Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Raleigh, NC

307 
WWUS52 KRAH 082137
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
537 PM EDT MON APR 8 2019

NCC063-135-082200-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190408T2200Z/
Orange NC-Durham NC-
537 PM EDT MON APR 8 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR ORANGE AND NORTHWESTERN DURHAM COUNTIES...

At 537 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Hillsborough,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Durham, Chapel Hill, Hillsborough, Carrboro, Efland, Eno River State
Park, Gorman, Cane Creek Reservoir, Schley and Lake Jordan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Raleigh.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3614 7880 3609 7881 3609 7879 3607 7878
      3607 7877 3586 7902 3586 7908 3588 7925
      3596 7927 3601 7926 3624 7915
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 217DEG 39KT 3607 7899 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Ellis

008 
WWUS52 KRAH 082151
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
551 PM EDT MON APR 8 2019

NCC063-135-082201-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190408T2200Z/
Orange NC-Durham NC-
551 PM EDT MON APR 8 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ORANGE AND NORTHWESTERN DURHAM
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 600 PM EDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds and heavy rain are still
possible with this thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central North Carolina.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Raleigh.

LAT...LON 3614 7880 3609 7881 3609 7879 3607 7878
      3607 7877 3586 7902 3586 7908 3588 7925
      3596 7927 3601 7926 3624 7915
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 217DEG 37KT 3618 7889 

$$

Ellis

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
400 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
The approach of an upper level disturbance, interacting with a moist
and unstable atmosphere, will support the development of numerous
showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening. A
few of the storms may be severe. This storm system will allow for
another round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday before exiting
the region Tuesday night. Dry and seasonal weather is expected for
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 PM Monday...

19Z meso analysis depicts a slightly unstable air mass over central
NC with bulk shear strong enough to aid in organizing the cells into
broken convective bands. The atmosphere ahead of the developing
convective bands will continue to destabilize further as
temperatures climb to or above 80 degrees. As the storms move into
this favorable air mass, expect further intensification with a few
storms becoming severe. A pocket of dry air in the 700-500mb layer
will lend toward evaporation, enhancing downdrafts and leading to
locally strong/damaging wind gusts. In addition, updrafts able to
persist 20-30 minutes will have the potential to produce large hail.
This hail threat currently appears highest over portions of the
northern Piedmont. Through 21Z, expect to see the storms to
eventually evolve into broken bands with a threat for damaging wind
gusts. These band of convection will approach the highway corridor
including the Triangle region in the 22Z-00Z time frame. After 00Z,
expect the convective threat to increase along the I-95 corridor,
though by this time, the near surface atmosphere will begin to
stabilize with loss of heating.

Expect scattered-numerous showers to persist into the overnight as a
series of mid level perturbations move east across eastern GA and
South Carolina. While overall coverage will be decent, intensity
should be waning as the atmosphere stabilizes. Relatively mild night
with overnight temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM Monday...

Tuesday, the upper level low currently crossing the lower MS Valley
will open up and lift newd, in response to a s/w in the northern
stream crossing the Great Lakes and into New England. This s/w will
propel a sfc cold front toward central NC from the NW. The approach
of the upper wave will increase upper diffluence over central NC.
Meanwhile west-southwest 850mb flow will maintain a warm and moist
air mass. The approach of the cold front will enhance low level
convergence Tuesday afternoon through early Tuesday evening. GFS
based instability parameters suggest MLCAPE values on the order of
1500-2000 J/kg by early Tuesday afternoon with bulk shear values of
40-50kts. These parameters suggest a better potential for storms
with supercellular characteristics; though will caution that morning
stratus/low clouds and scattered showers may temper the instability,
leading to a less than robust atmosphere for scattered strong/severe
convection. Still with better low level shear and a few sfc
boundaries likely lurking in the region, could see a weak tornado or
two in the afternoon, mainly south of highway 64.

Atmosphere will be fairly uniform temperature wise thanks to the
considerable cloudiness and scattered-numerous showers. Expect highs
generally in the mid-upper 70s.

The sfc cold front will drift sewd tuesday evening, bringing an end
to the scattered convection NW-SE. NW flow behind the front will
usher a stable drier air mass, leading to decreasing cloud cover
overnight. Min temps lower 50s NW to the mid-upper 50s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 155 PM Monday...

Overview: High amplitude ridging aloft will take over for the early
part of the period before reverting back to large scale troughing by
the weekend. By Wednesday morning, a backdoor cold front will
continue its journey south through central NC, reinforced by
strengthening surface high pressure descending briefly down the lee
side of the Appalachians. Northerly/northeasterly flow will linger
into Thursday before giving way to a dynamic WAA regime Thursday
night into Friday just ahead of a Cold Front passage Friday night.
High pressure returns briefly on saturday, with CAD like conditions
strengthening Saturday night and Sunday as a southern stream
disturbance begins to track northeastward into the mid Atlantic
region Sunday and Monday.

Wednesday and Thursday: High pressure settles in from the north
Wednesday afternoon as a weak backdoor cold front descends
southward. Weak northerly/northeasterly flow will help to limit
afternoon high temperatures Wednesday and potentially into Thursday
before southerly flow truly re-establishes in a strong WAA regime,
allowing for some rapid warm-sector recovery east of the
Appalachians. Highs will top out in the low to mid 70s Wednesday and
Thursday with overnight lows dipping into the 40s.

Friday/Friday Night: A shortwave will round the base of the northern
Jet late Thursday into Friday spreading low to mid level vort maxes
east through the Mid Atlantic. Best forcing looks to remain well
north of our area, but with robust southerly flow helping to
maximize the WAA regime in a mid-Spring type environment, it would
be irresponsible to not at least carry mention of convection/thunder
with the passage of the cold front, likely to spread WNW to ESE
through the region Friday afternoon/evening.

Rest of the period: Surface high pressure settles in from the
northwest on Saturday before a CAD type setup commences on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the southern stream becomes a bit more active, with broad
scale troughing beginning the early stages of cyclogenesis over the
MS River Delta late Saturday, transitioning energy northeastward
into the Mid Atlantic by early next week. Will be keeping a close
eye on the progression of this system as it could mark the next
opportunity for widespread convection along with isolated Severe
Weather as early as Sunday evening, highly dependent on the CAD
dynamics in place. Check back for frequent updates here.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 PM Monday...

Expect variable aviation parameters across central NC as the weather
pattern will be unsettled through Tuesday evening. Periods of
showers and thunderstorms will cross the region late this afternoon,
persisting into the first half of the overnight. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms will threaten the region late Tuesday
morning through Tuesday evening. In vicinity of the heavier showers
and storms, anticipate MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities along with
sfc wind gusts 30-40kts. In proximity of the stronger t-storms, some
hail may be encountered.  After 04Z Tuesday, areas of low stratus
may develop with ceilings IFR/LIFR probable. These low ceilings
expected to gradually lift Tuesday morning, followed by another
round of showers and t-storms with MVFR/IFR parameters likely.

Another round of low ceilings or areas of fog are possible late
Tuesday evening prior to the arrival of a drier air mass which will
overspread central NC from the west late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. VFR parameters appear likely Wednesday into Thursday.
Another round of scattered convection with associated sub VFR
parameters expected Friday into Friday evening. VFR parameters
should return for Saturday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS/Haines
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...WSS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
243 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2019

NCZ007>010-021>026-091000-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-
Durham-Franklin-
243 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 45 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon through this evening.

NCZ042-043-078-088-089-091000-
Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-Cumberland-Sampson-
243 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible this
evening with the main severe weather threat being locally damaging
winds and hail up to the size of the quarters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday. the
main severe weather threats will be large hail, locally damaging
wind gusts, and an isolated weak tornado. The severe weather threat
appears greatest between 12 PM and 9 PM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon through this
evening, and again Tuesday afternoon.

NCZ038>041-073>077-083>086-091000-
Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-
Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
243 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 45 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday. the
main severe weather threats will be large hail, locally damaging
wind gusts, and an isolated weak tornado. The severe weather threat
appears greatest between 12 PM and 9 PM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through 10 PM, and again Tuesday
afternoon through early evening.

NCZ011-027-028-091000-
Halifax-Nash-Edgecombe-
243 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible this
evening. The main severe weather threat will be large hail and
locally damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
421 PM EDT MON APR 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 ESE COLFAX            36.10N 79.93W
04/08/2019  M46 MPH          GUILFORD           NC   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            PTI AIRPORT MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 46 MPH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
430 PM EDT MON APR 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             2 NNE PINEBLUFF         35.13N 79.46W
04/08/2019  E0.75 INCH       MOORE              NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF PENNY SIZE HAIL NEAR
            INTERSECTION OF ROSELAND ROAD AND SAND PIT
            ROAD.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
434 PM EDT MON APR 8 2019

NCZ073>075-083-084-082130-
Stanly NC-Anson NC-Richmond NC-Moore NC-Montgomery NC-
434 PM EDT MON APR 8 2019

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN
MOORE...ANSON...MONTGOMERY...RICHMOND AND STANLY COUNTIES UNTIL 530
PM EDT...

At 434 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of showers and
strong thunderstorms near Midland, or 14 miles south of Downtown
Concord, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Albemarle, Rockingham, Wadesboro, Troy, Badin Lake, Hamlet, Biscoe,
Ansonville, Hoffman and Plyler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3552 7935 3551 7934 3512 7957
      3507 7958 3504 7946 3499 7957 3494 7959
      3491 7956 3485 7963 3482 7962 3481 8032
      3519 8028 3516 8044 3519 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 223DEG 25KT 3520 8056

Ellis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
505 PM EDT MON APR 8 2019

NCZ008>010-024>026-040>042-076-077-082230-
Lee NC-Johnston NC-Chatham NC-Franklin NC-Vance NC-Durham NC-
Harnett NC-Wake NC-Warren NC-Granville NC-Orange NC-
505 PM EDT MON APR 8 2019

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE TRIANGLE AREA THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 500 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cary, moving northeast at 35 mph. Other strong storms were moving
through Chatham County, and will move from Person County into
Granville and Vance Counties.

Dime to penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible
with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Chapel Hill, Sanford, Henderson, Oxford,
Creedmoor, Pittsboro and Wake Forest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down large tree limbs and blowing
around trash cans, and other light outdoor objects.

If on or near Jordan Lake, Lake Gaston or Kerr Lake, get out of the
water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can
strike out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to
safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
most of central North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3544 7863 3553 7926 3607 7897 3607 7882
      3654 7855 3654 7823
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 230DEG 31KT 3580 7886

WSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
511 PM EDT MON APR 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE ABERDEEN          35.12N 79.42W
04/08/2019                   MOORE              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ALONG PEE DEE ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
514 PM EDT MON APR 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S PINEVIEW            35.23N 79.10W
04/08/2019                   HARNETT            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            THUNDERSTORM WINDS DOWNED SEVERAL TREES
            ALONG MARKS ROAD.

&&

JJM