Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
212 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will slide across the area today into tonight, followed
by another front Sunday. This second front will change our
airmass to a cooler one for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #300 is in effect for the entire CWA
until 03Z/11PM this evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected across the forecast area this afternoon and evening.

A shortwave trough over the Lower Ohio River Valley will
move southeast and through the central Appalachians this
afternoon, reaching coastal Virginia/North Carolina by early
Saturday. Ahead of it, a cyclonically curved belt of moderately
strong westerlies (30-50 kt at 500 mb) was observed.

Scattered cloud cover will allow for near full insolation early
this afternoon, destabilization leading to scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. Modified sounding from RNK this
morning suggests SBCAPE of near 2000 j/kg expected this
afternoon. Cold advection aloft associated with the upper trof
(M14/M16 deg C observed at 500 mb at KILN/KPBZ respectively vs.
M11 deg C at RNK), will result in lower freezing levels and
increasing mid-level lapse rates.

The greatest overlap of buoyancy and stronger winds aloft, with
upwards of 35-40 kt effective shear, will exist across the majority
of our area east of the Blue Ridge.  A few supercells will be
possible but the greater threat will be storms organizing into
clusters promoting damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Hi-Res Convective allowing models suggest coverage will be
pretty widespread (55-75 percent coverage) during the 2PM-8PM
time frame. Being Friday and the end of the school year,
there will be a lot of outdoor events going on this afternoon
and evening. Lightning safety is of the utmost importance today,
folks in charge of outdoor graduations needing to pay close
attention to radar trends as we progress through the afternoon.

Again, it appears multicell clusters will be the convective
mode, and damaging winds and large hail will be the main threat.
The tornado parameters are not that great for our area, but
with the upper trof passing overhead late in the day, enough
spin in the atmosphere may be present over the piedmont late in
the day to support supercells. Isolated tornadoes have been
mentioned in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, and based on
environment will have it east of Lynchburg to Danville to
Reidsville line.

Temperatures this afternoon will not be quite as warm as
yesterday given the increase coverage in shower activity and
lowering heights aloft. Highs will range from the 70s in the
mountains, to lower to mid 80s across the foothills/piedmont.

The upper trough moves overhead by late evening with main batch of
storms heading east of our area during this time, so will see pops
lowering from west to east this evening. With residual moisture and
upper trough axis lingering, a few showers may stick around in the
foothills/piedmont overnight, though kept coverage isolated. May see
some fog in the mountains late tonight as well. Lows cooler with
lower to mid 50s mountains, to around 60 across the foothills and
piedmont.

Overall confidence in severe threat and coverage of storms
this afternoon and evening is medium to high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Weak high pressure will build east across our area Saturday into
Saturday night. Most locations will remain dry with lack of
mid/upper moisture and forcing. However, allowed for isolated
showers or storms across the higher terrain with some low level
moisture and surface convergence. High temperatures Saturday will
vary from around 70 degrees in the mountains to the mid 80s in the
piedmont.

Under clear to partly cloudy conditions, Saturday night low
temperatures will feel more comfortable with readings from
the mid 50s in the west to the lower 60s in the east.

A cold front will move south through the region Sunday, associated
with showers and thunderstorms. Passage of this front will usher in
a much cooler drier airmass Sunday night into Monday. High
temperatures on Sunday will range from around 70 degrees in the
mountains to the mid 80s in the piedmont. Low temperatures Sunday
night into Monday morning will generally be from the mid 40s in the
northern mountains to near 60 degrees in the piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

An upper low over eastern Canada is forecast to amplify Monday,
High pressure expanding south through the Great Lakes, Ohio
Valley and Mid Atlantic. The associated cool dry stable
airmass will introduce a cooler than temperatures for New
England and the northern Mid-Atlantic. It will feel
considerably cooler for the southern Mid-Atlantic into the
southeast States too, but with temperature readings closer to
normal. With dewpoints falling into the 30s/40s, it should feel
refreshingly cooler for a few days before the airmass modifies
mid-week.

Fair weather is anticipated both Monday and Tuesday, then become
unsettled again for the second half of the week as return
southerly flow brings increasing moisture in addition to the
approach of another cold front. Models suggest this front will
stall as it approaches the area Thursday, translating into a
multi-day threat for showers and thundershowers for Thursday
and beyond. Coolest temperatures are expected Monday and
Tuesday, then moderate back above normal for the second half of
the week.

The Climate Prediction Center's 6 to 10 day outlook favors
above normal temperatures and above normal rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #300 is in effect for all forecast
terminals within the RNK CWA until 03Z/11PM this evening.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the forecast
area this afternoon and evening.

A shortwave trough over the Lower Ohio River Valley will
move southeast and through the central Appalachians this
afternoon, reaching coastal Virginia/North Carolina by early
Saturday. This feature in combination with the afternoon heating
will result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
areawide. Cold air aloft which is associated with the upper
trough will result in lowering freezing levels favoring hail
storms. Ahead of the trough, a cyclonically curved belt of
moderately strong westerlies (30-50 kt at 500 mb) was observed.
This will result in fast moving thunderstorm cells capable of
damaging surface gusts, downbursts and extreme turbulence.

Threat is expected to abate after sunset, however, the trough is
slow moving, so showers will linger through the overnight.

Partial clearing is expected Saturday with a return to VFR for
the afternoon. Another front will cross the forecast area Sunday
with the potential for another round of showers and
thunderstorms associated with the frontal passage.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Passage of a surface front Sunday will introduce a cooler drier
airmass for Monday and Tuesday. Primary flight category VFR.

Unsettled conditions are expected to return for the second half
of the week with the return of moisture and moderating
temperatures.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
134 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043-WVZ042>044-507-
508-011745-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-
Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
134 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ005-006-VAZ044>047-058-059-011745-
Rockingham-Caswell-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-
Halifax-Charlotte-
134 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

RCS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
154 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

NCZ003-VAZ032-311830-
Surry-Patrick-
154 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SURRY AND SOUTHWESTERN PATRICK
COUNTIES...

Until 230 PM EDT.

At 153 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Bottom, moving
east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Airy...
Flat Rock...
Dobson...
Pilot Mountain...
and Bottom.

LAT...LON 3641 8088 3653 8088 3656 8068 3656 8061
      3657 8061 3660 8045 3632 8046
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 269DEG 18KT 3646 8080

VFJ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
301 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     HAIL             3 ENE DANBURY           36.42N 80.17W
05/31/2019  E1.00 INCH       STOKES             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER CALLED IN AND REPORTED QUARTER SIZE
            HAIL AT THE CORNER OF STANLEY AND PITZER RD,
            NEAR DANBURY. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

RR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
314 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

WVZ507-508-311930-
Western Greenbrier-Eastern Greenbrier-
314 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY...

Until 330 PM EDT.

At 313 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Leonard, moving
east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and hail up to dime size are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Leonard...
Beartown State Park...
Duo...
and Rorer.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3822 8036 3811 8036 3805 8026 3805 8013
      3806 8007 3806 8005 3804 8005 3803 8062
      3812 8065 3827 8044
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 260DEG 26KT 3813 8042

Loconto