Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
248 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front exits south later this evening. High pressure this
weekend. Another front Tuesday, lingering through late
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As 205 PM Friday...

Cold front from NE WV down to SW VA will continue to move
southward and exits later this evening. Any showers or
thunderstorms will exit with it. Plenty of dry air will filter
in from north to south overnight. This will cool temperatures
down to forecast dewpoints and expect areas of fog to form
during the early morning hours of Saturday.

Fog should dissipate after sunrise, but areas that saw rain
this afternoon and evening could see fog linger a little longer.

High pressure will continue to build in behind the front tonight
and continue through the weekend. Providing sunny and pleasant
weather for Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 PM Friday...

The change in airmass will have a relatively short lifespan as
weak high pressure settles into the central Appalachians. It
will drop the dewpoints low enough for the temperatures to dip
into the upper 50s Saturday night, particularly across the
northern zones. A few waves running through the northwest flow
aloft will lack the moisture need to spark any sort of
convection, so the forecast remains dry in the short term.
Temperatures push back into the upper 80s for the lowlands from
airmass modification. Will see some increases in the column RH
Monday across the west ahead of the next frontal system for the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 PM Friday...

Should expect the lower level flows to increase in response to a
deepening low pressure system heading into the southern Great
Lakes Monday night. This is going to end up another case where
there likely is not enough amplification in the 500mb flow to
get a clean push of the front through the CWA Tuesday. Expect
the front to stall out over the southern mountains with
recurring chances for storms from the time of arrival early
Tuesday morning into the Thursday time frame. Temperatures
remain on the warm side with some very slight modification once
the front finally clears the region. Upper level high over the
southern plains keep the summer time pattern going through mid
August in above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 220 PM Friday...

Brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in showers and thunderstorms mainly
From HTS/CRW/BKW line and south. As a cold front pushes through
the area and exits south of the area this evening. MVFR/IFR/LIFR
cigs/vsbys are expected in fog and stratus after 04Z tonight and
dissipate after sunrise Saturday, especially in areas where it
rained.

VFR conditions are expected everywhere in the late morning hours
and for the rest of the forecast period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development and coverage of fog could
vary overnight tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in valley fog Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JS/26
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
323 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-100730-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
323 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
318 PM EDT FRI AUG 09 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     HAIL             3 NW LOGAN              37.87N  82.02W
08/09/2019  E1.00 INCH       LOGAN              WV   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901889

JSH

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