Alert archive / North Carolina / Special Weather Statements in 2019

Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

May 13, 2019Chatham County, North Carolina

NWS Raleigh, NC issued this special weather statement at May 13, 2019, 12:21 PM EDT for Chatham County, North Carolina. It was in force for 54 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 13, 2019, 12:21 PM EDT (16:21 UTC)
Expired: May 13, 2019, 1:15 PM EDT
In force: 54 min
Issued by: NWS Raleigh, NC

County Chatham County, NC

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 4.4 hours before the alert went out and 74 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 76 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -62 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 899 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 63 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 93 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: -0.0
Supercell composite: -0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 13, 6:45 AM EDT, 5 hours 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 13, 6:45 AM EDT, 5 hours 36 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
645 AM EDT Mon May 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly drift east of the Appalachians overnight,
crossing central NC on Monday. Strong and persistent High pressure
will bring dry and seasonably cool weather Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

Latest surface analysis reveals a cold front draped west to east
just south of the VA/NC border, expected to continue descending
southward in backdoor type fashion through early this morning.
Behind this boundary, cooler northeasterly winds in continue to
allow a rather robust stratus deck to form and migrate southward,
with ceilings in the 200 to 400ft in nature prevalent. This boundary
is likely to continue descending southward through mid morning hours
before stalling across south-central NC, relying on the western
extent of the front (and true dewpoint boundary) to be propelled
eastward thanks to a strengthening shortwave trough currently
sliding southeast through the Ohio River Valley. This should provide
for a last ditch effort for an isolated shower or rumble of thunder
as the front slides through during the afternoon hours, with a CAA
regime gaining control gradually behind the boundary.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly below seasonable this
afternoon thanks to abundant cloud cover through peak heating and
the arrival of cooler northwesterly flow by sunset across the
northwest. Expect highs in the low to mid 70s (northwest) to low 80s
(southeast). Winds will be gusty at times, primarily in the
afternoon/early evening hours. Overnight lows will dip into the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

Continental polar high pressure filters in behind the front on
Tuesday, allowing for much cooler and drier air to filter into
central NC. This prolonged period of northerly/northwesterly flow
will greatly limit afternoon high temperature potential, keeping
daytime highs only in the upper-60s (northwest) to low 70s
(southeast), roughly 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
Precipitation chances will also remain near zero, thanks to
persistent subsidence, a strong CAA regime, and constant downsloping
conditions east of the Appalachians. Thus, other than a bit of upper-
level cloud litter, expect a return of spring-like conditions
including mostly clear skies, cool temperatures, and a light breeze
across the region. Lows Tuesday night will dip into the mid to upper
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 320 AM Monday...

...Dry and Tranquil Weather Expected This Week...
...Summer-like Temperatures Return For The Weekend...

Positioned in the deep NWLY flow between the upper ridge across the
central US and the closed low and corresponding upper trough
lingering over the NE US, dry tranquil weather is expected through
the remainder of the week. A series of shortwaves diving SE down the
back-side of the eastern US trough will attempt to push a pair of
weak back-door cold fronts into the area late week. Given the lack
of significant moisture transport and appreciable support/forcing
aloft, getting measurable precip/convection into the area will prove
difficult. Thus will keep the forecast dry.

Unseasonably cool below normal temps associated with the negative H5
anomalies to start the week will moderate to near normal by the end
of the work week and then well above normal with most areas warming
into the upper 80s/near 90 over the weekend as the upper level ridge
builds into the area from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 645 AM Monday...

24 hour TAF period: Shower coverage continues to intermittent at
best across much of central North Carolina early this morning,
leaving only intermittent sprinkles and lowering CIGs/VSBYs across
the central terminals. Ceilings will rise quickly after sunrise,
leaving primarily VFR conditions across central NC by 15z/11am.
Can't rule out an isolated shower/storm Monday afternoon as a cold
front slides west to east, but coverage remains too low to include
in the TAF at this time. High pressure filters into the region by
00z/8pm monday, helping to retain predominant VFR parameters, even
into the overnight hours Tuesday.

Looking ahead: Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the
remainder of the period as high pressure remains firmly in control.
The one exception may be some lowering CIGs/VSBYs prior to dawn
each morning late in the work week as boundary layer moisture
increases ahead of a dry passing shortwave on Thursday. Only minor
and short-lived impacts likely.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJM
NEAR TERM...JJM
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...JJM

Hazardous weather outlook, May 13, 10:52 AM EDT, 1 hour 29 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1052 AM EDT Mon May 13 2019

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086-088-089-141500-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-
Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery-
Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
1052 AM EDT Mon May 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in heavy downpours,
gusty winds, and lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-078-141500-
Halifax-Nash-Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-
1052 AM EDT Mon May 13 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 166 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 13, 11:17 AM EDT, 1 hour 4 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1117 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2019

NCZ027-028-042-043-131615-
Edgecombe NC-Nash NC-Johnston NC-Wilson NC-
1117 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NASH...SOUTHWESTERN
EDGECOMBE...WILSON AND NORTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM
EDT...

At 1116 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bailey, or 18 miles north of Smithfield, moving east at 45 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wilson, Elm City, Bailey, Pinetops, Lucama, Middlesex, Stantonsburg,
Black Creek, Macclesfield and Saratoga.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, and other light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 7752 3559 7779 3569 7835 3577 7834
      3582 7826 3584 7824 3586 7748
TIME...MOT...LOC 1516Z 271DEG 37KT 3575 7823

WSS

Local storm report, May 13, 11:18 AM EDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1118 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 AM     HAIL             WENDELL                 35.79N 78.37W
05/13/2019  E0.25 INCH       WAKE               NC   PUBLIC

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS PEA SIZED HAIL
            OCCURRING AT WENDELL BLVD AND MARSHBURN
            ROAD/ WAKE COUNTY.

&&

TDH

Local storm report, May 13, 11:22 AM EDT, 59 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1122 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE PILOT             35.84N 78.24W
05/13/2019                   NASH               NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. SOME STRUCTURES DAMAGED
            IN THE BRANTLEY RD. AREA.

&&

TC

Local storm report, May 13, 11:39 AM EDT, 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1139 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     HAIL             2 W WENDELL             35.78N 78.40W
05/13/2019  E0.75 INCH       WAKE               NC   PUBLIC

&&

TC

Local storm report, May 13, 11:58 AM EDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1158 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     HAIL             2 NW WILSON             35.76N 77.95W
05/13/2019  E0.25 INCH       WILSON             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 1/4 INCH SIZED HAIL
            AT BUCKINGHAM ROAD IN WILSON.

&&

TDH

Special weather statement, May 13, 12:21 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1221 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2019

NCZ039-040-076-131715-
Lee NC-Chatham NC-Randolph NC-
1221 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH...NORTHERN
LEE AND CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EDT...

At 1221 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Siler City, moving east at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sanford, Pittsboro, Siler City, Goldston, Crosswinds Boating Center,
Crosswinds Campground, Harpers Crossroads, Jordan Lake State Rec
Area, Bynum and Seaforth Boat Dock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans and other light outdoor objects.

Dont wait until you see the first lightning flash before heading to
safety. Move indoors at the first sign of threatening skies or the
first sound of thunder. Deadly lightning strikes can occur well ahead
of an approaching storm, prior to the arrival of rain and wind. Make
sure that lightning is well away from your location before resuming
outdoor activity.

&&

LAT...LON 3584 7897 3548 7901 3554 7962 3573 7964
TIME...MOT...LOC 1621Z 264DEG 34KT 3565 7954

WSS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 12, 8:20 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Guilford	55 min
May 12, 9:15 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Davidson	60 min
May 12, 9:32 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Davidson, Forsyth, Guilford	43 min
May 13, 9:37 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Wake	53 min
May 13, 9:43 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Durham, Franklin, Wake	47 min
May 13, 9:57 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Alamance, Chatham, Durham, Orange, Wake	48 min
May 13, 10:13 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	RAH	Franklin, Nash, Wake	32 min
May 13, 10:22 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	RAH	Johnston, Nash, Wilson	21 min
May 13, 10:35 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Johnston, Wake	40 min
May 13, 10:46 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Edgecombe, Nash	59 min
May 13, 11:17 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Wilson	58 min
May 13, 11:31 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Edgecombe, Nash, Wilson	44 min
May 13, 12:51 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Chatham, Harnett, Lee, Wake	39 min
May 13, 1:26 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Johnston, Wake	49 min
May 13, 1:55 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	RAH	Johnston, Wayne, Wilson	35 min
May 13, 2:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Wayne, Wilson	18 min
May 13, 2:36 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	RAH	Wayne, Wilson	9 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Carolina, 2019 Every special weather statement in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.