Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will overtake a preceding composite outflow boundary
and pre-frontal trough over central and western NC, and subsequently
move southeastward across central and eastern NC through this
evening. Following, cooler and drier air will accompany high
pressure that will build across the ern US through the rest of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1130 AM Tuesday...

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for a portion of the NC northeast
Piedmont and northern and central Coastal Plain, effective through
11 PM.

A positive tilt synoptic trough from srn Quebec to the lwr MS
Valley this morning will pivot sewd and into the cntl Appalachians
vicinity by 12Z Wed, with preceding 20-30 meter mid level height
falls over cntl NC throughout the period. Downstream of that trough,
a pair of convectively-enhanced vorticity maxima will track newd and
across the srn middle Atlantic states today, the lead of which has
migrated into cntl VA and is likely providing peripheral forcing for
ascent for the deepening convection over nrn and nern NC. A trailing
one over the NC Blue Ridge will track across the nwrn and nrn NC
Piedmont through 00Z, with preceding focused forcing for ascent that
will help organize a QLCS across cntl NC this afternoon.

At the surface, a synoptic front was analyzed at 16Z from near ORF
wswwd to just south of TDF and INT in cntl NC, then swwd to just
west of AVL and across nrn GA and cntl AL. Immediately preceding
that front, an outflow boundary from overnight-early morning
convection was mixing out with the erosion of MVFR ceilings and
retreating nwd across n-cntl NC late this morning; and the two
boundaries will likely merge over the nrn Piedmont during the next
hour or two. The front will continue generally sewd across cntl NC
through this evening, and offshore overnight.

While it appears damaging wind will still pose the greatest severe
risk this afternoon, particularly with respect to areas affected,
observational data increasingly supports the signal in past days of
model guidance for the development of a LEWP/mesolow (where the
foregoing boundary is intersected by a more ne to sw-oriented
convective line expected to develop ahead of the vort max initially
over the NC Blue Ridge) and progress through cntl-ern NC through
this evening. Such boundary intersection may be accompanied by an HP
supercell or meso-gamma scale bow (with nrn/cyclonic bookend vortex)
that may form and present an isolated tornado risk across the n-cntl
Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain. Effective SRH is forecast to
increase to around 200 m2/s2 in that corridor, locally
maximized/higher along and on the immediate cool side of the east to
west-oriented portion of the foregoing boundary merger, and
reinforced by trailing stratiform precipitation.

Otherwise, training convection with high precipitation rates, amidst
deep moisture characterized by precipitable water values of around
two inches, and unseasonably strong synoptic forcing for ascent,
will present a risk of flash flooding primarily over the nrn NC
Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain, and on a more localized basis
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...

The unseasonably strong upper trough over the Eastern US will bring
a welcome break from the persistent heat and high humidity that has
dominated in recent weeks. The upper trough will pick up TD#3 late
tonight and Wednesday keep it east and offshore.  At the surface, a
~1022 mb cell of high pressure centered over the Mid MS Valley will
strengthen as it builds east into the region. The resultant
northerly low-level flow will support below normal temps to close
for mid the late week period. Highs in the lower to mid 80s along
with ultra comfortable dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s. Lows in
the 60s with some upper 50s in the typically cooler locations across
the NC Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 645 AM Tuesday...

Eastern US trough will weaken through the weekend with subtropical
ridging attempting to build west across the Deep South.
Within the lingering weakness over the SE US, the GFS is most
excited in lifting a couple of upper level disturbances north along
the SE US Coast, which could bring a chance of some light precip
chances to the far SE zones. But for now, will leave the forecast
dry. Central NC looks to remain under the influence of weak sfc high
so expect gradual dry conditions  with gradual moderation to
seasonable temps and humidity levels.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

Widespread MVFR and IFR conditions are overspreading central NC from
west to east as rain and thunderstorms move across the region
associated with a cold front.  While conditions at KFAY are
currently VFR, flight conditions will deteriorate there as well as
the afternoon progresses and the storms move east. The rain will
gradually shift east and end from west to east...ending at KINT/KGSO
by 23/22z; ending at KRDU by 24/03z; and ending at KRWI/KFAY by
24/06Z.   However, even after the rain ends, near-sfc saturation
from recent rains along with diminishing wind may promote some low
cigs and possibly some fog formation overnight, thus will keep
vis/cigs IFR overnight.  After 24/13Z...look for improving
conditions with lifts vis/cigs, becoming VFR for the rest of the TAF
period.

Outlook: High pressure will build across the middle Atlantic states
and provide for mainly dry, VFR conditions through the rest of the
week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ007>011-
024>028-041>043-078.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...np

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
148 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

NCZ011-024>028-041>043-078-241800-
Halifax-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-
Wayne-
148 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 540 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ040-073>077-083>086-088-089-241800-
Chatham-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-
Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
148 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 540 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ021>023-038-241800-
Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Davidson-
148 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>010-241800-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-
148 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ039-241800-
Randolph-
148 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Training showers and thunderstorms may result in localized flooding
through 5 PM EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1246 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

NCZ042-043-078-231730-
Johnston NC-Wayne NC-Wilson NC-
1246 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WAYNE...EASTERN
WILSON AND EAST CENTRAL JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

At 1246 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fremont, or 7 miles north of Goldsboro, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Goldsboro, Wilson, Fremont, Princeton, Lucama, Stantonsburg, Black
Creek, Pikeville, Saratoga and Eureka.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 7782 3543 7783 3533 7809 3548 7821
      3584 7777 3582 7775 3573 7772 3568 7766
TIME...MOT...LOC 1646Z 237DEG 30KT 3549 7801

22

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
128 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

NCZ040-074>077-086-231845-
Lee NC-Chatham NC-Hoke NC-Harnett NC-Moore NC-Montgomery NC-
128 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOORE...WESTERN
HARNETT...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...LEE...NORTH CENTRAL HOKE AND
SOUTHERN CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 127 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 11 miles southeast of
Seagrove to 8 miles south of Biscoe. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Heavy rain and minor flooding will also be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sanford, Southern Pines, Lillington, Carthage, Pinehurst, Biscoe,
Whispering Pines, Broadway, Robbins and Foxfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 7966 3551 7956 3555 7955 3562 7912
      3553 7875 3541 7878 3520 7905 3519 7909
      3517 7910 3516 7965 3518 7968 3517 7979
      3518 7985 3516 7991
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 264DEG 31KT 3547 7960 3523 7978

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
139 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1254 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W PLEASANT GARDEN     35.95N 79.85W
07/23/2019                   GUILFORD           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT BURNETTS CHAPEL RD AND DRAKE
            RD.

&&

JFD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
145 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

NCZ040-041-076-077-231845-
Lee NC-Chatham NC-Harnett NC-Wake NC-
145 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL HARNETT...NORTHERN
LEE...SOUTHWESTERN WAKE AND CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 145 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Goldston, or 11 miles northwest of Sanford, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Cary, Sanford, Pittsboro, Fuquay-Varina, Goldston, Apex,
Holly Springs, Morrisville and Seaforth Boat Dock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3586 7873 3554 7868 3553 7870 3546 7935
      3548 7936 3550 7934 3552 7935 3552 7939
      3567 7948 3586 7905
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 250DEG 36KT 3559 7932

BLAES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
158 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1254 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N GREENSBORO          36.11N 79.82W
07/23/2019                   GUILFORD           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            DEBRIS IN ROAD AND TREE LIMBS DOWN AT
            LAWNDALE DR AND WINGATE ST IN GREENSBORO.

&&

JFD

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