Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
704 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Little change in the weather pattern is expected through
Saturday, as an old frontal boundary will combine with upper
level disturbances to keep showers and thunderstorms across the
Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region into the weekend.
The boundary will continue to weaken and erode Sunday through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...

In similar fashion to the last several days, scattered
thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon. Not a lot
of dynamic support for widespread organized convection, but
outflow boundary interaction, moderate instability, and elevated
DCAPE values will help storms produce strong gusty winds. Heavy
rainfall is also possible with the stronger storms, and while
precipitable water values are a bit lower today slow storm
motion and training cells will create some localized hydro
issues.

Expect a diurnal trend to convection, though there are indications
that boundary interactions will keep showers/storms going east
of the Blue Ridge a bit deeper into the night. There will also
be some fog, especially in the valleys west of the Blue Ridge.

With little change in the overall pattern and a steady supply of
subtle short waves, expect another round of showers/thunder on
Thursday with a continued localized severe/hydro threat.

Temperatures tonight will be mild with readings in the 60s.
Highs tomorrow will be cooler with readings generally in the
lower 80s east of the Ridge, mid/upper 70s to the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...

Weak frontal boundary should linger across the region into Saturday
night, shifting south Sunday. Airmass remains unstable/moist during
this time, though best coverage for storms will be Friday evening
and Saturday, with a bit of lull Sat night/early Sunday.

Will see best coverage closer to the front Sunday in the southern
forecast area. Temps will run close to seasonal normals for highs
and lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...

Models stay fairly consistent this period with a broad trough across
the Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley. One shortwave moves
across Monday into early Tuesday, the another arrives by Thursday.
Adjusted pops based on the blend of the ECMWF and GFS allowing for
more coverage Monday ahead of the shortwave, with more diurnal/less
coverage Tuesday-Wednesday, the better chances for Thursday.

The airmass maintains the humidity and close to seasonal normals for
early August through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 700 PM EDT Thursday...

Bands/clusters of thunderstorms continue to linger across the
south and west where instability is also being undercut via
outflow from earlier convection. Expect a diurnal trend to
convection again this evening, though there are some
indications that boundary interactions will keep showers/storms
going east of the Blue Ridge a bit deeper into the night but
iffy. Some storms will produce heavy rainfall and reduce flight
categories to MVFR/IFR. To cover the situation will continue the
use of VCTS, with an early tempo especially along/west of the
Blue Ridge, and amend as necessary. Also expect some fog
overnight, especially west of the Blue Ridge, with some
locations trending down to IFR/LIFR. Convection will fire once
again on Friday with VCSH early on followed by prevailing tsra
in spots Friday afternoon.

Winds near thunderstorms will be variable and gusty. Winds
outside of storms will generally be light.

.Extended Aviation Discussion...

A weak boundary will remain close to the region through
Saturday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with
periods of sub-VFR ceilings can be expected through Sunday or
Monday with coverage becoming less by Tuesday. This pattern
will also result in MVFR or lower clouds and MVFR fog due to
moist low levels, especially at night.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/JH/MBS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
456 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-020900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
456 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms may produce locally
heavy rainfall this afternoon until late this evening. Localized
flooding is possible. A few of the more intense storms may be strong
to severe, with the primary threat damaging wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected both
Friday and Saturday. The main hazard will be locally heavy rainfall.
The repeated may result in localized flooding. A few storms could
also be strong to severe, with the primary threat damaging wind.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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