Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
210 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures, humid conditions and daily thunderstorm
chances can be expected through the remainder of the week. Downpours
are possible with any storm this week. Plan accordingly for outdoor
Independence Day festivities.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Diurnal cu has developed and now just waiting for a trigger, be it
from the baroclinic across the southern Great Lakes, elevated heat
source, or weak area of ageostrophic divergence across northeastern
Ohio. Once a storm gets going, mesoscale features will drive
downstream development. There will be plenty of energy to work with
along with high PWATS that should lead to a fair amount of lightning
with the storms ontop of downpours.

An isolated risk for severe thunderstorms /mainly downburst with
DCAPES around 1.0kjkg-1/ and flash flooding. The atmosphere will be
plenty capable for producing rainfall that exceeds urban flash flood
guidance of /0.75" per hour/. Storm motion won't be that great either,
less than 20 knots. At this juncture, flash flooding is more of a
concern than severe thunderstorms.

We officially reached the /muggy/ threshold locally as dewpoints have
climbed to 70F! No break from the heat and humidity Wednesday as once
again afternoon heat index values will be in the upper 80s to lower
90s with little to now shift in the thermal profile in the column.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The forecast does not change from previous days around Independence
Day. There will be a chance for a shower or storm at any part of the
day. With dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s and little to no
cap, can not rule out anything out at night. The convective hazards
remain unchanged from the near term with downburst and flash flooding
the primary threats given the state of the column. There still is no
large scale mechanism to key in on, so determining exact placement
especially the evening of July 4th is rather difficult.

Heat index values will range in the upper 80s to lower 90s during the
afternoon, which is short of the 100-104 degree threshold.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights:
- Summer like weather persists
- Above normal temperatures
- Weak front drops through Saturday

Zonal flow aloft with H5 heights around 590 dm to start off the long
range before a ripple in the longwave pattern drops a cold front /in
name only/ through the region Saturday. This is the only synoptic
feature of the extended to speak of. When the baroclinic moves
through Saturday, it won't offer much in the way of relief from the
hot and humid weather. Temperatures will likely just fall back to
normal Sunday through the balance of the long range. Heat index
values will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s during the peak heating
hours must of the time.

Highest coverage of storms occurs Friday and Saturday ahead and along
the baroclinic zone. Likely pops will suffice for now, but would not
be surprised if values climb closer to the statistical guidance which
resides in the lower 80s at this time. No organized severe storms
are forecast, however weather hazards remain the same, wet
microbursts and flash flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected areawide as daytime
heating destabilizes the environment and storms initiate of residual
outflow boundaries or through diurnal heating. Colliding outflow
boundaries will further aid storm development through the evening
hours. Any thunderstorms that develops could produce strong, gusty,
and erratic winds due to notable dry air aloft moderately steep low
level lapse rates. Heavier rains can also temporarily reduce
visibilities.

There is potential for a storm complex to shift out of the northern
Great Lakes in the the upper Ohio River Valley overnight as a weak
disturbance moves through the region. Enough elevated CAPE and
remaining warm, moist environment will make it suitable for this
complex to come to fruition. However, there remains too much
uncertainty on its ability to persist and the ultimate timing of its
movement to include within current TAFs.

MVFR to IFR cigs with patchy fog could develop WEdnesday morning
around I-80 as moisture pools near a stationary boundary. Residual
cloud cover and the ultimate placement of the boundary may cause
these restrictions not to develop.

.Outlook...
Periodic restrictions are likely with abundant boundary layer moisture
and daily convection chances.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1034 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-031445-
Garrett-Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-
Jefferson OH-Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-
Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-
Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-
Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-
Monongalia-Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-
Preston-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
1034 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, west
central Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia
and northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible with
damaging wind as well as localized flooding associated with
thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated severe storms are possible through the week with damaging
wind and flash flooding the primary impacts. Most of the storms will
occur in the afternoon - evening time frame.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
227 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

PAZ014-015-022-021900-
Armstrong-Butler-Clarion-
227 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL BUTLER...CENTRAL ARMSTRONG
AND SOUTHERN CLARION COUNTIES...

At 226 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered 10 miles west of
Rimersburg, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kittanning...                     Rimersburg...
New Bethlehem...                  Chicora...
East Brady...                     Rural Valley...
Parker...                         Bruin...
West Hills...                     Hawthorn...
Petrolia...                       Karns City...

Torrential rainfall also is occurring with this storm and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4074 7935 4096 7983 4112 7971 4101 7921
TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 300DEG 17KT 4101 7969

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