Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
440 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions with daily thunderstorm chances can be
expected through the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Warmth and humidity has returned to the region with showers and
storms generating under weak shortwave pulses in wnw flow aloft.

There remains the potential for isolated storms with downburst wind
gusts as the primary severe threat given modest mid level dry air
entrainment. Rainfall rates may also be a problem with warm cloud
rain process and high precipital water; however, that potential will
be offset by sufficient storm movement.

For the overnight, chance POPs have been retained with additional
shortwave energy expected to support more, albeit weaker convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The warm, humid pattern will continue through the holiday with
embedded shortwave energy maintaining convection chances.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A largely unchanged pattern is expected, with zonal flow persisting
into the weekend. Minimal changes in upper flow will maintain a
stagnant, warm, and humid airmass, with temperature at or slightly
above average. Once again, precipitation chances will be determined
by shortwave activity embedded in zonal flow.

Precipitation chances may increase early next week with the
encroachment of a frontal boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue as
warmth and humidity interact with crossing shortwave energy.
Confidence in restrictions at individual terminals is thus low;
however, MVFR to IFR cigs with patchy fog may have a better chance at
DUJ and FKL as moisture pools near a stationary boundary.

.Outlook...
Periodic restrictions are likely with abundant boundary layer moisture
and daily convection chances.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1034 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-031445-
Garrett-Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-
Jefferson OH-Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-
Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-
Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-
Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-
Monongalia-Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-
Preston-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
1034 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, west
central Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia
and northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible with
damaging wind as well as localized flooding associated with
thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated severe storms are possible through the week with damaging
wind and flash flooding the primary impacts. Most of the storms will
occur in the afternoon - evening time frame.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
559 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

OHZ039>041-048-049-022300-
Tuscarawas-Coshocton-Harrison-Columbiana-Carroll-
559 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HARRISON...NORTHWESTERN COLUMBIANA...
COSHOCTON...CARROLL AND TUSCARAWAS COUNTIES...

At 558 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Hartville to Mount Eaton to near
Nashville. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.  Some of
these storms are expected to intensify and may become severe.

Locations impacted include...
New Philadelphia...               Dover...
Salem...                          Coshocton...
Columbiana...                     Uhrichsville...
Carrollton...                     Minerva...
Lisbon...                         Dennison...
Strasburg...                      West Lafayette...

Torrential rainfall also is occurring with these storms and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4046 8218 4044 8168 4063 8167 4067 8146
      4065 8124 4072 8124 4073 8109 4090 8108
      4090 8090 4093 8088 4084 8060 4038 8130
      4018 8213 4034 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 318DEG 17KT 4098 8137 4070 8166 4062 8217

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