Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Pueblo, CO

842 
WGUS75 KPUB 230037
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
637 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019

COC027-101-230300-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-190723T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Custer CO-Pueblo CO-
637 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL CUSTER AND WEST CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES...

At 631 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
has moved off the Junkins Burn Scar. Radar estimates 1 to 1.3 inches 
of rain has already fallen, with Flash Flooding ongoing across the 
burn scar. 

At 603 PM MDT, Custer County emergency management reported rock and 
mudslides along Highway 96, from Highway 165 towards Wetmore, with 
multiple vehicles stranded. 

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Junkins Burn Scar.

This includes the following streams and drainages...South Red
Creek...Middle Creek...Yellow Creek...Smith Creek...Bishop Creek...
Junkins Park Creek...South Fork North Hardscrabble Creek...Lefthand
Fork North Creek...South Hardscrabble Creek...Ditch Creek...North
Saint Charles River...Middle Hardscrabble Creek...Hardscrabble
Creek...North Hardscrabble Creek and Middle Red Creek.

This includes the following areas, Hardscrabble Creek near County
Road 389 and County Road 165 near Junkins Burn Scar.
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.

Move away from recently burned areas. Life-threatening flooding of
creeks, roads and normally dry arroyos is likely. The heavy rains
will likely trigger rockslides, mudslides and debris flows in steep
terrain, especially in and around these areas.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3822 10509 3812 10500 3809 10511 3810 10523
      3813 10524

$$

mw

090 
WGUS75 KPUB 230124
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
724 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019

COC027-101-230300-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-190723T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Custer CO-Pueblo CO-
724 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL CUSTER AND WEST CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES...

At 716 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain has moved off 
Junkins Burn Scar. With radar estimates of over and inch of 
rain over the past 2 hours, Flash Flooding is occurring.

At 642 PM MDT, Emergency Management indicates multiple road closures 
due to flooding, including Highway 96 in both directions between 
Wetmore and Westcliffe. There are also reports of multiple stranded 
vehicles along Hardscrabble due to rock and mudslides. 

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Junkins Burn Scar.

This includes the following streams and drainages...South Red
Creek...Middle Creek...Yellow Creek...Smith Creek...Bishop Creek...
Junkins Park Creek...South Fork North Hardscrabble Creek...Lefthand
Fork North Creek...South Hardscrabble Creek...Ditch Creek...North
Saint Charles River...Middle Hardscrabble Creek...Hardscrabble
Creek...North Hardscrabble Creek and Middle Red Creek.

This includes the following areas, Hardscrabble Creek near County
Road 389 and County Road 165 near Junkins Burn Scar.
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

Move away from recently burned areas. Life-threatening flooding of
creeks, roads and normally dry arroyos is likely. The heavy rains
will likely trigger rockslides, mudslides and debris flows in steep
terrain, especially in and around these areas.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3822 10509 3812 10500 3809 10511 3810 10523
      3813 10524

$$

mw

727 
WGUS75 KPUB 230252
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
852 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019

COC027-101-230302-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-190723T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Custer CO-Pueblo CO-
852 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL CUSTER AND WEST CENTRAL
PUEBLO COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 900 PM MDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3822 10509 3812 10500 3809 10511 3810 10523
      3813 10524

$$

mw

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
258 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Storms this afternoon have been mainly focused over the mtns along
the Continental Divide, with a few also over the Sangre de Cristo
Mtns. The HRRR and NAM continue to show the focus for thunderstorms
mainly staying over the mountains and high valleys this evening.
However, they do have a few storms making their way out over the I-
25 corridor.  The HRRR and NAM Nest shows the potential for heavy
rain over the Hayden Pass and Spring burn scars this evening, so
will have to monitor this possibility. By midnight, most or all of
the convection is expected to end.  There could be a few strong
storms as well this evening, with hail and strong wind gusts.

On Tue, the upper ridge center will be over eastern UT and far
western CO.  There will still be plenty of moisture over the area,
and similar to today, the mtns and high valleys should see the most
showers and thunderstorm activity.  With the I-25 corridor and
eastern plains probably not seeing any activity through at least
midafternoon.  By late afternoon a couple storms may try to move off
the mtns and into the I-25 corridor, especially over El Paso County.
Temps acrs the southeast plains on Tue are expected to be a little
warmer, with highs in the 80s, with maybe some lower 90s, while the
high valleys should mostly be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.Tuesday night into Wednesday...Upper high over the Four Corners
region begins to move southward. Flow aloft becomes more westerly
on Wednesday with a shortwave moving across the northern Rockies.
Precipitable waters decrease over the plains as surface high
moves to the east and a weak lee trough develops. Still enough
moisture for diurnal thunderstorms to develop over the
mountains. Flow aloft remains northerly and thunderstorms will be
less likely to move off of the mountains. Like the NBM grids with
the higher PoPs and modest QPF as expect thunderstorms to be
fairly widespread but with light QPF. Temperatures continue to
increase over the plains to be near average.

.Thursday...As the trough moves to the east into the northern High
Plains, a weak cold front can may into the eastern plains. Weak
upslope behind the front will increase low level moisture. Higher
QPF along the eastern mountains in the NBM hints add the more
abundant low level moisture along with an increase in moisture
aloft. Temperatures remain near seasonal values.

.Friday through Monday...Upper high drifts southward to be
centered over Arizona. Flow aloft becomes more westerly with drier
air aloft gradually moving into the region. Still enough moisture
for diurnal convection to develop over the mountains. With
westerly flow aloft, convection has a better chance of moving off
of the mountains. Will have to watch for another weak cold front
passage over the plains as the upper trough moves into the
northern High Plains over the weekend. Upslope behind a cold
front could bring increased moisture to the plains. -PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019

KCOS could see some showers/tstms in the vicinity early this
evening, otherwise VFR conditions are expected thru the next 24 hrs.
KPUB could see some showers/tstms move close to the vicinity between
about 02Z and 05Z, but chances look fairly low at this time.
Otherwise, KPUB should see VFR conditions the next 24 hrs.  KALS
cloud see some showers/tstms in the vicininty through about 04Z this
evening, and then again late Tue afternoon,  otherwise VFR
conditions are expected.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1101 AM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019

COZ058>089-093>099-231715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1101 AM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop across the
mountains today, with a few storms moving off into the I-25
corridor late this afternoon and evening. The main threats with
thunderstorms will be locally heavy rainfall, and lightning. One
or two strong to severe storms will be possible along and west of
I-25, where hail up to the size of half dollars, and wind gusts
up to 60 mph will be possible with the more rapidly developing and
intense storms. Flash flooding will be possible across the new
burn scars today, particularly Hayden Pass, Junkins and Spring,
if a stronger storm impacts these areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day
over the mountains, with thunderstorm activity increasing for the
southeast plains by mid to late week, as another front moves
through the region. The main threat with thunderstorms each day
will be locally heavy rainfall and lightning, with localized flash
flooding possible on burn scars if they are directly impacted by
a stronger storm. Some brief small hail and gusty winds up to 50
mph, will be possible with the stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible across the southeast mountains and Interstate 25
corridor this afternoon and evening.

28/28

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
343 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019

COZ078>080-222230-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft CO-
343 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM MDT...

At 342 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles west of Junkins Burn Scar, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Silver Cliff and Rosita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3813 10543 3818 10530 3803 10517 3795 10535
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 335DEG 5KT 3810 10533

Heavener

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
407 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019

COZ078-079-222300-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
407 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FREMONT AND NORTH
CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

At 407 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles west of Junkins Burn Scar, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Silver Cliff and Westcliffe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3811 10543 3820 10557 3826 10542 3826 10534
      3818 10522
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 314DEG 6KT 3817 10539

Heavener

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
433 PM MDT MON JUL 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 N WESTCLIFFE          38.19N 105.47W
07/22/2019                   CUSTER             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL NEAR LAKE
            DEWEESE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
502 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019

COZ072-078-222345-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
502 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM MDT...

At 502 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles south of Texas Creek, or 16 miles southeast of Hayden Pass Burn
Scar, moving west at 5 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Westcliffe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 10546 3816 10541 3811 10558 3822 10563
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 071DEG 6KT 3818 10551

Heavener

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
526 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019

COZ078>080-083-086-230015-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft CO-
526 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HUERFANO...SOUTHERN
FREMONT...NORTHEASTERN CUSTER AND WEST CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES UNTIL
615 PM MDT...

At 526 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Junkins Burn Scar, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Heavy rain, penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Junkins Burn Scar, Beulah and Wetmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3820 10530 3829 10515 3808 10489 3794 10513
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 323DEG 19KT 3819 10519

mw

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
527 PM MDT MON JUL 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TORNADO          4 N SILVER CLIFF        38.20N 105.46W
07/22/2019                   CUSTER             CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CUSTER COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE REPORTING POWER
            LINES DOWN AND POSSIBLE PROPANE LEAK. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&