Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
235 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Wave moves across today with showers and storms, some heavy.
Unsettled weather continues through early Sunday. Drier and
warmer to start next week. Next system mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1140 AM Friday...

Previous forecast mostly on track. Still looking at wave of low
pressure currently over lower OH Valley region to move northeast
into the area later this afternoon and evening, with an increase
in shower and thunderstorm activity as it does so. Several
breaks in clouds, generally east of the Ohio River today, will
help to aid in destabilization across the area, and this with
approaching wave may lead to storms on the strong side. Greatest
threats will once again be strong wind gusts, and heavy
downpours. Isolated flooding is possible, but overall threat
looks to remain rather low, with generally dry conditions, and
good storm motion. However, depending on how much
coverage/amounts of precipitation occurs today, will determine
if threat is further enhanced on Saturday. At this time, WPC has
a slight risk for excessive rainfall across much of the CWA for
Saturday.

Overall, precipitation will taper off late tonight as the wave
moves off to the east, with a break expected until late Saturday
afternoon and evening, when another wave, and frontal boundary
will move through the area. Overall severe threat on Saturday
remains low, and is mainly to the east and south of the CWA.

Areas of fog look to be a possibility again tonight,
particularly in areas that realize breaks in the clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

The last of a series of shortwaves crosses through the region
Saturday night, departing to the southeast by midday Sunday,
along with its associated showers. This allows for high pressure
and ridging aloft to encroach over the Ohio River Valley region
through the remainder of the period. During this time, expect to
see temperatures rise back up to around normal for this time of
year under mostly clear skies and calm winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

The start of the long term remains fairly dry as high pressure
starts its eastward progression out of the region. By Tuesday,
the CWA will find itself within the warm sector of an
approaching disturbance, setting up another round of moisture
transport and warm air advection.

Clouds creep southward into the region by Wednesday ahead of
showers and thunderstorms in response to a shortwave
progressing overhead. These showers and storms will continue
once again Thursday before the system exits to the east by the
end of the work week. Afternoon highs are anticipated to remain
slightly above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Friday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms through 03Z, with brief
IFR/LIFR conditions, small hail, and gusty winds. After 03Z,
isold showers and thunderstorms will continue, mainly across
eastern WV, but bulk of activity will diminish. After 03Z,
expect widespread MVFR and local IFR stratus and fog. Some
general improvement to high MVFR/low VFR after 14Z Saturday,
however, showers and thunderstorms will begin to ramp back up
again towards the end of the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:  Timing of showers, storms, and associated
restrictions may vary today. Development and restrictions
associated with fog and/or stratus tonight may vary from
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in areas of showers and storms through Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SL/MEK
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...SL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
326 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

WVZ033-034-515-516-041930-
McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-
326 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 125 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast West
Virginia and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and early evening with large hail and strong wind gusts
being the main severe weather threats. Isolated flash flooding is
also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and early evening with large hail and strong wind gusts
being the main severe weather threats. Isolated flash flooding is
also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-004-041930-
Dickenson-Buchanan-
326 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and early evening with large hail and strong wind gusts
being the main severe weather threats. Isolated flash flooding is
also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and early evening with large hail and strong wind gusts
being the main severe weather threats. Isolated flash flooding is
also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ016>020-027>032-039-040-517>526-041930-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-
Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
326 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 125 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central West
Virginia, northeast West Virginia, northern West Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and early evening with large hail and strong wind gusts
being the main severe weather threats. Isolated flash flooding is
also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered flash flooding is possible Saturday with showers and
storms
late in the afternoon heading into the overnight hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>015-024>026-
041930-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Mingo-Logan-
Boone-
326 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northern West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and early evening with large hail and strong wind gusts
being the main severe weather threats. Isolated flash flooding is
also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered flash flooding is possible Saturday with showers and
storms
late in the afternoon heading into the overnight hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
321 PM EDT FRI MAY 03 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SISSONVILLE             38.50N  81.64W
05/03/2019                   KANAWHA            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ALONG POCA RIVER ROAD IN SISSONVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901535

SL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
322 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

WVZ026-034-515>518-031945-
Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Boone-Southeast
Fayette-Northwest Fayette-
322 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

...STRENGTHENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT RALEIGH...WYOMING...
SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE AND SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTIES...

At 321 PM EDT, thunderstorms were developing and strengthening across
southeast West Virginia, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Beckley, Fayetteville, Pineville, Oak Hill, Montgomery, Mullens,
Mount Hope, Mabscott, Oceana, Sophia, Smithers, Crab Orchard, Dry
Creek, Macarthur, Bradley, Shady Spring, Powellton, Beaver, Piney
View and Bald Knob.

This includes the following highways...
 West Virginia Turnpike between mile markers 34 and 67.
 Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 120 and 137.
 Route 19 between mile markers 1 and 15.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3749 8160 3752 8162 3751 8164 3752 8166
      3777 8171 3779 8161 3783 8166 3781 8171
      3795 8174 3807 8152 3807 8149 3803 8146
      3798 8146 3797 8144 3797 8138 3816 8134
      3819 8128 3778 8090 3748 8149
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 227DEG 25KT 3776 8146

HART

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
341 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

WVZ517>520-032030-
Southeast Nicholas-Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Northwest
Fayette-
341 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NICHOLAS AND NORTHERN FAYETTE
COUNTIES...

At 341 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Hawks Nest
State Park, or over Fayetteville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph and penny size hail are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Summersville, Fayetteville, Richwood, Ansted, Gauley Bridge, Hawks
Nest State Park, Craigsville, Canvas, Muddlety, Swiss, Nettie,
Calvin, Kesslers Cross Lanes, Drennan and Mount Nebo.

This includes Route 19 between mile markers 15 and 52.

LAT...LON 3808 8071 3810 8088 3808 8089 3806 8087
      3806 8080 3800 8111 3819 8129 3845 8083
      3820 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 240DEG 33KT 3809 8111

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 PM EDT FRI MAY 03 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     HAIL             SISSONVILLE             38.50N  81.64W
05/03/2019  E1.00 INCH       KANAWHA            WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901536

SL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
353 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

WVZ515>518-032030-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Southeast Fayette-Northwest
Fayette-
353 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL RALEIGH AND SOUTHEASTERN
FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 353 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Piney View, or
near Beckley, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph and nickel size hail are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Beckley, Rainelle, Babcock State Park, Oak Hill, Mount Hope,
Mabscott, Macarthur, Bradley, Prosperity, Beaver, Piney View,
Stanaford, Daniels, Meadow Bridge and Thurmond.

This includes the following highways...
 West Virginia Turnpike near mile marker 39, and between mile markers
41 and 53.
 Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 120 and 129.
 Route 19 between mile markers 1 and 11.

LAT...LON 3788 8130 3812 8090 3811 8088 3808 8089
      3806 8087 3805 8083 3806 8082 3806 8080
      3804 8083 3802 8080 3800 8079 3798 8077
      3795 8081 3787 8075 3787 8082 3782 8094
      3780 8093 3772 8119
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 240DEG 35KT 3785 8116

26

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