Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
235 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Wave moves across today with showers and storms, some heavy.
Unsettled weather continues through early Sunday. Drier and
warmer to start next week. Next system mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1140 AM Friday...

Previous forecast mostly on track. Still looking at wave of low
pressure currently over lower OH Valley region to move northeast
into the area later this afternoon and evening, with an increase
in shower and thunderstorm activity as it does so. Several
breaks in clouds, generally east of the Ohio River today, will
help to aid in destabilization across the area, and this with
approaching wave may lead to storms on the strong side. Greatest
threats will once again be strong wind gusts, and heavy
downpours. Isolated flooding is possible, but overall threat
looks to remain rather low, with generally dry conditions, and
good storm motion. However, depending on how much
coverage/amounts of precipitation occurs today, will determine
if threat is further enhanced on Saturday. At this time, WPC has
a slight risk for excessive rainfall across much of the CWA for
Saturday.

Overall, precipitation will taper off late tonight as the wave
moves off to the east, with a break expected until late Saturday
afternoon and evening, when another wave, and frontal boundary
will move through the area. Overall severe threat on Saturday
remains low, and is mainly to the east and south of the CWA.

Areas of fog look to be a possibility again tonight,
particularly in areas that realize breaks in the clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

The last of a series of shortwaves crosses through the region
Saturday night, departing to the southeast by midday Sunday,
along with its associated showers. This allows for high pressure
and ridging aloft to encroach over the Ohio River Valley region
through the remainder of the period. During this time, expect to
see temperatures rise back up to around normal for this time of
year under mostly clear skies and calm winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

The start of the long term remains fairly dry as high pressure
starts its eastward progression out of the region. By Tuesday,
the CWA will find itself within the warm sector of an
approaching disturbance, setting up another round of moisture
transport and warm air advection.

Clouds creep southward into the region by Wednesday ahead of
showers and thunderstorms in response to a shortwave
progressing overhead. These showers and storms will continue
once again Thursday before the system exits to the east by the
end of the work week. Afternoon highs are anticipated to remain
slightly above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Friday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms through 03Z, with brief
IFR/LIFR conditions, small hail, and gusty winds. After 03Z,
isold showers and thunderstorms will continue, mainly across
eastern WV, but bulk of activity will diminish. After 03Z,
expect widespread MVFR and local IFR stratus and fog. Some
general improvement to high MVFR/low VFR after 14Z Saturday,
however, showers and thunderstorms will begin to ramp back up
again towards the end of the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:  Timing of showers, storms, and associated
restrictions may vary today. Development and restrictions
associated with fog and/or stratus tonight may vary from
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in areas of showers and storms through Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SL/MEK
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...SL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
226 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

WVZ033-034-515-516-041830-
McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-
226 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 125 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast West
Virginia and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and early evening with large hail and strong wind gusts
being the main severe weather threats. Isolated flash flooding is
also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and early evening with large hail and strong wind gusts
being the main severe weather threats. Isolated flash flooding is
also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-004-041830-
Dickenson-Buchanan-
226 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and early evening with large hail and strong wind gusts
being the main severe weather threats. Isolated flash flooding is
also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and early evening with large hail and strong wind gusts
being the main severe weather threats. Isolated flash flooding is
also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ008-013>020-024>032-039-040-517>526-041830-
Jackson WV-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-
Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-
Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
226 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 125 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central West
Virginia, northeast West Virginia, northern West Virginia,
southeast West Virginia and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and early evening with large hail and strong wind gusts
being the main severe weather threats. Isolated flash flooding is
also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered flash flooding is possible Saturday with showers and
storms
late in the afternoon heading into the overnight hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>007-009>011-041830-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-Wood-
Pleasants-Tyler-
226 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of northern West Virginia and western West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and early evening with large hail and strong wind gusts
being the main severe weather threats. Isolated flash flooding is
also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered flash flooding is possible Saturday with showers and
storms
late in the afternoon heading into the overnight hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
212 PM EDT FRI MAY 03 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     HAIL             CULLODEN                38.42N  82.07W
05/03/2019  E1.50 INCH       CABELL             WV   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901531

ARB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
216 PM EDT FRI MAY 03 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 PM     HAIL             1 ESE CANDLEWYCK PLACE  38.45N  81.94W
05/03/2019  E1.00 INCH       PUTNAM             WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL CAUSED HOLES IN THE SIDING OF THE
            HOUSE AND TREES NEARBY TO SNAP. ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF
            60 MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901532

MEK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
218 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

WVZ015-016-027-031900-
Clay-Roane-Kanawha-
218 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL KANAWHA...
SOUTH CENTRAL ROANE AND WEST CENTRAL CLAY COUNTIES...

At 216 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were developing near Charleston,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail are possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Charleston, South Charleston, Chesapeake, Marmet, Belle, Clendenin,
Pinch, Coal Fork, Elkview and Glen.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 79 between mile markers 1 and 23.
 Interstate 77 in West Virginia between mile markers 96 and 104.
 Interstate 64 in West Virginia near mile marker 57.
 West Virginia Turnpike between mile markers 86 and 95.
 Route 119 between mile markers 77 and 80.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3817 8158 3833 8171 3860 8136 3840 8114
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 229DEG 19KT 3830 8158

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
237 PM EDT FRI MAY 03 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     HAIL             SISSONVILLE             38.50N  81.64W
05/03/2019  E1.50 INCH       KANAWHA            WV   SOCIAL MEDIA

            PICTURE SUBMITTED OF HAIL IN SISSONVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901533

HART

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

OHZ087-WVZ005>008-013>015-032015-
Lawrence-Jackson-Mason-Kanawha-Lincoln-Wayne-Cabell-Putnam-
248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

Localized high water issues, mainly due to poor drainage, are being
reported across the area this afternoon, as a result of heavy rains
from thunderstorms.

Drivers should use caution when traveling this afternoon, and avoid
driving into areas where water covers the roadway. Turn around don't
drown.

LAT...LON 3840 8253 3877 8171 3854 8146 3816 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 220DEG 49KT 3849 8207

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
305 PM EDT FRI MAY 03 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNE MILTON            38.46N  82.13W
05/03/2019                   CABELL             WV   SOCIAL MEDIA

            HIGH WATER REPORTED AT THE 1200 BLOCK OF GLENWOOD ROAD
            IN A POSSIBLE LOW DRAINAGE AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901534

MEK