Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
702 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and potential severe thunderstorms will accompany the
approach and passage of low pressure this afternoon and evening.
Cooler temperatures and lingering showers are forecast for Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
7pm update...convective line continues to rush eastward. Latest
update will include the expansion of the tornado watch and the
removal of some of my Ohio counties behind the main line. Gusty
thunderstorms are still possible behind the main line along the cold
front.

Previous discussion...

Substantial dry slot is now working into the western counties,
particularly Ohio, where temperatures are already recovering towards
the upper 60s/around 70 and CAPE is starting to build.

Still looking at the potential for a significant round of severe
weather during the late afternoon/evening. Damaging
wind gusts remain the overall higher threat. However, it is not
often we see a 10% tornado risk contour in the SPC Day 1 convective
outlook, as we do today in southeast Ohio. Initial storms in
southeast Ohio will tend to be more discrete ahead of the advancing
cold front and will be able to take advantage of 70-80 knots of
effective bulk shear, as well as CAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg. HREF
maximizes STP values and updraft helicity in Ohio as well. Expect
storms to conglomerate into a more linear structure with time as they
cross into WV/PA, with the tornado threat decreasing a bit, but
damaging wind gusts remain quite likely. Hail may also be a concern
as well in the strongest updrafts. Convective watches for our area
are almost a foregone conclusion.

Have timed PoPs to the hi-res model consensus, bringing categorical
values along with the main convective line. Earlier rainfall of one
half to three quarters of an inch may set up isolated locations for
high water issues later, particularly urban areas, but still expect
this threat to remain secondary in nature at this time given the
overall progressive nature of the system.

Once convection pulls east with the front by late evening/midnight,
showers will linger through the night as the upper trough axis moves
into the region. These will linger through Monday in northwest flow. Snow
may mix in late as dramatically colder air aloft moves in aloft, but
the warm ground and mostly above-freezing air temperatures will
limit virtually all accumulation to zero. Winds will continue to be
gusty during the day. Advisory-level gusts are possible along the
ridges, but will hold off on any issuance for that given the
impending severe weather. Shower activity will mostly cease by
sunset as low-level ridging arrives.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 mb heights will rise Tuesday and Wednesday as a new trough digs
across the Rockies and Plains. This will push temperatures back above
normal. Some light rain chances remain mostly north of Pittsburgh on
Tuesday, but may sink a bit further into the central CWA on
Wednesday as shortwaves ride over the ridge. Impacts should be
minimal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
That western trough will make eastward progress towards the end of
the week, bringing more substantial rain chances by Friday
night/Saturday, with strong southerly flow bringing another round of
deep moisture. Depending on timing, a severe weather threat may exist
with this system. Behind the system's cold front, troughing will
provide lingering showers and cooler temperatures next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
General VFR conditions remain ahead of convective line of storms.
These storms will continue to rush eastward as a line, restricting
visibilities with moderate to heavy rains and gusts to 40kts. The
strongest storms could produce wind gusts in excess of 50kts.

MVFR to IFR intermixed with light rain showers will follow the fropa
during the overnight hours, with WSW winds gusting to 25 to 30kts.
Cold air filtering in will change rain over to snow sometime Monday
morning.

.Outlook...
Restrictions should continue through Mon under upper troughing.
Restrictions are possible again N of PIT with a Wed warm front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
311 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-150715-
Garrett-Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-
Jefferson OH-Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-
Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-
Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-
Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-
Monongalia-Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-
Preston-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
311 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, west
central Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia
and northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
as the region has been place in an "enhanced" risk. The main hazards
are damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
624 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

OHZ049-058-059-068-069-142300-
Guernsey-Monroe-Noble-Harrison-Belmont-
624 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WIND WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON...EASTERN GUERNSEY...
WESTERN MONROE...WESTERN BELMONT AND NOBLE COUNTIES...

At 623 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Freeport to 10 miles north of
Marietta. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and small hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Barnesville...                    Woodsfield...
Caldwell...                       Freeport...
Byesville...                      Dudley...
Bethesda...                       Antrim...
Flushing...                       Quaker City...
Senecaville...                    Pleasant City...

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 70 in Ohio between mile markers 181 and 207.
  Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 18 and 44.

LAT...LON 4020 8154 4023 8106 3958 8110 3958 8126
      3960 8126 3961 8128 3959 8129 3959 8136
      3960 8137 3960 8139 3961 8139 3962 8141
      3963 8142 3963 8145 3965 8145 3964 8147
      3958 8147 3959 8159
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 271DEG 23KT 4022 8137 3957 8141

SKH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
632 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

OHZ039-040-049-050-058-059-142315-
Guernsey-Jefferson-Tuscarawas-Harrison-Belmont-Carroll-
632 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WIND WILL AFFECT HARRISON...SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...
NORTHEASTERN GUERNSEY...SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL...NORTHWESTERN BELMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN TUSCARAWAS COUNTIES...

At 632 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Dennison to near
Freeport. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and small hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
St. Clairsville...                Cadiz...
Freeport...                       Hopedale...
Flushing...                       Scio...
Adena...                          Jewett...
Bowerston...                      Holloway...
New Athens...                     Harrisville...

This includes  Interstate 70 in Ohio between mile markers 215 and
218.

These storms may intensify, so monitor local radio or television
stations for additional information and possible warnings from the
National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4041 8074 4006 8088 4020 8139 4047 8126
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 288DEG 27KT 4045 8123 4016 8127

SKH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
649 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

OHZ059-069-WVZ003-004-012-142345-
Monroe-Belmont-Marshall-Ohio-Wetzel-
649 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WIND WILL AFFECT MONROE...BELMONT...SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...WESTERN
WETZEL AND WESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES...

At 649 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 8 miles northeast of Barnesville to 12
miles west of Sistersville. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and small hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Wheeling...                       Moundsville...
Martins Ferry...                  New Martinsville...
St. Clairsville...                Bellaire...
Barnesville...                    Bethlehem...
Woodsfield...                     Shadyside...
Paden City...                     McMechen...

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 70 in Ohio between mile markers 203 and 225.
  Interstate 70 in West Virginia between mile markers 0 and 5.

These storms may intensify, so monitor local radio or television
stations for additional information and possible warnings from the
National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3949 8073 3951 8074 3954 8078 3956 8082
      3960 8085 3958 8089 3961 8095 3954 8104
      3957 8104 3957 8105 3958 8126 3960 8126
      3961 8128 4011 8114 4009 8064
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 264DEG 28KT 4011 8111 3958 8123

SKH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
729 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW WEST LAFAYETTE    40.28N  81.76W
04/14/2019                   COSHOCTON          OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERRIFF'S OFFICE REPORTS NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER
            LINES DOWN NEAR WEST LAFAYETTE.

0553 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG QUAKER MOBILE HOME PARK 40.50N  81.46W
04/14/2019                   TUSCARAWAS         OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS SEVERAL TREES ON HOMES NEAR
            DOVER.

0558 PM     HAIL             1 ENE WOLF              40.33N  81.55W
04/14/2019  E1.00 INCH       TUSCARAWAS         OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL NEAR
            SALEM, OH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1902011
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1902012
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1902013

RACKLEY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
730 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

OHZ039-048-150015-
Tuscarawas-Coshocton-
730 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN COSHOCTON AND NORTHERN TUSCARAWAS COUNTIES...

At 729 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Killbuck, or 9 miles northwest of Coshocton, moving northeast at 55
mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Philadelphia...               Dover...
Strasburg...                      Sugarcreek...
Bolivar...                        Baltic...
Mineral City...                   Warsaw...
Parral...                         Zoar...
Chili...                          Layland...

This includes  Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 79 and 94.

LAT...LON 4043 8210 4045 8206 4044 8168 4063 8167
      4065 8147 4067 8146 4066 8144 4065 8144
      4065 8141 4054 8131 4027 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 237DEG 47KT 4040 8195

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