Alert archive / North Carolina / River Flood Warnings in 2019

River Flood Warning 13, NWS Raleigh, NC

February 24, 2019Edgecombe County, Halifax County, Nash County, North Carolina

NWS Raleigh, NC issued this river flood warning at Feb 24, 2019, 4:53 AM EST for Edgecombe County, Halifax County, Nash County, North Carolina. It took effect at Feb 24, 2019, 7:00 AM EST. It was in force for 4 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 24, 2019, 4:53 AM EST (09:53 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 24, 2019, 7:00 AM EST
Expired
Feb 28, 2019, 6:02 AM EST
In force
4 days
Issued by
NWS Raleigh, NC
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Edgecombe County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Nash County, NC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Fishing Creek near Enfield (EFDN7).

Action stage
15 ft
Minor stage
16 ft
Moderate stage
18 ft
Major stage
20 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02083000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

376 
WGUS42 KRAH 240953
FLWRAH


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
453 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019



...The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a
Flood Warning for the following rivers in North Carolina...

  Fishing Creek At Enfield affecting Edgecombe...Halifax and Nash 
  Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC065-083-127-242153-
/O.NEW.KRAH.FL.W.0013.190224T1200Z-190227T1000Z/
/EFDN7.1.ER.190224T1200Z.190225T1200Z.190226T2200Z.NO/
453 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a 

* Flood Warning for Fishing Creek At Enfield.
* until late Tuesday night, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 4:00 AM Sunday the stage was 15.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is expected to rise above flood stage by this 
  morning and continue to rise to near 16.8 feet by tomorrow early 
  afternoon.The river will fall below flood stage by Tuesday 
  afternoon.
* At 16.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 8 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 8 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Fishing Creek
 Enfield          16  15.7 Sun 04 AM  16.8  16.4  15.2  12.2   9.5   


&&

LAT...LON 3617 7781 3616 7766 3608 7749 3603 7754
          3610 7767 3611 7783         

$$
15 follow-up statements
416 
WGUS82 KRAH 241351
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
851 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Fishing Creek At Enfield affecting Edgecombe...Halifax and Nash 
  Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC065-083-127-250150-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190227T0300Z/
/EFDN7.1.ER.190224T1237Z.190225T0600Z.190226T1500Z.NO/
851 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for the Fishing Creek At Enfield.
* At 8:45 AM Sunday the stage was 16.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will continue rising to near 16.5 feet by tomorrow morning. 
  The river will fall below flood stage late Tuesday morning.
* At 16.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Fishing Creek
 Enfield          16  16.1 Sun 09 AM  16.5  16.1  14.9  11.7   9.3


&&

LAT...LON 3617 7781 3616 7766 3608 7749 3603 7754
          3610 7767 3611 7783         

$$
582 
WGUS82 KRAH 250138
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
838 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Fishing Creek At Enfield affecting Edgecombe...Halifax and Nash 
  Counties

  Tar River At Louisburg affecting Franklin County

  Tar River At Tarboro affecting Edgecombe County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC069-251338-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190226T1000Z/
/LOUN7.1.ER.190224T1438Z.190225T0600Z.190225T2200Z.NO/
838 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tar River At Louisburg.
* At 8:31 PM Sunday the stage was 21.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 21.4 feet by 
  after midnight tonight. The river will fall below flood stage 
  tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Banks overflow at Main 
  Street. River Bend Park is flooded and storm drains are inundated 
  along the river.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, Bankfull in the vicinity of Main Street. 
  Minor flooding begins in River Bend Park 0.1 miles upstream of Main
  Street.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Tar River
  Louisburg   20  21.2 Sun 08 PM    21.3  17.4  13.0  10.0   8.4


&&

LAT...LON 3616 7835 3611 7828 3595 7818 3590 7820
          3606 7830 3613 7838         

$$

NCC065-251338-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/TARN7.2.ER.190224T2056Z.190228T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
838 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tar River At Tarboro.
* At 8:15 PM Sunday the stage was 19.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 25.7 feet by 
  Thursday afternoon, and then begin falling.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, Moderate flooding begins in Tarboro. River 
  Road is underwater and flooding begins on east Wilson and St David 
  Streets.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Lowland flooding begins south of Daniel 
  Street in east Tarboro.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, Minor flooding begins. The Riverside Park and
  River Road at the US64 bridge flood.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Action stage. The river is bankfull.


&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Tar River
  Tarboro     19  19.4 Sun 08 PM    20.8  23.6  24.6  25.5  25.5


&&

LAT...LON 3597 7760 3593 7748 3577 7751 3573 7757
          3590 7756 3593 7761         

$$

NCC065-083-127-251338-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190228T1400Z/
/EFDN7.1.ER.190224T1237Z.190225T1200Z.190228T0200Z.NO/
838 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Fishing Creek At Enfield.
* At 8:15 PM Sunday the stage was 16.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 17.0 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Wednesday before midnight.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Fishing Creek
  Enfield     16  16.8 Sun 08 PM    17.0  16.9  16.5  15.5  12.8


&&

LAT...LON 3617 7781 3616 7766 3608 7749 3603 7754
          3610 7767 3611 7783         

$$
241 
WGUS82 KRAH 251105
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
605 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Fishing Creek At Enfield affecting Edgecombe...Halifax and Nash 
  Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC065-083-127-252305-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190228T1400Z/
/EFDN7.1.ER.190224T1237Z.190225T1200Z.190228T0200Z.NO/
605 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Fishing Creek At Enfield.
* At  5:45 AM Monday the stage was 17.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 17.0 feet by this
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage by late Wednesday
  evening.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri  

Fishing Creek
  Enfield     16  17.0 Mon 06 AM    17.0  16.9  16.5  15.5  12.8


&&

LAT...LON 3617 7781 3616 7766 3608 7749 3603 7754
          3610 7767 3611 7783         

$$
512 
WGUS82 KRAH 251509
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
1009 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Fishing Creek At Enfield affecting Edgecombe...Halifax and Nash 
  Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC065-083-127-260308-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190228T1400Z/
/EFDN7.1.ER.190224T1237Z.190225T1800Z.190228T0200Z.NO/
1009 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for the Fishing Creek At Enfield.
* At 10:00 AM Monday the stage was 17.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 17.0 feet by this
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Wednesday before 
  midnight.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Fishing Creek
 Enfield          16  17.0 Mon 10 AM  16.9  16.4  15.5  12.8   9.8

&&

LAT...LON 3617 7781 3616 7766 3608 7749 3603 7754
          3610 7767 3611 7783         

$$
090 
WGUS82 KRAH 260203
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
902 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Fishing Creek At Enfield affecting Edgecombe...Halifax and Nash 
  Counties

  Tar River At Tarboro affecting Edgecombe County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC065-261401-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/TARN7.2.ER.190224T2056Z.190301T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
902 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tar River At Tarboro.
* At 8:15 PM Monday the stage was 21.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 26.4 feet by 
  Thursday evening, and then begin falling.
* Impact...At 26.6 feet, This is the stage reached during hurricane 
  Fran on September 15, 1996.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, Moderate flooding begins in Tarboro. River 
  Road is underwater and flooding begins on east Wilson and St David 
  Streets.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Lowland flooding begins south of Daniel 
  Street in east Tarboro.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, Minor flooding begins. The Riverside Park and
  River Road at the US64 bridge flood.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Action stage. The river is bankfull.


&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Tar River
  Tarboro     19  21.7 Mon 08 PM    22.9  24.8  26.2  26.2  24.1


&&

LAT...LON 3597 7760 3593 7748 3577 7751 3573 7757
          3590 7756 3593 7761         

$$

NCC065-083-127-261401-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190228T1400Z/
/EFDN7.1.ER.190224T1237Z.190226T0145Z.190228T0200Z.NO/
902 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Fishing Creek At Enfield.
* At 8:45 PM Monday the stage was 17.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood 
  stage by Wednesday before midnight.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Fishing Creek
  Enfield     16  17.0 Mon 09 PM    16.9  16.5  15.5  12.8   9.8


&&

LAT...LON 3617 7781 3616 7766 3608 7749 3603 7754
          3610 7767 3611 7783         

$$
325 
WGUS82 KRAH 261137
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
637 AM EST Tue Feb 26 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Fishing Creek At Enfield affecting Edgecombe...Halifax and Nash 
  Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC065-083-127-262336-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190228T1400Z/
/EFDN7.1.ER.190224T1237Z.190226T1800Z.190228T0200Z.NO/
637 AM EST Tue Feb 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Fishing Creek At Enfield.
* At  6:15 AM Tuesday the stage was 17.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 17.2 feet by 
  this afternoon, and then begin falling.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat  

Fishing Creek
  Enfield     16  17.1 Tue 06 AM    17.2  16.6  15.5  12.8   9.8


&&

LAT...LON 3617 7781 3616 7766 3608 7749 3603 7754
          3610 7767 3611 7783         

$$
914 
WGUS82 KRAH 261340
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
840 AM EST Tue Feb 26 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Fishing Creek At Enfield affecting Edgecombe...Halifax and Nash 
  Counties

  Tar River At Tarboro affecting Edgecombe County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC065-270140-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/TARN7.2.ER.190224T2056Z.190301T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
840 AM EST Tue Feb 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tar River At Tarboro.
* At  8:15 AM Tuesday the stage was 22.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 26.3 feet by 
  Friday early afternoon, and then begin falling.
* Impact...At 26.6 feet, This is the stage reached during hurricane 
  Fran on September 15, 1996.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, Moderate flooding begins in Tarboro. River 
  Road is underwater and flooding begins on east Wilson and St David 
  Streets.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Lowland flooding begins south of Daniel 
  Street in east Tarboro.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, Minor flooding begins. The Riverside Park and
  River Road at the US64 bridge flood.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Action stage. The river is bankfull.


&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

Tar River
 Tarboro          19  22.7 Tue 08 AM  24.2  25.6  26.2  25.4  20.7


&&

LAT...LON 3597 7760 3593 7748 3577 7751 3573 7757
          3590 7756 3593 7761         

$$

NCC065-083-127-270140-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190301T0900Z/
/EFDN7.1.ER.190224T1237Z.190227T0000Z.190228T2100Z.NO/
840 AM EST Tue Feb 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Fishing Creek At Enfield.
* At  8:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 17.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 17.4 feet by 
  after midnight tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Thursday afternoon.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

Fishing Creek
 Enfield          16  17.2 Tue 08 AM  17.3  16.6  14.9  11.5   9.4


&&

LAT...LON 3617 7781 3616 7766 3608 7749 3603 7754
          3610 7767 3611 7783         

$$
696 
WGUS82 KRAH 270128
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
828 PM EST Tue Feb 26 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Fishing Creek At Enfield affecting Edgecombe...Halifax and Nash 
  Counties

  Tar River At Tarboro affecting Edgecombe County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC065-271328-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-190304T0936Z/
/TARN7.2.ER.190224T2056Z.190301T1200Z.190303T2136Z.NO/
828 PM EST Tue Feb 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tar River At Tarboro.
* At 7:15 PM Tuesday the stage was 23.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 26.7 feet by 
  Friday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 26.6 feet, This is the stage reached during hurricane 
  Fran on September 15, 1996.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, Moderate flooding begins in Tarboro. River 
  Road is underwater and flooding begins on east Wilson and St David 
  Streets.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Lowland flooding begins south of Daniel 
  Street in east Tarboro.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, Minor flooding begins. The Riverside Park and
  River Road at the US64 bridge flood.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Action stage. The river is bankfull.


&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

Tar River
  Tarboro     19  23.4 Tue 07 PM    24.0  25.7  26.7  25.7  20.8


&&

LAT...LON 3597 7760 3593 7748 3577 7751 3573 7757
          3590 7756 3593 7761         

$$

NCC065-083-127-271328-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190301T0600Z/
/EFDN7.1.ER.190224T1237Z.190227T0600Z.190228T1800Z.NO/
828 PM EST Tue Feb 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Fishing Creek At Enfield.
* At 8:15 PM Tuesday the stage was 17.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
  Forecast...The river will begin falling to below flood stage 
  by Thursday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

Fishing Creek
  Enfield     16  17.3 Tue 08 PM    17.2  16.4  14.9  12.4  11.0


&&

LAT...LON 3617 7781 3616 7766 3608 7749 3603 7754
          3610 7767 3611 7783         

$$
816 
WGUS82 KRAH 270850
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
350 AM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Fishing Creek At Enfield affecting Edgecombe...Halifax and Nash 
  Counties

  Tar River At Tarboro affecting Edgecombe County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC065-272050-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-190304T0936Z/
/TARN7.2.ER.190224T2056Z.190301T1200Z.190303T2136Z.NO/
350 AM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tar River At Tarboro.
* At 3:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 23.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 26.7 feet by 
  Friday morning. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Sunday afternoon.
* Impact...At 26.6 feet, This is the stage reached during hurricane 
  Fran on September 15, 1996.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, Moderate flooding begins in Tarboro. River 
  Road is underwater and flooding begins on east Wilson and St David 
  Streets.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Lowland flooding begins south of Daniel 
  Street in east Tarboro.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, Minor flooding begins. The Riverside Park and
  River Road at the US64 bridge flood.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Action stage. The river is bankfull.


&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Tar River
  Tarboro     19  23.8 Wed 03 AM    24.0  25.7  26.7  25.7  20.8


&&

LAT...LON 3597 7760 3593 7748 3577 7751 3573 7757
          3590 7756 3593 7761         

$$

NCC065-083-127-272050-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190301T0600Z/
/EFDN7.1.ER.190224T1237Z.190227T0200Z.190228T1800Z.NO/
350 AM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Fishing Creek At Enfield.
* At 3:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 17.15 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
  Forecast...the river will drop below flood stage early Thursday  
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Fishing Creek
  Enfield     16  17.1 Wed 03 AM    17.2  16.4  14.9  12.4  11.0


&&

LAT...LON 3617 7781 3616 7766 3608 7749 3603 7754
          3610 7767 3611 7783         

$$
211 
WGUS82 KRAH 270857
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
357 AM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Fishing Creek At Enfield affecting Edgecombe...Halifax and Nash 
  Counties

  Tar River At Tarboro affecting Edgecombe County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC065-272057-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-190304T0936Z/
/TARN7.2.ER.190224T2056Z.190301T1200Z.190303T2136Z.NO/
357 AM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tar River At Tarboro.
* At 3:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 23.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 26.7 feet by 
  Friday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 26.6 feet, This is the stage reached during hurricane 
  Fran on September 15, 1996.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, Moderate flooding begins in Tarboro. River 
  Road is underwater and flooding begins on east Wilson and St David 
  Streets.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Lowland flooding begins south of Daniel 
  Street in east Tarboro.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, Minor flooding begins. The Riverside Park and
  River Road at the US64 bridge flood.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Action stage. The river is bankfull.


&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Wed  Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

Tar River
  Tarboro     19  23.8 Wed 03 AM    24.0  25.7  26.7  25.7  20.8


&&

LAT...LON 3597 7760 3593 7748 3577 7751 3573 7757
          3590 7756 3593 7761         

$$

NCC065-083-127-272057-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190301T0600Z/
/EFDN7.1.ER.190224T1237Z.190227T0200Z.190228T1800Z.NO/
357 AM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Fishing Creek At Enfield.
* At 3:45 AM Wednesday the stage was 17.15 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
  Forecast...the river will drop below flood stage early Thursday 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Wed  Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun  

Fishing Creek
  Enfield     16  17.1 Wed 04 AM    17.2  16.4  14.9  12.4  11.0


&&

LAT...LON 3617 7781 3616 7766 3608 7749 3603 7754
          3610 7767 3611 7783         

$$
373 
WGUS82 KRAH 271332
FLSRAH
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
832 AM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Fishing Creek At Enfield affecting Edgecombe...Halifax and Nash 
  Counties

  Neuse River Near Goldsboro affecting Wayne County

  Tar River At Tarboro affecting Edgecombe County

  Neuse River At Smithfield affecting Johnston County

  Lower Roanoke River At Roanoke Rapids affecting Halifax and 
  Northampton Counties

  Lower Roanoke River Near Scotland Neck affecting Halifax and 
  Northampton Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC065-280131-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-190304T1108Z/
/TARN7.2.ER.190224T2056Z.190301T1200Z.190303T2308Z.NO/
832 AM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tar River At Tarboro.
* At 7:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 24.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 26.7 feet by 
  Friday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 26.6 feet, This is the stage reached during hurricane 
  Fran on September 15, 1996.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, Moderate flooding begins in Tarboro. River 
  Road is underwater and flooding begins on east Wilson and St David 
  Streets.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Lowland flooding begins south of Daniel 
  Street in east Tarboro.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, Minor flooding begins. The Riverside Park and
  River Road at the US64 bridge flood.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Action stage. The river is bankfull.


&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Tar River
 Tarboro          19  24.0 Wed 07 AM  25.6  26.7  25.5  20.6  17.8


&&

LAT...LON 3597 7760 3593 7748 3577 7751 3573 7757
          3590 7756 3593 7761         

$$

NCC065-083-127-280131-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190301T0430Z/
/EFDN7.1.ER.190224T1237Z.190227T0200Z.190228T1630Z.NO/
832 AM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Fishing Creek At Enfield.
* At 8:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 17.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow late morning.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Fishing Creek
 Enfield          16  17.0 Wed 08 AM  16.3  14.6  12.6  11.7  11.3


&&

LAT...LON 3617 7781 3616 7766 3608 7749 3603 7754
          3610 7767 3611 7783         

$$

NCC101-280131-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SMFN7.2.ER.190222T1630Z.190225T0830Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
832 AM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River At Smithfield.
* At 7:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 15.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 17.6 feet by 
  early Sunday morning, and then begin falling.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, Moderate flood stage. The Smithfield town 
  park and the Neuse riverwalk at the US70 bridge are flooded.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Flooding begins along the 
  Neuse riverwalk. Water nears the base of the holding tank at the 
  water treatment plant.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Neuse River
 Smithfield       15  15.8 Wed 07 AM  16.2  16.6  17.3  17.5  17.2


&&

LAT...LON 3554 7829 3548 7834 3544 7829 3541 7833
          3547 7842 3556 7835         

$$

NCC191-280131-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0014.190227T1800Z-190303T1800Z/
/GLDN7.1.ER.190227T1800Z.190301T1800Z.190303T0600Z.NO/
832 AM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River Near Goldsboro.
* from Friday afternoon to Sunday afternoon, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 7:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 17.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by this afternoon 
  and continue to rise to near 18.9 feet by Friday early 
  afternoon.The river will fall below flood stage by early Sunday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Arrington Bridge Road and access roads around
  Seymour Johnson Air Force Base flood.
* Impact...At 19.5 feet, Ferry Bridge Road begins to flood.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Water overflows the banks 
  at the SR1915 bridge and upstream of the US117 bridge.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Neuse River
 Goldsboro        18  17.8 Wed 07 AM  18.5  18.8  18.6  17.9  17.6


&&

LAT...LON 3538 7807 3533 7793 3528 7791 3525 7795
          3530 7797 3534 7810         

$$

NCC083-131-280131-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/RRDN7.1.ER.190223T2100Z.190227T1230Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
832 AM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Lower Roanoke River At Roanoke Rapids.
* At 7:45 AM Wednesday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will remain near 10.9 feet.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Farmlands and timberlands 
  adjacent to the river in Roanoke Rapids flood.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Roanoke River
 Roanoke Rapids    9  10.9 Wed 08 AM  10.8  10.9  10.9  10.9  10.9


&&

LAT...LON 3652 7765 3641 7751 3635 7750 3628 7759
          3638 7761 3645 7765         

$$

NCC083-131-280131-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SCON7.1.ER.190227T1614Z.190302T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
832 AM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Lower Roanoke River Near Scotland Neck.
* At 8:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 27.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by late this 
  morning and continue to rise to near 30.0 feet by early Monday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 32.0 feet, The boat ramp and parking lot at Edwards 
  Ferry Boat Access are inundated.
* Impact...At 31.0 feet, There is widespread flooding on the left 
  banks.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, Minor flooding begins, especially on the left
  bank.


&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Roanoke River
 Scotland Neck    28  27.6 Wed 08 AM  29.2  29.8  30.0  30.0  30.0


&&

LAT...LON 3635 7750 3633 7742 3611 7721 3608 7727
          3628 7748 3628 7759         

$$
580 
WGUS82 KRAH 272104
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
404 PM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Fishing Creek At Enfield affecting Edgecombe...Halifax and Nash 
  Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC065-083-127-280903-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190301T0430Z/
/EFDN7.1.ER.190224T1237Z.190227T0200Z.190228T1630Z.NO/
404 PM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

The Flood Warning continues for the Fishing Creek At Enfield.
* At  3:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 16.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* At 16.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Fishing Creek
 Enfield          16  16.6 Wed 04 PM  16.3  14.6  12.6  11.7  11.3


&&

LAT...LON 3617 7781 3616 7766 3608 7749 3603 7754
          3610 7767 3611 7783         

$$
423 
WGUS82 KRAH 280206
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
906 PM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Fishing Creek At Enfield affecting Edgecombe...Halifax and Nash 
  Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC065-083-127-281405-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190228T1800Z/
/EFDN7.1.ER.190224T1237Z.190227T0200Z.190228T0600Z.NO/
906 PM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

The Flood Warning continues for the Fishing Creek At Enfield.
* At  8:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 16.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  after midnight tomorrow.
* At 16.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Fishing Creek
 Enfield          16  16.3 Wed 09 PM  13.7  12.2  11.6  11.3      


&&

LAT...LON 3617 7781 3616 7766 3608 7749 3603 7754
          3610 7767 3611 7783         

$$
952 
WGUS82 KRAH 280213
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
913 PM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Fishing Creek At Enfield affecting Edgecombe...Halifax and Nash 
  Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC065-083-127-281413-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190228T1800Z/
/EFDN7.1.ER.190224T1237Z.190227T0200Z.190228T0600Z.NO/
913 PM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

The Flood Warning continues for the Fishing Creek At Enfield.
* At  9:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 16.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  after midnight tomorrow.
* At 16.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Fishing Creek
  Enfield     16  16.3 Wed 09 PM    15.6  13.7  12.2  11.6  11.3


&&

LAT...LON 3617 7781 3616 7766 3608 7749 3603 7754
          3610 7767 3611 7783         

$$
530 
WGUS82 KRAH 281102
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
602 AM EST Thu Feb 28 2019

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Fishing Creek At Enfield affecting Edgecombe...Halifax and Nash 
  Counties


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC065-083-127-281132-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190228T1800Z/
/EFDN7.1.ER.190224T1237Z.190227T0200Z.190228T0450Z.NO/
602 AM EST Thu Feb 28 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Fishing Creek At Enfield.
* At  5:00 AM Thursday the stage was 15.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at 11:50 PM Wednesday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 13.4 feet by tomorrow
  morning.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon 

Fishing Creek
  Enfield     16  15.3 Thu 05 AM    15.1  13.4  12.2  11.6  11.3


&&

LAT...LON 3617 7781 3616 7766 3608 7749 3603 7754
          3610 7767 3611 7783         

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Feb 24, 4:18 AM EST, 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 24, 4:18 AM EST, 35 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
418 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will retreat briefly into central NC through early this
afternoon, ahead of a pair of cold fronts that will cross the region
late this afternoon and evening. Seasonable high pressure will
follow and extend east across the Carolinas through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 415 AM Sunday...

Wind Advisory has been expanded ewd to include the remainder of
the ne Piedmont, and the nrn Coastal Plain.

Forecast soundings on the GFS and NAM indicate gusts of 35 to
45 kts possible (via momentum transfer) at KRDU and KGSO. Even
the blended guidance is indicating gusts of 35 to 40 kts. The
above is further supported by a strong pressure gradient (or
isallobaric wind) with strong CAA.

Previous discussion...Sunday, a strong cold front associated with a
deep low lifting northeast across the Great Lakes, will sweep across
central NC Sunday morning, exiting our region by early afternoon.
Convergence along this feature will support a band of moderate-heavy
showers ahead of the front. While kinematics are impressive with
bulk shear around 60kts, the lower levels of the atmosphere appear
too stable to support deep convection, so not expecting any thunder
with this system at this time. Still, the heavier showers able to
obtain some depth will aid to translate some of the strong winds
aloft to the surface. Wind gusts 40-50 mph are a possibility with
some of the heavier showers.

Behind the sfc front, blustery west-northwest winds will usher a
drier air mass into the region. This drier air coupled with
subsidence behind the exiting frontal system should dissipate cloud
cover west-to-east immediately behind the front. The insolation and
the tight pressure gradient associated with the deep low to our NW
will cause west-northwest sfc winds 15-20 mph with frequent gusts 30-
40 mph. Sporadic wind gusts 45 to 50 mph not out of the question
across the northern Piedmont. A wind advisory may be needed in later
forecast issuance. Warmer air over the region Sunday, thanks to the
deep wly flow, will permit temperatures to soar into the 70s across
most of the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Elsewhere, residual effects
of the CAD may temper the warm up a bit, yielding temperatures
generally in the mid-upper 60s.

Cooler air will overspread central NC Sunday night. Under clear
skies and steady west-NW wind, expect overnight temperatures in the
30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...

Seasonable and mild high pressure will build from TX this
morning ewd across the Carolinas through Mon night. Aside from
mostly thin cirrus, aside from some that may become locally
more opaque over the far nwrn/nrn Piedmont owing to orographic
influences early Mon, considerably more sun and stars will
prevail relative to previous days. Temperatures are expected to
range from middle 50s to lwr 60s on Mon, with an occasionally
breezy nwly wind through early afternoon. Calm and excellent
radaitional cooling mostly into the lwr to middle 30s will
follow for Mon night, with a scattering of upr 20s at the
typically colder Piedmont sites.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 355 AM Saturday...

A much quieter weather pattern continues across the area by Tuesday
morning as high pressure settles into the Mid Atlantic region. This
should allow for near normal temperatures, with afternoon highs
generally in the upper 50s/low 60s while overnight lows dip into the
30s/low 40s with primarily clear skies expected through mid week.

By late Wednesday, high pressure splits, with the southern end
shifting offshore while a the parent high is forced further east
through the Great Lakes region, where a brief period of Cold Air
damming along the lee side of the Appalachians will be possible
Wednesday. At this point, synoptic scale models continue to diverge
fairly significantly, with the ECMWF keeping the SFC High a bit
stronger and entrenched across central NC (and the southern stream
disturbances a bit further south) compared to its counterparts the
GFS/CMC, which tend to aggravate a series of weak southern stream
disturbances Wed/Thur. For now, have trended a bit closer to the NA
solutions, introducing CHC/SCHC POPs Wednesday night and Thursday,
with more widespread precipitation likely to overspread late
Thursday night into Friday as weak shortwaves attempt to spark sfc
cyclogenesis just off of the Carolina Coast, with reinforcing CAD
type conditions building in from the North.

By next weekend, mid to upper level troughing conditions begin to
develop again across the central CONUS with a rather robust mid
level shortwave likely to spark Cyclogenesis within the mid MS River
Valley late week. This low will likely occlude over the Great Lakes
Saturday, sending a cold front through central NC Saturday afternoon
and evening. Shower coverage will likely increase ahead of this
boundary as mid level moisture is pushed over top the residual CAD
Friday night persisting as forcing increases with the main FROPA on
Saturday. Cooler high pressure will fill in behind the boundary
Saturday night providing for a quieter end to the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 AM Sunday...

Lingering cold air damming over cntl NC will result in continued
widespread, LIFR conditions that will lift through MVFR, then
scatter to VFR, between 14-18Z. Showers will also move east across
the area through the same time; and these may sweep out the low
cloud and fog droplets and consequently cause ceilings and
visibilities to briefly improve during showers.

Additionally, the development of a strong, 40-50 kt low level jet
centered around 2000 ft --just above the stable, weakly-stirred
lowest thousand ft-- will result in low level wind shear conditions
until the cold air damming inversion breaks and promotes mixing and
the aforementioned scattering out of preceding low overcast and fog
through the same time. Once that mixing to VFR does take place, it
will become windy this afternoon, with peak gusts mainly between 30-
40 kts through early this evening. Isolated gusts between 40-45 kts
will be possible over the nrn Piedmont, from INT and GSO ewd to near
and especially just north of RDU and RWI, before steadily
diminishing overnight.

Outlook: VFR conditions will then continue through at least Tue,
with a low chance of MVFR ceilings late Wed into Thu.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight EST tonight for
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS/Haines/WSS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MWS
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 24, 4:02 AM EST, 51 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
402 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-250915-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
402 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Areas of fog will become dense at times this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ042-043-073>078-083>086-088-089-250915-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
402 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Areas of fog will become dense at times this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong winds will develop by early this afternoon, with wind gusts
between 30 and 40 mph likely through early this evening. Isolated
gusts up to 45 mph will be possible between noon and 4 PM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 23, 7:40 PM ESTWind AdvisoryRAHAlamance, Chatham, Davidson, Durham, Edgecombe, Forsyth and 11 more26 hr
Feb 23, 8:18 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningRAHEdgecombe13 days
Feb 23, 8:18 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningRAHFranklin49 hr
Feb 23, 8:46 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningRAHDavidson, Davie42 hr
Feb 23, 10:36 PM ESTAreal Flood WarningRAHForsyth8 hr
Feb 24, 12:32 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningRAHChatham, Lee6 hr
Feb 24, 1:26 AM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryRAHDavidson19 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2019Every river flood warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.