River Flood Warning 9, NWS Raleigh, NC

850 
WGUS82 KRAH 240836
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
336 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Tar River At Louisburg affecting Franklin County

  Tar River At Tarboro affecting Edgecombe County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC069-242035-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0009.190224T1339Z-190226T0824Z/
/LOUN7.1.ER.190224T1339Z.190225T0600Z.190225T2024Z.NO/
336 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for the Tar River At Louisburg.
* from this morning to late Monday evening, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 3:16 AM Sunday the stage was 19.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will rise above flood stage by Sunday morning 
  and continue to rise to near 21.5 feet by after midnight 
  Monday morning. The river will fall below flood stage by Monday 
  afternoon.
* At 22.0 feet, Moderate flood stage. Flooding begins in 
  Pruitt and Shannon Villages on the east side of town.
* At 20.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Banks overflow at Main 
  Street. River Bend Park is flooded and storm drains are inundated 
  along the river.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Tar River
  Louisburg   20  19.1 Sun 03 AM    19.8  21.2  16.7  12.7  10.2


&&

LAT...LON 3616 7835 3611 7828 3595 7818 3590 7820
          3606 7830 3613 7838         

$$

NCC065-242035-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0010.190224T1931Z-000000T0000Z/
/TARN7.1.ER.190224T1931Z.190228T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
336 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for the Tar River At Tarboro.
* from this afternoon until further notice, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 3:15 AM Sunday the stage was 18.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will rise above flood stage by Sunday afternoon 
  and continue to rise to near 23.4 feet by Wednesday evening.
* At 24.0 feet, Moderate flooding begins in Tarboro. River 
  Road is underwater and flooding begins on east Wilson and St David 
  Streets.
* At 20.0 feet, Lowland flooding begins south of Daniel 
  Street in east Tarboro.
* At 19.0 feet, Minor flooding begins. The Riverside Park and
  River Road at the US64 bridge flood.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Tar River
  Tarboro     19  18.1 Sun 03 AM    18.4  20.5  22.6  23.3  23.3


&&

LAT...LON 3597 7760 3593 7748 3577 7751 3573 7757
          3590 7756 3593 7761         

$$

711 
WGUS82 KRAH 241413
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
912 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Tar River At Louisburg affecting Franklin County
  Tar River At Tarboro affecting Edgecombe County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC069-250211-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190226T0625Z/
/LOUN7.1.ER.190224T1451Z.190225T0600Z.190225T1825Z.NO/
912 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for the Tar River At Louisburg.
* At  9:01 AM Sunday the stage was 19.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will rise above flood stage by late this 
  morning and continue to rise to near 21.4 feet by after midnight 
  tomorrow.The river will fall below flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon.
* At 23.0 feet, Major flood stage. Homes and businesses along
  Johnson Street flood. 
* At 22.0 feet, Moderate flood stage. Flooding begins in 
  Pruitt and Shannon Villages on the east side of town.
* At 20.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Banks overflow at Main 
  Street. River Bend Park is flooded and storm drains are inundated 
  along the river.
* At 18.0 feet, Bankfull in the vicinity of Main Street. 
  Minor flooding begins in River Bend Park 0.1 miles upstream of Main
  Street.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Tar River
 Louisburg        20  19.9 Sun 09 AM  21.0  15.4  11.6   9.8   8.4


&&

LAT...LON 3616 7835 3611 7828 3595 7818 3590 7820
          3606 7830 3613 7838         

$$

NCC065-250211-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0010.190224T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/TARN7.1.ER.190224T1800Z.190228T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
912 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for the Tar River At Tarboro.
* from this afternoon until further notice, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  8:15 AM Sunday the stage was 18.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will rise above flood stage by this afternoon 
  and continue to rise to near 23.7 feet by Thursday early afternoon.
* At 24.0 feet, Moderate flooding begins in Tarboro. River 
  Road is underwater and flooding begins on east Wilson and St David Streets.
* At 20.0 feet, Lowland flooding begins south of Daniel Street in east Tarboro.
* At 19.0 feet, Minor flooding begins. The Riverside Park and
  River Road at the US64 bridge flood.
* At 17.0 feet, Action stage. The river is bankfull.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Tar River
 Tarboro          19  18.4 Sun 08 AM  20.6  22.7  23.4  23.7  23.5


&&

LAT...LON 3597 7760 3593 7748 3577 7751 3573 7757
          3590 7756 3593 7761         

$$

582 
WGUS82 KRAH 250138
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
838 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Fishing Creek At Enfield affecting Edgecombe...Halifax and Nash 
  Counties

  Tar River At Louisburg affecting Franklin County

  Tar River At Tarboro affecting Edgecombe County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC069-251338-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190226T1000Z/
/LOUN7.1.ER.190224T1438Z.190225T0600Z.190225T2200Z.NO/
838 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tar River At Louisburg.
* At 8:31 PM Sunday the stage was 21.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 21.4 feet by 
  after midnight tonight. The river will fall below flood stage 
  tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Banks overflow at Main 
  Street. River Bend Park is flooded and storm drains are inundated 
  along the river.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, Bankfull in the vicinity of Main Street. 
  Minor flooding begins in River Bend Park 0.1 miles upstream of Main
  Street.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Tar River
  Louisburg   20  21.2 Sun 08 PM    21.3  17.4  13.0  10.0   8.4


&&

LAT...LON 3616 7835 3611 7828 3595 7818 3590 7820
          3606 7830 3613 7838         

$$

NCC065-251338-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/TARN7.2.ER.190224T2056Z.190228T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
838 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tar River At Tarboro.
* At 8:15 PM Sunday the stage was 19.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 25.7 feet by 
  Thursday afternoon, and then begin falling.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, Moderate flooding begins in Tarboro. River 
  Road is underwater and flooding begins on east Wilson and St David 
  Streets.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Lowland flooding begins south of Daniel 
  Street in east Tarboro.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, Minor flooding begins. The Riverside Park and
  River Road at the US64 bridge flood.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Action stage. The river is bankfull.


&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Tar River
  Tarboro     19  19.4 Sun 08 PM    20.8  23.6  24.6  25.5  25.5


&&

LAT...LON 3597 7760 3593 7748 3577 7751 3573 7757
          3590 7756 3593 7761         

$$

NCC065-083-127-251338-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190228T1400Z/
/EFDN7.1.ER.190224T1237Z.190225T1200Z.190228T0200Z.NO/
838 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Fishing Creek At Enfield.
* At 8:15 PM Sunday the stage was 16.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 17.0 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Wednesday before midnight.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Fishing Creek
  Enfield     16  16.8 Sun 08 PM    17.0  16.9  16.5  15.5  12.8


&&

LAT...LON 3617 7781 3616 7766 3608 7749 3603 7754
          3610 7767 3611 7783         

$$

266 
WGUS82 KRAH 251112
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
612 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Tar River At Louisburg affecting Franklin County

  Tar River At Tarboro affecting Edgecombe County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC069-252312-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190226T1000Z/
/LOUN7.1.ER.190224T1438Z.190225T0731Z.190225T2200Z.NO/
612 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tar River At Louisburg.
* At  5:45 AM Monday the stage was 21.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  late this afternoon.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Banks overflow at Main 
  Street. River Bend Park is flooded and storm drains are inundated 
  along the river.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   

Tar River
  Louisburg   20  21.4 Mon 06 AM    21.3  17.4  13.0  10.0   8.4


&&

LAT...LON 3616 7835 3611 7828 3595 7818 3590 7820
          3606 7830 3613 7838         

$$

NCC065-252312-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/TARN7.2.ER.190224T2056Z.190228T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
612 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tar River At Tarboro.
* At  5:15 AM Monday the stage was 20.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 25.7 feet by 
  Thursday evening, and then begin falling.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Lowland flooding begins south of Daniel 
  Street in east Tarboro.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, Minor flooding begins. The Riverside Park and
  River Road at the US64 bridge flood.
*


&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri  

Tar River
  Tarboro     19  20.3 Mon 05 AM    20.8  23.6  24.6  25.5  25.5


&&

LAT...LON 3597 7760 3593 7748 3577 7751 3573 7757
          3590 7756 3593 7761         

$$

066 
WGUS82 KRAH 251514
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
1014 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Tar River At Louisburg affecting Franklin County

  Yadkin River At Yadkin College affecting Davidson and Davie Counties

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Neuse River At Smithfield affecting Johnston County

  Tar River At Tarboro affecting Edgecombe County

  Lower Roanoke River At Roanoke Rapids affecting Halifax and 
  Northampton Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC069-260314-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190226T1012Z/
/LOUN7.1.ER.190224T1438Z.190225T0731Z.190225T2212Z.NO/
1014 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for the Tar River At Louisburg.
* At  9:45 AM Monday the stage was 21.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  late this afternoon.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, water is overflowing the bank at Main 
  Street. River Bend Park is flooded and storm drains are inundated 
  along the river.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Tar River
 Louisburg        20  21.2 Mon 10 AM  16.8  12.2   9.7   8.4   7.5

&&

LAT...LON 3616 7835 3611 7828 3595 7818 3590 7820
          3606 7830 3613 7838         

$$

NCC065-260314-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/TARN7.2.ER.190224T2056Z.190228T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1014 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for the Tar River At Tarboro.
* At  9:15 AM Monday the stage was 20.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 26.3 feet by 
  Thursday evening, and then begin falling.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, Moderate flooding begins in Tarboro. River 
  Road is underwater and flooding begins on east Wilson and St David 
  Streets.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Lowland flooding begins south of Daniel 
  Street in east Tarboro. At 19.0 feet, The Riverside Park and
  River Road at the US64 bridge flood.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Tar River
 Tarboro          19  20.7 Mon 09 AM  23.4  25.1  26.2  26.0  23.7

&&

LAT...LON 3597 7760 3593 7748 3577 7751 3573 7757
          3590 7756 3593 7761         

$$

NCC101-260314-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SMFN7.2.ER.190222T1630Z.190225T0830Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1014 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for the Neuse River At Smithfield.
* At  9:15 AM Monday the stage was 17.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 15.8 feet 
  by tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, The Smithfield town park and the Neuse 
  riverwalk at the US70 bridge are flooded.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, Water nears the base of the holding tank 
  at the water treatment plant.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Neuse River
 Smithfield       15  17.9 Mon 09 AM  15.8  16.0  16.0  15.9  15.6

&&

LAT...LON 3554 7829 3548 7834 3544 7829 3541 7833
          3547 7842 3556 7835         

$$

NCC083-131-260314-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/RRDN7.1.ER.190223T2100Z.190225T1445Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1014 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for the Lower Roanoke River At Roanoke 
  Rapids.
* At  9:45 AM Monday the stage was 9.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will remain near 9.0 feet.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Farmlands and timberlands adjacent to the 
  river in Roanoke Rapids flood.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Roanoke River
 Roanoke Rapids    9   9.1 Mon 10 AM   8.9   8.9   9.0   9.0   9.0

&&

LAT...LON 3652 7765 3641 7751 3635 7750 3628 7759
          3638 7761 3645 7765         

$$

NCC057-059-260314-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-190226T0928Z/
/YADN7.1.ER.190224T0540Z.190225T0230Z.190225T2128Z.NO/
1014 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for the Yadkin River At Yadkin College.
* At  9:47 AM Monday the stage was 20.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  late this afternoon.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, Minor flooding of mainly farmlands on both 
  banks.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Yadkin River
 Yadkin College   18  20.0 Mon 10 AM  13.5   8.9   7.6   6.6   6.4

&&

LAT...LON 3597 8031 3577 8040 3574 8036 3568 8046
          3575 8054 3598 8045         

$$

242 
WGUS82 KRAH 260156
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
856 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Tar River At Louisburg affecting Franklin County


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC069-260226-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190226T1012Z/
/LOUN7.1.ER.190224T1438Z.190225T0731Z.190226T0049Z.NO/
856 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Tar River At Louisburg.
* At 8:31 PM Monday the stage was 19.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at 7:49 PM Monday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 12.4 feet by 
  Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, Bankfull in the vicinity of Main Street. 
  Minor flooding begins in River Bend Park 0.1 miles upstream of Main
  Street.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Tar River
  Louisburg   20  19.9 Mon 09 PM    17.5  12.4   9.3   8.3   7.5


&&

LAT...LON 3616 7835 3611 7828 3595 7818 3590 7820
          3606 7830 3613 7838         

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
335 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge southward and result in continued
Appalachian cold air damming across the middle Atlantic states
through Sunday morning. A cold front will cross the
region Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

Classical cold air damming regime firmly established across central
NC this afternoon and will persist into the evening. Mid afternoon
analysis depict the sfc ridge extending SW-NE across the Piedmont,
originating from a parent high (~1030mb) offshore of southern New
England. Aloft, sly flow in the 925-850mb layer continued to pull
warm moist air over the cool stable air at the surface. Decent speed
convergence noted at 850mb with 10kts at GSO and 40kts at
FFC/Atlanta per 12Z upper air analysis. This sly flow veers to a
swly direction later this afternoon and this evening. This action
should push the axis of persistent rainfall over the northern
Piedmont a bit farther north into southern VA by this evening, and
more so overnight. Thus, we should experience a relative lull in the
precip over the northern Piedmont/northern Coastal Plain, aside from
areas of drizzle.

Later this evening and into the overnight, warmer air immediately
above the surface will spread nwd. This warmer air above the cool
surface should promote the development of fog, some of which will be
dense. Model guidance has shifted gears a bit and now suggest the
Piedmont and Sandhills as the favorable region for dense fog, and
less so across the Coastal Plain. Still, expect at least pockets of
dense fog in vicinity of the I-95 corridor. Confidence not quite high
enough to issue a dense fog advisory, though one will likely be
needed later tonight. Evening temperatures will generally hold
steady near 40 north to the low-mid 40s south. After midnight,
temperatures will slowly rise across the far south as the warmer air
slowly makes inroads into our region. By daybreak, expect
temperatures to vary from around 40 NW Piedmont to the upper 40s-
lower 50s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

Sunday, a strong cold front associated with a deep low lifting
northeast across the Great Lakes, will sweep across central NC
Sunday morning, exiting our region by early afternoon. Convergence
along this feature will support a band of moderate-heavy showers
ahead of the front. While kinematics are impressive with bulk shear
around 60kts, the lower levels of the atmosphere appear too stable
to support deep convection, so not expecting any thunder with this
system at this time. Still, the heavier showers able to obtain some
depth will aid to translate some of the strong winds aloft to the
surface. Wind gusts 40-50 mph are a possibility with some of the
heavier showers.

Behind the sfc front, blustery west-northwest winds will usher a
drier air mass into the region. This drier air coupled with
subsidence behind the exiting frontal system should dissipate cloud
cover west-to-east immediately behind the front. The insolation and
the tight pressure gradient associated with the deep low to our NW
will cause west-northwest sfc winds 15-20 mph with frequent gusts 30-
40 mph. Sporadic wind gusts 45 to 50 mph not out of the question
across the northern Piedmont. A wind advisory may be needed in later
forecast issuance. Warmer air over the region Sunday, thanks to the
deep wly flow, will permit temperatures to soar into the 70s across
most of the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Elsewhere, residual effects
of the CAD may temper the warm up a bit, yielding temperatures
generally in the mid-upper 60s.

Cooler air will overspread central NC Sunday night. Under clear
skies and steady west-NW wind, expect overnight temperatures in the
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 PM Saturday...

Monday through Tuesday night: Surface high pressure will build into
and through the region behind the front through Tuesday, with dry,
seasonable conditions expected through Tuesday night. The surface
high pushes offshore late Tuesday/Tuesday night. Generally expect
temperatures to moderate through this time frame with highs in the
mid 50s to mid 60s and lows in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

Wednesday through Friday: Forecast confidence for Wednesday onward
is quite low at this time. Though the medium-range models show
similar upper level patterns, the GFS is much wetter than the ECMWF.
In fact, the EC keeps most of the area dry through the end of the
work week. Expect a series of weak but amplifying shortwaves to pass
through the region. The surface high over the Atlantic will allow
southeasterly return flow to advect moisture into the region. This
supports increasing chances for rain, primarily across the south, on
Wednesday should the shortwaves provide enough forcing to generate
precipitation. Several weak surface lows will develop in response to
the shortwaves aloft, but where, when and how strong they will be is
still in question. The other difference between the GFS and ECMWF is
in regard to the surface boundary location with respect to central
NC. The EC keeps high pressure wedged into the area through Friday
while the GFS keeps central NC in the warm sector Wednesday and
Thursday, with the wedge building into the area on Friday. These
differences are the reason for the low confidence forecast but the
trend is for a possible return to wet weather by the end of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 105 PM Saturday...

Adverse aviation conditions expected to persist across central NC
through 12Z Sunday. Widespread IFR/low end MVFR ceilings will occur
this afternoon with widespread IFR/LIFR expected tonight. Rain will
occur through 22Z across the northern half of the forecast area,
affecting flight operations at KINT, KGSO, KRDU, and KRWI. In
vicinity of KFAY, just spotty light rain expected though
visibilities will be restricted in the MFR/IFR categories due to
fog.

After 05Z, just spotty light rain/drizzle expected across the region
though IFR/LIFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibilities will persist. A
strengthening low level jet will induce low level wind shear
conditions across the region with wind speeds 35-45kts expected at
1500 ft AGL. These wind shear conditions expected to abate after 14Z
Sunday as the stronger winds aloft begin to mix to the surface.

A strong cold front will cross central NC Sunday morning through
early afternoon. SW winds ahead of the front may gusts around 40kts
over portions of the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Behind the front,
west-northwest winds expected to gusts 35-40kts. Along the front,
expect a band of heavy showers, producing visibilities at or below 2
miles and wind gusts around 40kts.

Strong subsidence coupled with a downslope component to the low
level wind will aid to dissipate the cloud coverage, with mostly
clear/partly cloudy skies expected areawide by early-mid afternoon.

VFR parameters expected Sunday afternoon through mid week. There is
potential for sub VFR parameters due to ceilings toward the later
half of the work week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
750 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

NCZ009>011-026>028-042-043-073>078-083>086-088-089-250100-
Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-
Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
Cumberland-Sampson-
750 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Areas of fog tonight will become dense at times through Sunday
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Areas of dense fog will disperse through mid to late morning Sunday. Windy
conditions will follow, with wind gusts between 35 and 40 mph likely
through early Sunday evening. Locally stronger wind gusts between 40
and 50 mph may occur in a broken line of fast-moving showers that
will cross the area from midday to mid afternoon Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007-008-021>025-038>041-250100-
Person-Granville-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-
Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
750 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Areas of fog tonight will become dense at times through Sunday
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Areas of dense fog will disperse through mid to late morning Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.