Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
248 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front exits south later this evening. High pressure this
weekend. Another front Tuesday, lingering through late
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As 205 PM Friday...

Cold front from NE WV down to SW VA will continue to move
southward and exits later this evening. Any showers or
thunderstorms will exit with it. Plenty of dry air will filter
in from north to south overnight. This will cool temperatures
down to forecast dewpoints and expect areas of fog to form
during the early morning hours of Saturday.

Fog should dissipate after sunrise, but areas that saw rain
this afternoon and evening could see fog linger a little longer.

High pressure will continue to build in behind the front tonight
and continue through the weekend. Providing sunny and pleasant
weather for Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 PM Friday...

The change in airmass will have a relatively short lifespan as
weak high pressure settles into the central Appalachians. It
will drop the dewpoints low enough for the temperatures to dip
into the upper 50s Saturday night, particularly across the
northern zones. A few waves running through the northwest flow
aloft will lack the moisture need to spark any sort of
convection, so the forecast remains dry in the short term.
Temperatures push back into the upper 80s for the lowlands from
airmass modification. Will see some increases in the column RH
Monday across the west ahead of the next frontal system for the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 PM Friday...

Should expect the lower level flows to increase in response to a
deepening low pressure system heading into the southern Great
Lakes Monday night. This is going to end up another case where
there likely is not enough amplification in the 500mb flow to
get a clean push of the front through the CWA Tuesday. Expect
the front to stall out over the southern mountains with
recurring chances for storms from the time of arrival early
Tuesday morning into the Thursday time frame. Temperatures
remain on the warm side with some very slight modification once
the front finally clears the region. Upper level high over the
southern plains keep the summer time pattern going through mid
August in above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 220 PM Friday...

Brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in showers and thunderstorms mainly
From HTS/CRW/BKW line and south. As a cold front pushes through
the area and exits south of the area this evening. MVFR/IFR/LIFR
cigs/vsbys are expected in fog and stratus after 04Z tonight and
dissipate after sunrise Saturday, especially in areas where it
rained.

VFR conditions are expected everywhere in the late morning hours
and for the rest of the forecast period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development and coverage of fog could
vary overnight tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in valley fog Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JS/26
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
323 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-100730-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
323 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1003 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE GLENVILLE          38.96N 80.79W
08/09/2019  M3.18 INCH       GILMER             WV   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            MEASURED AT DOH GARAGE. SOME REPORTS OF
            ROADS WASHED OUT AT TANNER AND SINKING CREEK
            OVERNIGHT AND DOH IS OUT LOOKING AT THOSE
            ROADS AT THIS TIME.

&&

ABE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
232 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

WVZ005-013-024-025-091900-
Lincoln-Logan-Wayne-Mingo-
232 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL MINGO...
SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN...NORTHWESTERN LOGAN AND SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE
COUNTIES...

At 231 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Kiahsville, or
16 miles southeast of Wayne, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chapmanville, Mount Gay-Shamrock, Harts, Dingess, Breeden and
Wilsondale.

This includes Route 119 between mile markers 30 and 40.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3814 8227 3799 8198 3799 8197 3797 8196
      3778 8217 3800 8241
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 309DEG 23KT 3803 8227

14

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
239 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

WVZ027-517>520-091915-
Southeast Nicholas-Clay-Southeast Fayette-Northwest
Nicholas-Northwest Fayette-
239 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NICHOLAS...SOUTHERN
CLAY AND NORTHERN FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 239 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Gauley Bridge,
or 11 miles north of Fayetteville, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Summersville, Ansted, Gauley Bridge, Hawks Nest State Park, Bentree,
Kesslers Cross Lanes, Canvas, Drennan, Swiss and Mount Nebo.

This includes Route 19 between mile markers 21 and 41.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3815 8126 3832 8120 3827 8075 3809 8083
      3810 8088 3808 8088 3808 8089 3806 8087
      3805 8084 3799 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 286DEG 22KT 3822 8114

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
244 PM EDT FRI AUG 09 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     HAIL             6 WNW SCARBRO           37.99N  81.27W
08/09/2019  E0.50 INCH       FAYETTE            WV   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901888

JSH