Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Pueblo, CO

928 
WWUS55 KPUB 220011
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
611 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

COC071-220030-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0159.000000T0000Z-190722T0030Z/
Las Animas CO-
611 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM MDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...

At 611 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 12 miles northeast
of Trinchera, or 30 miles north of Des Moines, moving northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of south
central Las Animas County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3702 10388 3707 10403 3743 10399 3733 10361
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 209DEG 13KT 3720 10391 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Hodanish

884 
WWUS55 KPUB 220026
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
626 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

COC071-220036-
/O.EXP.KPUB.SV.W.0159.000000T0000Z-190722T0030Z/
Las Animas CO-
626 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM MDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small
hail, gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this
thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3702 10388 3707 10403 3743 10399 3733 10361
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 209DEG 13KT 3725 10388 

$$

Hodanish

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
317 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Currently...

Upper air analysis and water vapor imagery shows a broadening upper
ridge centered near the Four Corners region. No disturbances are
discernible within the weak westerly to northwesterly flow over
Colorado. Moisture is seen beginning to wrap around the western part
of the ridge, but TPW is still only 50%-75% of normal over the
Continental Divide. Further east, easterly to southeasterly flow
maintains moist air over the plains and eastern slopes of the
eastern mountains, with surface dew points in the 60s and TPW 100%-
125% of normal. MLCAPE is in the 500-1500 j/kg range across the
plains, while EBSHEAR is generally less than 30 knots considering
weak flow aloft. Cu have formed over most mountain areas, with weak
thunderstorms present over the Pikes Peak region and the far
southern Sangres. Temperatures are notably cooler, with 80s observed
over the plains and high valleys.

Tonight...

Thunderstorms will continue to develop and expand in coverage this
evening, with the best coverage expected over the eastern mountains
and I-25 corridor. Storm coverage and strength will be less further
west due to a lack of moisture, shear, and instability. Over the far
eastern plains, storm coverage will be less due to a lack of large
scale forcing and steering flow to move storms into the area. Storm
development over the I-25 corridor will be driven by outflow
boundaries emanating from western storms and easterly upslope
surface flow. Weak westerly mid level flow may also be capable of
steering storms east slowly. Heavy rainfall and localized flash
flooding will be the main threat with storms developing today
considering anomalously high moisture. Therefore, burn scars and
urban areas will be at threat for flash flooding. The Flash Flood
Watch for the Spring, Hayden Pass, and Junkins scars remains in
effect until 3 AM. While CAPE will be favorable for strong updrafts,
weak shear will limit the severe threat. Still, there is the
potential for isolated hail to the size of 1" in diameter, as well
as winds gusting to 60 mph. SPC maintains a marginal risk for severe
over much of the eastern mountains and the I-25 corridor. The wind
threat does not look as good as yesterday, however, given cooler
surface temperatures and resulting weaker low level lapse rates.
Latest hi-res guidance indicates widespread storm coverage across
the eastern plains and I-25 corridor after 6 PM, with storms lasting
through early morning and dissipating thereafter. The severe threat
will wane considerably after 9 PM as the atmosphere stabilizes.

Overnight lows will be around 60 across the plains, and span the 40s
and 50s in the high valleys.

Tomorrow...

The ridge of high pressure continues to build over the Four Corners
region, increasing mid to upper level moisture into Colorado,
bringing TPW to near or above normal levels across the whole
forecast area. Moist easterly flow continues at the surface across
the plains, maintaining dew points at least in the mid 50s.
Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop over
all of the high terrain during the early afternoon, lasting through
the early evening. With the ridge amplifying, flow over Colorado
will become weaker and more northerly. Therefore, it appears even
less likely that storms will advance too far east onto the lower
elevations. Outflow boundaries could initiate isolated to scattered
storms over the I-25 corridor, but coverage further east will likely
remain isolated at best. CAPE should be enough to support strong
updrafts, but very weak shear under weak upper flow will negate
severe chances. High levels of atmospheric moisture means locally
heavy rainfall and burn scar flash flooding will be the primary
threats with these storms, once again.

Temperatures will be at their low point tomorrow, with highs
expected to only be around 80 across the plains and high valleys.
Enjoy!

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

An upper level ridge will be centered near the Four Corners Tue and
Wed, and then the center is forecast to shift southward.  On Tue and
Wed, showers/tstms are expected to mainly be found over the mtns and
high valleys. Temps on Tue will be below average, with highs in the
80s over the plains, and in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the high
valleys.  Highs on Wed will be warmer and closer to average, with
readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s across the plains, and in
the lower and mid 80s in the high valleys.  Thu temps look similar
to those on Wed, and showers/tstms should mostly affect areas
from around the I-25 corridor and westward.

Fri and Sat the upper ridge center is expected to move into southern
AZ, and then shifts into southern CA by Sun.  A tap of moisture from
the south is expected to be streaming over CO on Fri and Sat, with
good chances for precip over the mtns and high valleys to continue,
with precip moving across the plains in the evening.  Also, a
passing disturbance to the north on Sat could help push storm over
the plains in the evening.  Sun looks a little drier, especially
over the mtns and high valleys, while a dry line may set up over the
far southeast plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 314 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight through 09Z
over and near KCOS and KPUB. Storms will be capable of producing
brief heavy rainfall which could temporarily reduce conditions to
MVFR. Gusty and erratic winds will also be possible under and near
thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms will be less likely at
KALS, with only vicinity coverage expected. Thunderstorms will
develop over the mountains again tomorrow afternoon, but chances
over KCOS and KPUB will be less. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected at the TAF sites with winds less than 15 knots.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT Monday for COZ072>075-079-080-
087.

&&

SHORT TERM...LINE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...LINE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1111 AM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

COZ058>089-093>099-221715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1111 AM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon through tonight across the southeast mountains and
adjacent plains.  The main threat with thunderstorms today will be
locally heavy rainfall with the potential to cause flash flooding,
especially for susceptible burn scars such as Junkins, Spring and
Hayden Pass.  A Flash Flood Watch has been posted for this afternoon
through late tonight for these more susceptible burn scars.  Other
locations which received heavy rainfall yesterday will also be prone
to more localized flash flooding should they receive additional
heavy rainfall this afternoon or tonight.

One or two thunderstorms across the southeast mountains and plains
could become severe this afternoon and evening with the potential to
produce hail up to the size of half dollars, wind gusts up to 70 mph
and lightning.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the western mountains
today where gusty winds and lightning will be the primary storm
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated to numerous primarily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms, favoring higher terrain locations, will be
possible each day from Monday into Saturday.

The primary threats with thunderstorms will be locally heavy
rainfall, lightning, and wind gusts around 50 mph. There will also
be a risk for flash flooding on recent burn scars such as Spring,
Junkins and Hayden Pass. Finally, any stronger storms will be
capable of generating hail to around the size of nickels.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible across the southeast mountains and plains this afternoon
and tonight.

12/12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
442 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

COZ084-085-212330-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
442 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM MDT...

At 441 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
Rush and Calhan, or 33 miles southwest of Limon, moving northeast at
20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Calhan, Ramah and Rush.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3884 10406 3881 10418 3913 10439 3913 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 245DEG 19KT 3893 10414

29

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
514 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

COZ081-084-085-212345-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
514 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM MDT...

At 513 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gleneagle, or 15 miles north of Colorado Springs, moving east at 15
mph.

Heavy rain, penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Colorado Springs, Monument, Air Force Academy, Palmer
Lake, Black Forest and Gleneagle.

LAT...LON 3898 10455 3894 10489 3911 10496 3913 10490
      3913 10461
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 253DEG 11KT 3906 10484

mw

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
531 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

COZ087-088-220000-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
531 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HUERFANO AND
NORTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

At 530 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Walsenburg, or 19 miles northeast of Indian Creek on the southeastern
Spring Brun Scar, moving east at 20 mph.

Heavy rain, penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Walsenburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3746 10488 3765 10488 3771 10430 3742 10428
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 269DEG 19KT 3757 10478

mw

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
533 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

COZ088-094-220000-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
533 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

At 532 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Trinchera, or 25 miles east of Trinidad, moving east at 15 mph.

Heavy rain, penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Branson and Trinchera.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10414 3721 10414 3728 10360 3700 10358
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 266DEG 21KT 3713 10404

mw

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
602 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

COZ084-220030-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
602 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM MDT...

At 601 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Peyton, or 23 miles northeast of Colorado Springs, moving east at 35
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Calhan and Peyton.

LAT...LON 3899 10419 3899 10466 3913 10464 3913 10420
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 266DEG 29KT 3909 10454

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
602 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

COZ094-220030-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
602 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

At 601 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Branson, or 25 miles north of Des Moines, moving east
northeast at 15 mph.

Heavy rain, nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Branson and open country of south central Las Animas County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10398 3719 10399 3728 10396 3740 10359
      3700 10355
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 252DEG 19KT 3713 10388

mw