Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
207 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Little change in the weather pattern is expected through
Saturday, as an old frontal boundary will combine with upper
level disturbances to keep showers and thunderstorms across the
Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region into the weekend.
The boundary will continue to weaken and erode Sunday through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...

In similar fashion to the last several days, scattered
thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon. Not a lot
of dynamic support for widespread organized convection, but
outflow boundary interaction, moderate instability, and elevated
DCAPE values will help storms produce strong gusty winds. Heavy
rainfall is also possible with the stronger storms, and while
precipitable water values are a bit lower today slow storm
motion and training cells will create some localized hydro
issues.

Expect a diurnal trend to convection, though there are indications
that boundary interactions will keep showers/storms going east
of the Blue Ridge a bit deeper into the night. There will also
be some fog, especially in the valleys west of the Blue Ridge.

With little change in the overall pattern and a steady supply of
subtle short waves, expect another round of showers/thunder on
Thursday with a continued localized severe/hydro threat.

Temperatures tonight will be mild with readings in the 60s.
Highs tomorrow will be cooler with readings generally in the
lower 80s east of the Ridge, mid/upper 70s to the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...

Weak frontal boundary should linger across the region into Saturday
night, shifting south Sunday. Airmass remains unstable/moist during
this time, though best coverage for storms will be Friday evening
and Saturday, with a bit of lull Sat night/early Sunday.

Will see best coverage closer to the front Sunday in the southern
forecast area. Temps will run close to seasonal normals for highs
and lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...

Models stay fairly consistent this period with a broad trough across
the Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley. One shortwave moves
across Monday into early Tuesday, the another arrives by Thursday.
Adjusted pops based on the blend of the ECMWF and GFS allowing for
more coverage Monday ahead of the shortwave, with more diurnal/less
coverage Tuesday-Wednesday, the better chances for Thursday.

The airmass maintains the humidity and close to seasonal normals for
early August through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...

Scattered thunderstorms have developed once again early this
afternoon and anticipate a scenario quite similar the past
several days. Expect a diurnal trend to convection, though there
are some indications that boundary interactions will keep
showers/storms going east of the Blue Ridge a bit deeper into
the night. Some storms will produce heavy rainfall and reduce
flight categories to MVFR/IFR. To cover the situation will
employ liberal use of VCTS, with an early tempo especially
along/west of the Blue Ridge, and amend as necessary. Also
expect some fog overnight, especially west of the Blue Ridge,
with some locations trending down to IFR/LIFR. Convection will
fire once again on Friday with VCTS for the latter portion of
the TAF period.

Winds near thunderstorms will be variable and gusty. Winds
outside of storms will generally be light.

.Extended Aviation Discussion...

A weak boundary will remain close to the region through
Saturday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with
periods of sub-VFR ceilings can be expected through Sunday or
Monday with coverage becoming less by early next week. This
pattern will also result in MVFR or lower clouds and MVFR fog
due to moist low levels, especially at night.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...WHP
LONG TERM...WHP
AVIATION...MBS/AMS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
456 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-020900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
456 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms may produce locally
heavy rainfall this afternoon until late this evening. Localized
flooding is possible. A few of the more intense storms may be strong
to severe, with the primary threat damaging wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected both
Friday and Saturday. The main hazard will be locally heavy rainfall.
The repeated may result in localized flooding. A few storms could
also be strong to severe, with the primary threat damaging wind.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
413 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

VAZ010-012-013-012100-
Pulaski-Bland-Wythe-
413 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN PULASKI, SOUTHERN BLAND
AND NORTHEASTERN WYTHE COUNTIES...

Until 500 PM EDT.

At 412 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Max Meadows,
moving east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wytheville...
Max Meadows...
Long Spur...
Grahams Forge...
and Gunton Park.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3695 8107 3706 8109 3716 8082 3691 8078
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 261DEG 7KT 3702 8101

VFJ