Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
228 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sun. SPC has put much of the
forecast area under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch (number 337) until
11 pm tonight. Very warm and unstable air will clash with some of
the coldest air the region has ever seen during the month of June.
This is not only powering the thunderstorms, but there should be
plenty of wind associated with the cold front. This will last
through Friday, although there should be a brief lull in the
coldest part of the morning, from sunrise to mid-morning. Then
very windy conditions should return. Local study keeps the
criteria in the Wind Advisory range. There is also a risk of
blowing dust after a couple of dry days in the Snake River plain.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue on Fri, although not to
the magnitude of tonight. On Saturday, as the cold front continues
its eastward track, showers will be more limited to the eastern
and northern highlands. The cold air will have settled in, with
high temperatures only reaching the 50s for places in the eastern
Magic Valley and Snake River plain. This of course means
accumulating snow in the higher elevations, but the precipitation
is not heavy for the locations expected to snow, so a storm total up
to 3 inches is about the limit for Fri night to Sat morning.
Conditions start to clear Sat night after midnight, and record to
near-record cold for this time of year is likely. Frost is nearly
likely for Sun morning. Messick

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Thursday. Ridging aloft will
prevail over the region through about mid-week, bringing mostly
clear skies and warmer temperatures. Starting Wednesday, a cutoff
low will begin to fill and lift through California ahead of a
shortwave trough around 140W. GFS is indicating showers Wednesday
night across southeast Idaho, while the ECMWF is dry. Both models
ramp up convection Thursday afternoon as the trough swings through
the region. Hinsberger

&&

.AVIATION...Main concern will be for severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening while a cold front pushes through around 03Z
to 06Z. VFR conditions should prevail, but a passing shower could
briefly drop visibility below VFR. In the post-frontal airmass,
there will be a greater potential for MVFR ceilings beginning around
sunrise tomorrow, particularly at KSUN and KDIJ and maybe KIDA. MOS
guidance is bringing the strongest winds late tonight as pressure
gradient remains tight over the region behind the cold front.
Hinsberger

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Wood River in Hailey and the Lost River at Howell
Ranch (near Chilly Barton Flat) continue to be in or near minor
flood stage, and so the Warning and Advisory continue. All points
along the Wood, Little Wood, and both Big and Little Lost Rivers
will continue with rising stages due to snow melt until Fri night.
At that point, much colder air, bordering record cold for the
month of June, will severely slow melting and give the rivers a
chance at partial recovery to below even action stage. Snow melt
is not done, however, and expect the sunny skies next week to
bring back higher stages. Messick

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 PM MDT Friday for
IDZ052-053.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Friday for IDZ056>058-
062>065.

Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 10 PM MDT Friday for IDZ051-054-055.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1141 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2019

IDZ060-061-063-061815-
Bear Lake Valley ID-Bear River Range ID-Caribou Range ID-
1141 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2019

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER BEAR LAKE...

At 1139 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking thunderstorms from near
Saint Charles south to near Laketown, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Frequent lightning and winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Montpelier, Bear Lake, Saint Charles, Dingle, Paris, Bloomington,
Ovid, Border Summit, Geneva, Fish Haven, Geneva Summit and Pegram.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near Bear Lake, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 11151 4229 11152 4244 11105 4200 11105
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 245DEG 32KT 4219 11137

JKEYES

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1256 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2019

IDZ054>057-062000-
Eastern Magic Valley ID-Raft River Region ID-
Southern Hills/Albion Mountains ID-Lower Snake River Plain ID-
1256 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2019

...LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING AMERICAN
FALLS RESERVOIR AND LAKE WALCOTT...

At 1253 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from near Yale to just west of American
Falls, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Hail up to around one half inch, winds over 30 mph and lightning
will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
American Falls, Neeley, American Falls Reservoir, Lake Walcott,
Aberdeen, Cold Water Rest Area, Pocatello Airport, Sterling, Yale
Rest Area, Pilar Butte, Idahome and Massacre Rocks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near American Falls Reservoir or Lake Walcott, get out of
the water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning
can strike out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move
to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4238 11333 4247 11352 4318 11303 4299 11250
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 220DEG 25KT 4253 11333

JKEYES

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