Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Pueblo, CO

011 
WWUS55 KPUB 180144
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
744 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019

COC099-180200-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-190618T0200Z/
Prowers CO-
744 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT
FOR PROWERS COUNTY...

At 744 PM MDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Lamar to 8 miles north of Two Buttes Reservoir,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Lamar, Holly, Granada, Hartman and Bristol. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3825 10207 3767 10208 3766 10269 3825 10263
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 259DEG 20KT 3809 10257 3777 10262 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$
28

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
344 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Latest trends in the streamflows across the southwest mountains and
the San Luis Valley indicate that water is still running high, so
the Flood Watch is being extended until Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue spreading from
the mountains to the adjacent valleys and plains through the evening
hours. There remains the potential for some storms to reach severe
criteria this evening across the plains as CAPE values should be in
the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. However, bulk shear values are not
projected to be very high, generally less than 30 kts. With these
values, the main threats will be wind gusts of 60 mph and hail up to
golf ball size. The SPC does have a marginal risk for the areas east
of the Sangre de Cristos with a slight risk for the northeast corner
of El Paso County and another area covering eastern Las Animas,
western Baca, and southern Bent Counties. Locally heavy rainfall
will also be possible, bringing the potential for flash flooding,
especially over the Spring, Hayden Pass, and Junkins Burn Scars.
Storms are expected to move out of the area overnight, and lows
tonight will be in the mid 50s across the plains, and mid to upper
40s in the San Luis and Upper Arkansas Valleys.

Another wave of energy moves through the area on Tuesday, bringing
another round of showers and thunderstorms for the late morning and
afternoon. Storms should initiate over the mountains again, then
spread eastward across the adjacent valleys and plains. The SPC has
a marginal risk of severe storms from the I-25 corridor eastward
with a slight risk for the far southeastern portion of Colorado.
CAPE values are forecast to be around 1000-1500 J/kg over the far
eastern plains, and bulk shear values are expected to be a bit
higher (around 40 kts) over the far southeastern corner of Colorado,
which could support the development of an isolated supercell. Once
again, the main threats are expected to be hail of around an inch in
diameter and wind gusts of 60 mph or greater. Afternoon highs are
expected to reach the low to mid 80s across the plains, and upper
60s to mid 70s in the high valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 342 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Active meteorological conditions are expected to continue over
eastern locations of the CWA(including the potential for strong
to potentially severe thunderstorms) into Tuesday night as latest
PV analysis, computer simulations and forecast model soundings
support next upper disturbance impacting the area.

Warmer and drier conditions are still expected over southern
Colorado from Wednesday into Friday as zonal to southwesterly
upper flow develops over the region.

Then, cooler and increasingly unsettled meteorological conditions
are anticipated from later into the weekend and into early next
week as several relatively weak northerly surface surges interact
with passing upper disturbances.

Finally, warmest temperatures are projected from Wednesday into
Friday, while coolest conditions should be noted during the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 342 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain in the vicinity of
all three TAF sites through the evening, with KPUB and KCOS having a
better chance of a seeing a storm directly over the site. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late
morning through the afternoon on Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected
throughout the forecast period, unless a thunderstorm moves over one
of the sites.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for COZ065>068-070-071.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1128 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019

COZ058>089-093>099-181730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1128 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to continue
developing across the higher terrain, spreading eastward over the
Interstate 25 corridor during the afternoon, then across the
eastern plains from mid-afternoon into this evening. A few severe
storms will be possible along and east of Interstate 25, with hail
up to golfball size and wind gusts over 60 mph. Locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible today, especially across the Palmer
Divide and the lower eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo and
Wet Mountains. This will lead to the potential for flash flooding,
especially if heavy rain falls across the Spring, Junkins and
Hayden Pass burn scars. All storms today will be capable of
producing frequent cloud to ground lighting, gusty outflow winds
up to 45 mph and small hail.

Fast and high flows in creeks, streams and rivers will continue
across the area today, with the potential for flooding, especially
in the southwest mountains, portions of the San Luis Valley, and
along the Upper Arkansas River Valley, generally west of the Pueblo
Reservoir.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the
mountains and plains of southern Colorado on Tuesday. Lightning,
small hail, and winds gusting to 45 mph will be the main threats
with storms. A storm or two may also be capable of producing hail
to around one inch in diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph. Storms
may also produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding, with the
greatest risk being over burn scars and urban areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible from Interstate 25 eastward across the plains this
afternoon and evening.

29/29

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
534 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NE BLENDE             38.28N 104.52W
06/17/2019  M2.21 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            COOP OBS...NOT FROM PUB ASOS.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
626 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019

COZ094-099-180045-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
626 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BACA AND
SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM MDT...

At 626 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles north of Kenton, or 27 miles southwest of Springfield. This
storm was nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm, along with very heavy rain.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Baca
and southeastern Las Animas Counties.

LAT...LON 3727 10295 3711 10279 3701 10283 3702 10331
      3711 10328
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 039DEG 2KT 3712 10297

28

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
651 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019

COZ099-180115-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
651 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BACA COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM
MDT...

At 651 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Springfield, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield.

LAT...LON 3732 10259 3741 10271 3752 10262 3742 10246
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 223DEG 25KT 3742 10260

28

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
717 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019

COZ097>099-180200-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
717 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PROWERS...NORTH
CENTRAL BACA AND SOUTHEASTERN BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM MDT...

At 717 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southwest of Lamar to 18 miles south of
McClave to 16 miles west of Two Buttes Reservoir. Movement was east
at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Two Buttes Reservoir.

LAT...LON 3806 10237 3793 10240 3761 10260 3762 10299
      3785 10285 3801 10283
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 256DEG 13KT 3800 10276 3787 10277 3768 10289

BC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
720 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S CHERAW              38.05N 103.51W
06/17/2019  M66 MPH          OTERO              CO   ASOS

            LHX ASOS REPORT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
733 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N CAMPO               37.12N 102.58W
06/17/2019  E70 MPH          BACA               CO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN 1 MILE NORTH OF CAMPO ON RT
            287. STRANDED MOTORIST WITH LIVE WIRES ON
            TOP OF VEHICLE AT THIS TIME. NO INJURIES
            REPORTED.

&&

GH