Flash Flood Warning 81, NWS Springfield, MO

592 
WGUS73 KSGF 051913
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
213 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

MOC039-059-085-167-185-060000-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0081.000000T0000Z-190706T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hickory MO-Dallas MO-Cedar MO-Polk MO-St. Clair MO-
213 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR
HICKORY...NORTHWESTERN DALLAS...NORTHEASTERN CEDAR...NORTHERN POLK
AND ST. CLAIR COUNTIES...

At 208 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms remained over
the warned area. Up to three inches of rain have already fallen. 
Flash flooding is already occurring. The Missouri Department of 
Transportation reported flooded roadways over northern Polk County 
in Humansville, and over western St. Clair County along routes A, H 
and BB.

Creeks, streams, and low water crossings will be especially
susceptible to the dangers of flash flooding.

This warning includes but is not limited to the following low water
crossings...
Route C north of Buffalo at Lindley Creek...
Route AA at The Pomme de Terre east of Bolivar...
Route V at Weaubleau Creek east of Flemington...
Route P, 2 miles south of Highway 64...
and Route HH, 1 Mile east of Urbana.

Additional rainfall amounts of up to an inch are possible in
the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3820 9367 3809 9356 3807 9350 3807 9336
      3795 9310 3774 9294 3760 9329 3772 9368
      3792 9392 3809 9406 3821 9405

$$

Terry

448 
WGUS73 KSGF 052216
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
516 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

MOC039-059-085-167-185-052224-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0081.000000T0000Z-190706T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hickory MO-Dallas MO-Cedar MO-Polk MO-St. Clair MO-
516 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR HICKORY...NORTHWESTERN DALLAS...
NORTHEASTERN CEDAR...NORTHERN POLK AND ST. CLAIR COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flash flooding is no longer expected to
pose a threat to life or property. However many low lying areas will 
remain flooded. Thus the Flash Flood Warning has been replaced with a 
Flood Warning for most of the previously warned area. Please continue 
to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3820 9367 3809 9356 3807 9350 3807 9336
      3795 9310 3774 9294 3760 9329 3772 9368
      3792 9392 3809 9406 3821 9405

$$

Terry

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1257 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

An MCV will continue to track southeast across the Missouri Ozarks
this morning. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will persist in
proximity to this feature. We will likely see some rather high
rainfall rates beneath some of these cells. Thus, any training of
thunderstorms may result in flash flooding.

Depending on how quickly this MCV moves southeast, it is quite
possible that activity lingers into this afternoon across the
eastern Ozarks. Areas of western Missouri and southeastern Kansas
may see a window of dry weather for at least a portion of the
afternoon.

We will then have to watch the status of convection developing
across southern Nebraska in the vicinity of a surface boundary.
Multiple CAMs are indicating this convection growing upscale into
at least one MCS with this activity potentially tracking south
into portions of southeastern Kansas and western Missouri this
afternoon or early this evening. If this situation materializes,
there will be the potential for damaging wind gusts given the
presence of very high CAPE and low-level theta-e differences
(supportive of strong cold pools).

Given the uncertainties in convective and cloud coverage today, we
have stuck pretty close to a model consensus blend for today's
highs. Areas of the central and eastern Ozarks should see highs
in the middle 80s. Temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90
degrees are forecast for locations along and west of the I-49
corridor.

Any leftover convection over the eastern Ozarks should then
quickly die off this evening. We will have to watch upstream for
additional MCS potential as a low-level jet stream interacts with
that boundary near the KS/NE border. We kept PoPs in the 20-40%
range tonight as it is difficult to pinpoint where a potential MCS
might track. Regardless, we will have to watch for the continued
potential for flash flooding, especially for locations that
receive multiple rounds of storms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

Chances for storms will then continue into this weekend as the
area will remain in the potential track for MCSs. Afternoon pop-up
storms will also remain possible depending on the timing of MCSs.
Global models do indicate that an upper level ridge will try and
build over the central U.S. early next week. However, there are
still some signals for embedded short wave energy tracking across
the central Plains. Thus, we kept slight chance PoPs going for
much of the area. Temperatures should warm a few degrees early
next week with those weak height rises.

Global models then suggest that a summertime ridge will shift west
towards the Four Corners region starting around the middle of next
week, thus putting our area in a northwest flow aloft. This would
support a frontal boundary slipping south into the region with
perhaps a slightly better chance for storms. Temperatures should
cool at least a few degrees if this scenario pans out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

Have maintained vicinity thunderstorms at all sites through the
afternoon with continued thunderstorm development along outflow
boundaries across the forecast area.

Another round of storms developing over northern Kansas is
expected to drop southeast and move across the region later
tonight, mainly after 06Z. Will mainly carry MVFR ceilings / vis
with storm activity.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Terry

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1251 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-061800-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1251 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms will continue to slowly
push southeast across west central and central Missouri through
the afternoon. As several rounds of storms have affected this
region since early morning, flash flooding will be the greatest
threat. Frequent lightning and a few wind gusts over 50 mph will
also be possible.

Additional thunderstorm development will occur along an outflow
boundary that extends across south central Missouri and locations
near the Arkansas border. Severe wind gusts over 60 mph, heavy
rainfall and frequent lightning will be possible with the stronger
storms in this area.

Heat indices this afternoon will warm into the lower and middle
90s, especially over western Missouri and southeastern Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible through
the weekend and into the middle of next week. While organized
severe weather is not expected, a few storms may produce locally
gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

Afternoon heat indices in the 90s to around 100 degrees can be
expected through the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Terry