Flash Flood Warning 80, NWS Springfield, MO

964 
WGUS73 KSGF 051427
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
927 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

MOC217-051433-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0080.000000T0000Z-190705T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Vernon MO-
927 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR VERNON COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 930 AM
CDT...

While flash flooding and rapidly rising water is no longer expected, 
flooding will linger across the region, and a flood warning remains 
in effect through late afternoon. 

Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3805 9460 3805 9424 3803 9423 3805 9421
      3804 9419 3805 9412 3804 9411 3805 9410
      3803 9408 3803 9406 3764 9408 3765 9462

$$

Terry

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
313 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

An MCV will continue to track southeast across the Missouri Ozarks
this morning. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will persist in
proximity to this feature. We will likely see some rather high
rainfall rates beneath some of these cells. Thus, any training of
thunderstorms may result in flash flooding.

Depending on how quickly this MCV moves southeast, it is quite
possible that activity lingers into this afternoon across the
eastern Ozarks. Areas of western Missouri and southeastern Kansas
may see a window of dry weather for at least a portion of the
afternoon.

We will then have to watch the status of convection developing
across southern Nebraska in the vicinity of a surface boundary.
Multiple CAMs are indicating this convection growing upscale into
at least one MCS with this activity potentially tracking south
into portions of southeastern Kansas and western Missouri this
afternoon or early this evening. If this situation materializes,
there will be the potential for damaging wind gusts given the
presence of very high CAPE and low-level theta-e differences
(supportive of strong cold pools).

Given the uncertainties in convective and cloud coverage today, we
have stuck pretty close to a model consensus blend for today's
highs. Areas of the central and eastern Ozarks should see highs
in the middle 80s. Temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90
degrees are forecast for locations along and west of the I-49
corridor.

Any leftover convection over the eastern Ozarks should then
quickly die off this evening. We will have to watch upstream for
additional MCS potential as a low-level jet stream interacts with
that boundary near the KS/NE border. We kept PoPs in the 20-40%
range tonight as it is difficult to pinpoint where a potential MCS
might track. Regardless, we will have to watch for the continued
potential for flash flooding, especially for locations that
receive multiple rounds of storms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

Chances for storms will then continue into this weekend as the
area will remain in the potential track for MCSs. Afternoon pop-up
storms will also remain possible depending on the timing of MCSs.
Global models do indicate that an upper level ridge will try and
build over the central U.S. early next week. However, there are
still some signals for embedded short wave energy tracking across
the central Plains. Thus, we kept slight chance PoPs going for
much of the area. Temperatures should warm a few degrees early
next week with those weak height rises.

Global models then suggest that a summertime ridge will shift west
towards the Four Corners region starting around the middle of next
week, thus putting our area in a northwest flow aloft. This would
support a frontal boundary slipping south into the region with
perhaps a slightly better chance for storms. Temperatures should
cool at least a few degrees if this scenario pans out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

Hazy/smokey conditions due to fireworks will continue overnight
reducing vis locally to MVFR at times. An area of showers and
storms will attempt to move south towards the area overnight and
may reach the JLN and SGF areas before 12z however confidence is
still rather low. Additional showers and storms are possible on
Friday afternoon and evening. Winds will remain light out of the
south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Burchfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
856 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-060200-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
856 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

An area of showers and storms across west central Missouri will
slowly move to the southeast tonight into locations mainly north
of I-44 and especially closer to US highway 54. The main threats
will be frequent cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy
rainfall that may result in flash flooding. There is still some
uncertainty as to how far south this area of showers and storms
will go overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible through
the weekend, especially during the afternoon and early evening
hours. While organized severe weather is not expected, a few
storms may produce locally gusty winds.

Afternoon heat indices in the 90s to around 100 degrees can be
expected through the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield