Wednesday night into Thursday
and bring another round of rainfall to the area.

Southwest flow aloft will continue through the end of the week
and into the weekend with several shortwaves moving through the
flow and brining additional rounds of rain as we head into the
Memorial Day weekend. Where the rain occurs will depend on the
strength of high pressure over the southeast conus and how far
north the associated ridge will make it. Either way, temperatures
this weekend will be warmer with highs in the 80s region wide.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the TAF
period, with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes
possible with each round. Initial storms this afternoon will
mainly have a large hail threat, transitioning to all threats
tonight. A line of severe thunderstorms will move west to east
across the area from mid day Tuesday through Tuesday evening, with
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes the primary severe weather
risks. Pilots flying in and out of airports in the area will have
to monitor these threats closely. Low level wind shear is expected
tonight with strong southerly low level flow.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for MOZ066-077>079-
     088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous weather outlook, May 20, 1:23 PM CDT, 44 minutes before

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 20, 1:43 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
143 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     HAIL             BAXTER SPRINGS          37.02N 94.73W
05/20/2019  E0.70 INCH       CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN BAXTER SPRINGS.

&&

CKR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 20, 1:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Jasper, McDonald, Newton	62 min
May 20, 2:07 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	SGF	Vernon	19 days
May 20, 2:07 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	SGF	Vernon	11 days
May 20, 2:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barry, Lawrence, Newton	38 min
May 20, 4:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barton, Jasper	52 min
May 20, 4:19 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Barton, Jasper	26 min
May 20, 4:19 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Barton, Jasper	26 min
May 20, 4:36 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Barton, Vernon	24 min
May 20, 4:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barton, Cedar, Dade, Jasper, Vernon	34 min
May 20, 4:57 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	SGF	Jasper	4 days
May 20, 4:57 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	SGF	Jasper	6 days
May 20, 4:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Jasper, Newton	46 min
May 20, 5:24 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Jasper, Newton	36 min
May 20, 5:31 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Jasper, Newton	6 hr
May 20, 5:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dade, Jasper, Lawrence, Newton	39 min
May 20, 6:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dade, Jasper, Lawrence	39 min
May 20, 6:22 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SGF	Barton, Jasper	6 hr
May 20, 6:23 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Cedar, Dade	37 min
May 20, 6:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barton, Dade, Jasper, Lawrence	39 min
May 20, 6:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Cedar, Dade, Polk	66 min
May 20, 2:07 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	SGF	Bourbon	69 hr
May 20, 4:57 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	SGF	Cherokee	6 days

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2019 Every river flood warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.