Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
608 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure passing well to the north of the region
will push a cold front through the area this evening. High
pressure will build into the Mid-Atlantic Saturday into early
Sunday. Weak low pressure will pass to the south of the forecast
area late Sunday into early Monday. High pressure will return
Tuesday into early Wednesday then another cold front approaches
and crosses the region from the north early Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A cold front extended along the Interstate 81 Corridor in
Pennsylvania and Maryland around 6:00 PM. The boundary will
continue to move to the east and it should pass off the coast by
10 o'clock or so.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue ahead of the
boundary. The thunderstorms will be accompanied by lightning,
small hail and perhaps some wind gusts in excess of 35 MPH.

Once the front passes, the precipitation will come to an end
and the sky is expected to become partly cloudy.

The south to southwest wind will shift to the west with the
arrival of the cold front. Temperatures will begin to drop and
they should fall to the upper 30s and lower 40s in much of our
region by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Cold air advection will be the main story on Saturday. Dry,
northwesterly flow is expected in the wake of the cold front
this evening. There is potential for lake effect showers to
develop. However, it is unlikely that these will reach as far SE
as our area.

With a tight pressure gradient, expect winds gusting around 30
mph across the region, with higher gusts possible in the higher
terrain of the Poconos and NW NJ.

Temperatures are expected to be around 5 degrees below normal,
with highs ranging from the upper 30s in the Poconos to near 50
along the coast and in portions of Delmarva.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sat night and Sunday...High pressure builds over the area late
Saturday and then moves offshore Sunday. Fair weather is
expected, but clouds will increase later Sunday afternoon. Highs
Sunday will be mostly in the low/mid 40s, so some 6 to 8
degrees below normal.

Sunday night/Monday...Weak low pressure is shown by the NAM/GFS
models moving across Delmarva and srn NJ. A band of (mostly)
light QPF is being painted across the area with somewhat
marginal rain/snow temperatures. The trend for these two models
is somewhat great QPF that previously shown. The CMC/ECMWF
models are showing the low, but much lighter QPF. Right now,
this appears to be the better fit with the pattern, so we'll
just keep some slight chc or very low chc pops for these periods
attm. Temperatures will remain 5 degrees or so below normal,
with highs Monday in the mid/upper 40s in most areas with low
40s across the north.

Monday night thru Wednesday...A return to dry weather with high
pressure once again building across the region. Temperatures
will be mostly in the upper 40s to around 50 both Tue/Wed, so
readings a little below normal. Lows will be in the 20s Mon
night and upper 20s/low 30s for Tue night.

Wednesday night/Friday...Models show an upper trough crossing
the Middle Atlantic. The diverse solutions show that some light
qpf is possible across the area, so some slight chc pops are
included in the fcst. Temperatures will likely be warm enough by
then for rain. Highs in the low/mid 50s for Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This evening: Showers and thunderstorms are expected with brief
MVFR or IFR conditions. A few of the stronger storms could
produce strong and gusty winds, but potential is too low to
include that in the TAFs at this time.

Tonight: Cold front arrives between 23 and 03Z at the TAF
sites, bringing an abrupt shift to northwesterly winds and a
quick improvement back to VFR conditions. Northwesterly winds
may gust up to 20 kt within the first few hours of the initial
wind shift, but should settle at 10 to 15 kt for the overnight
hours.

Saturday: VFR conditions are expected through the day. West
northwesterly winds will increase once again during the morning
and could gust around 25 kt for most of the day.

Outlook...

Sat night thru Sunday...VFR expected. Northwest winds around 10
kts.

Sun night thru Monday...Restrictions possible with light snow
and rain especially KILG/KMIV/KACY.

Mon night thru Wed...Mostly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue
through tomorrow. On the Delaware Bay, there may be a brief lull
in SCA winds this evening, but the lull should be less than 6
hours, so have continued the SCA through the day tomorrow.

Some thunderstorms this evening will be capable of producing
strong wind gusts around 40 kt.

Outlook...

Sat night...SCA conditions diminishing. Fair.

Sunday...Sub-SCA. Fair.

Sunday night thru Monday...Sub-SCA. Rain/snow possible.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ450-451.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431.

&&

Synopsis...Staarmann
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...O'Hara
Aviation...Johnson/O'Hara/Iovino
Marine...Johnson/O'Hara

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
310 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106-161915-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-
Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
310 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New
Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and
southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-161915-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
310 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Some of the thunderstorms this evening could produce wind gusts
above 34 kt.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
834 PM EDT FRI MAR 15 2019

DEZ001-PAZ070-071-102>104-106-160115-
New Castle-Lower Bucks-Eastern Montgomery-Western
Montgomery-Delaware-Eastern Chester-Philadelphia-
834 PM EDT FRI MAR 15 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW CASTLE...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTHEASTERN BUCKS...SOUTHEASTERN
CHESTER...PHILADELPHIA AND DELAWARE COUNTIES...

At 833 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from West Norriton to Westtown to
Kemblesville. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Local wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Philadelphia, Camden, Wilmington, West Chester, Bensalem, Norristown,
Chester, West Norriton, East Norriton, Yeadon, Westtown,
Conshohocken, Palmyra, Hatboro, Folcroft, Ambler, Swarthmore,
Elsmere, Paulsboro and Kennett Square.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring, and may cause localized flooding.
Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring. Lightning can strike 10
miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a
building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3994 7562 4016 7541 4023 7482 4007 7493
      3996 7513 3988 7515 3985 7525 3984 7536
      3977 7546 3973 7548 3974 7586
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 258DEG 38KT 4012 7539 3996 7554 3975 7579

Gorse